Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 to all these maps Enjoy your slushy 0.25-0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Enjoy your slushy 0.25-0.5" meanie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's the most realistic map I've seen from him. Is he working for someone or just forecasting on his own? it's all for the adoring public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Enjoy your slushy 0.25-0.5" just enough for Fauquier to close schools for the whole week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 it's all for the adoring public I can't decide if it's an interesting coincidence or sad irony that I'm actually taking that map seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 In that October event, I saw the difference between no snow on the ground around Rockville to 2" in Germantown (at 550 feet), just 10 or so miles away. I wish that event had happened just a month later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I can't decide if it's an interesting coincidence or sad irony that I'm actually taking that map seriously. Everyone wants it and more as we would all cheer if the NAM was right with precip. But many of us know the reality of what will likely occur. Some will see a nice bit of snow tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 One of the more promising events I've forecast this winter... Plenty of cold air aloft, but surface temperatures look to hurt the initial snowfall accumulations before either the rates get high enough of the surface temperature cools to the freezing mark. Higher elevations stand a better chance of snow (both for surface temperatures and for snow ratios). Pretty good call imo with one exception. The 1-2" line misses my backyard by a 1/16th of an inch. Could you move it about an 1/8" further s&e in Moco so I can get in on the fun please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What's up with the NCEP site? Dumb question, huh? Anyway, can't get the sref mean, but the members I can see, look to be a touch wetter. Don't really know if this is a valid observation as it was done very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What's up with the NCEP site? Dumb question, huh? Anyway, can't get the sref mean, but the members I can see, look to be a touch wetter. Don't really know if this is a valid observation as it was done very quickly. NCEP was having problems running the 12z GFS Ens. earlier... not sure if it's related or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Study this map. Topograhic influence is pretty strong in md during many winter events. You can clearly see the fall line run along the pg, moco, hoco, and aa county lines. Then you get an extra kick in elevation from damascus, mt airy, westminster, and the parrs ridge area. Generally speaking, anwhere w of the fallline > than areas east with most common setups. Edit: I want to add some of the reasons behind this too. Many already know this stuff but for those who don't, generally speaking you lose 3 degrees in temp for every 1k feet in elevation gain (called lapse rate). Mt. Airy and Westminster are around 800' in elevation and areas along parrs ridge are up to 1k. I'm at 400' in elevation in Rockville. It doesn't seem like much difference but the elevation change can make a huge difference sometimes. Just think how many times there are marginal surface temps around here? A little elevation change can make a world of difference. While I'm sitting @ 34 here watching flakes melt on contact, my friends in Mt Airy are sitting @ 32 and watching it stick to the roads. Another thing elevation does is add some lift to the atmosphere (called orographic influence). We generally only think of Garrett Co and lake effect areas for this but the piedmont and parrs can add just enough orographic influence to squeeze out some extra moisture. Frederick kinda gets shortchanged because of this. You would think that they would do well becuase they are further n&w of dc but Frederick sits in the shadow of the catoctins and parrs depending on whice direction the ll flow is from. It's really cool when you break down the little microclimates around here. Such subtle things can have a pretty decent impact on how things shake out. Well said. I'm pretty excited that I'll have my Davis equipment up for a whole calendar year to see if there really is a precip hole in Frederick County, MD. Another and larger microclimate is the I-81 corridor south of Winchester. A few pockets seem to be borderline desert! I'm just joking with that term but their annual precip is on average much lower than areas to the west and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 NCEP was having problems running the 12z GFS Ens. earlier... not sure if it's related or not. we're having network issues here in camp springs..so it's probably related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 18z NAM not as wet as 12z, but still more QPF than the other models. Over 0.2" for the airports. edit - good deal warmer than 12z, unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 18z NAM not as wet as 12z, but still more QPF than the other models. Over 0.2" for the airports. edit - good deal warmer than 12z, unfortunately It looks like it almost has .25 for most but it is warmer...dca is 36 or so during the best part of the storm. However, the warm layer is really shallow. I don't think it changes anything from the earlier forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 to all these maps So this is the final word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Baltimore's QPF Via some models: GGEM: .25-.3 RGEM: .25 Euro: .21 NAM (18z/12z): .28ish/.31 GFS: .15ish UKMET: .2 JMA: .15-.2 SREF Mean: many members trending wetter including overall mean. Just to see where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Baltimore's QPF Via some models: GGEM: .25-.3 RGEM: .25 Euro: .21 NAM (18z/12z): .28ish/.31 GFS: .15ish UKMET: .2 JMA: .15-.2 SREF Mean: many members trending wetter including overall mean. Just to see where we stand. If that's all snow it's about 1-2 inches of it. That's an improvement for the winter, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 No 15z SREF member gives DCA an inch. Ouch. Temps still around 36 at the end of the precip. (love the plume tool) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 No 15z SREF member gives DCA an inch. Ouch. Temps still around 36 at the end of the precip. (love the plume tool) how about north of BWI, MTN or around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 No 15z SREF member gives DCA an inch. Ouch. Temps still around 36 at the end of the precip. (love the plume tool) The median is .16 and most have more rain than sno because of the warm surface temps. BWi doesn't fare that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 We better hope 0z nam is cooler on temps, went warmer last run, not sure I fully believe it, but it may be somewhat correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If that's all snow it's about 1-2 inches of it. That's an improvement for the winter, I'll take it. I doubt if you can assume 10:1 ratios with marginal temps during the day time. I had about 5:1 on Saturday, and about the same for the October event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The median is .16 and most have more rain than sno because of the warm surface temps. BWi doesn't fare that much better. looks like the CWG 1-2 is going to bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 looks like the CWG 1-2 is going to bust? We'll have to see what the 0z nam has to say about temps, then we'll figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 We'll have to see what the 0z nam has to say about temps, then we'll figure it out. Dude, please...read more/post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 how about north of BWI, MTN or around there. http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/exper/sref/plume/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 18z GFS wetter than its past runs again, cooler at sfc likely thanks to heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i can't believe the analysis over .05" qpf differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i can't believe the analysis over .05" qpf differences Mix of boredom and desperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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