mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 id probably forecast an inch or less right now better make up your mind we're going to press in 2 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS a little stronger with the vort this run than 6Z for sure (at 24 hrs vs. 30hs at 6Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 http://coolwx.com/cg...0712&field=prec LOL. No chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Well at least the vort at h5 is in a good place at 33 hrs on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 LOL. No chance. Never say never even if the probability may be low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 except for being warmish, GFS went the NAM direction this run, at least qpf-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Drier than the NAM, but not too bad I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Certainly wetter a lil bit than 06z at least in MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Drier than the NAM, but not too bad I think. It's pretty bad. Less than 1/3 of the NAM QPF and warmer. It's pretty much in line with the majority of the 09Z sref members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It's pretty bad. Less than 1/3 of the NAM QPF and warmer. It's pretty much in line with the majority of the 09Z sref members. comparing it to its prior run, it's better so on the + side, it has improved from prior run but on the - side, it still ain't perty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It looks like n and w of the cities will still do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Not sure I believe that T/Td split at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Not sure I believe that T/Td split at the surface. a bit suspect...especially given that precipitation onset is around 18/19z on the GFS...even there freezing level is around 960 mb, i've become less concerned about p-type from the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 a bit suspect...especially given that precipitation onset is around 18/19z on the GFS...even there freezing level is around 960 mb, i've become less concerned about p-type from the 12z suite. I don't think ptype is an issue but QPF is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Here's that valley effect our Frederick members often cite showing up on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I don't think ptype is an issue but QPF is. yup...it's a good thing my threshold for is snow in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Here's that valley effect our Frederick members often cite showing up on the GFS. awesome. We did pretty good with the last event on Saturday, but in the October storm, elevation really killed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yup...it's a good thing my threshold for is snow in the air... That's mine for this event. Living east of the city probably won't win me any points with this storm. I'll forecast away from the NAm solution and then hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Here's that valley effect our Frederick members often cite showing up on the GFS. That's a great map. FDK sits in a big valley...basically in a bowl. People question the higher temps in summer here but the temps heat up quick with the geographic set up. As the map shows the drying effect that we always mention. City is about 180' I believe. I'm at 390' just to the West in Ballenger Creek but even we did bad with the 10/31/11 event. Locations 700' and above got the 3-4" during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's a great map. FDK sits in a big valley...basically in a bowl. People question the higher temps in summer here but the temps heat up quick with the geographic set up. As the map shows the drying effect that we always mention. City is about 180' I believe. I'm at 390' just to the West in Ballenger Creek but even we did bad with the 10/31/11 event. Locations 700' and above got the 3-4" during that storm. I work just south of Ballenger Creek, off 15 South at Mountville Rd. I'll be enjoying whatever falls tomorrow at the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the NAM plus weenie dust. when I add weenie dust to my thinking, I'm pretty sure I'm getting 8-10" of snow tomorrow at home. woohoo! weenie dust helps dendrites to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm all in for medium duration snow with large flakes that don't accumlate but make you want to listen to a Burl Ives song. I hope we can at least get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_036.jpg different view same map http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/610_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Everyone is holding their breath in anticipation of the Euro I'm sure. The GFS mean looks good, but that's a mean, and we're close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 this site only does 6 hr intervals ending every 12 hrs so this is 6 hrs ending 0Z Thursday http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h36&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest maybe someone has access to another Ukie site by the way, 850 temps are -4C for most start to finish, with -5C or less at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Everyone is holding their breath in anticipation of the Euro I'm sure. The GFS mean looks good, but that's a mean, and we're close now. this event is too intense for me to stand really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 this event is too intense for me to stand really Be sure that you are sitting down when the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Be sure that you are sitting down when the Euro comes out. do you stand at your computer while using american? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 do you stand at your computer while using american? only while peeing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The euro gives over .10 during the 6 hrs ending at 00Z. Not sure how much for a total. Ji or matt probalby have better graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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