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February 8 Storm Obs/Discussion


NoVaWx

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baises and trends are important. lwx had almost no chance of verifying their map last night and that was apparent as soon as it showed up. im not sure how anyone beleived in much more than .1" qpf around here to be honest. i mean, i thought we'd get a cartopper at least which we seem to have evaded but still.

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Ha I ninja'd you :P It wasn't so much what others were forecasting as it was the amount of QPF the models were spitting out with decent temps aloft... DCA and IAD were forecast to have around 0.15-0.20"+ of QPF, and they'll end up with around 0.1" for this event. Add the rain/snow line being further north than expected and you get crap snow totals.

I thought your map had it confined to the higher elevations, no? Looked like a good call for the most part. DC has been questionable all along.

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Ha I ninja'd you :P It wasn't so much what others were forecasting as the amount of QPF the models were spitting out with decent temps aloft... DCA and IAD were forecast to have around 0.15-0.20"+ of QPF, and they'll end up with around 0.1" for this event. Add the rain/snow line being further north than expected and you get crap snow totals.

One of the discouraging things today on meso analysis was the lack of any strong fronto/convergence/dynamics at any height... that last little event had the mid level waa power it and even developed beautiful silver dollar dendrites/aggregates at different points. It actually snowed much heavier/had better sg but today is the first time I have ever witnessed accums on any level in MD. Sort of monumental on a pathetic level.

I believe I have the metros/n md/eastern areas climate and terrain down now.. really need to do more to understand out west in LWX's area. One of the WV posters pointed out I had my terrain enhanced snowfall much too east. When I went back and checked he was definitely spot on. I was a little bit ignorant out there and should have done a bit more studying. This reminds me much of when I first moved to Western Maine last year and it took me several accumulation events to see the different ways we cashed in or even failed in different occasions. Only way I can learn and get this down is to keep attempting and study some other posters maps such as yours and obviously LWX's. I have been less than impressed with LWX's snow forecasts so far however. Can't think of any event they have really nailed but I wasn't here during the entire month of January.

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baises and trends are important. lwx had almost no chance of verifying their map last night and that was apparent as soon as it showed up. im not sure how anyone beleived in much more than .1" qpf around here to be honest. i mean, i thought we'd get a cartopper at least which we seem to have evaded but still.

Dead on 0.1" in both the Davis and CoCoRahs gauge.

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One of the discouraging things today on meso analysis was the lack of any strong fronto/convergence/dynamics at any height... that last little event had the mid level waa power it and even developed beautiful silver dollar dendrites/aggregates at different points. It actually snowed much heavier/had better sg but today is the first time I have ever witnessed accums on any level in MD. Sort of monumental on a pathetic level.

I believe I have the metros/n md/eastern areas climate and terrain down now.. really need to do more to understand out west in LWX's area. One of the WV posters pointed out I had my terrain enhanced snowfall much too east. When I went back and checked he was definitely spot on. I was a little bit ignorant out there and should have done a bit more studying. This reminds me much of when I first moved to Western Maine last year and it took me several accumulation events to see the different ways we cashed in or even failed in different occasions. Only way I can learn and get this down is to keep attempting and study some other posters maps such as yours and obviously LWX's. I have been less than impressed with LWX's snow forecasts so far however. Can't think of any event they have really nailed but I wasn't here during the entire month of January.

That's the case for most people... I ran into the same problem with elevation early on. Topography maps help a lot, but unless you get some software to help with those elevations (or you have a lot of time to get into fine detail by hand) a lot of the low-lying areas within the mountains will get smoothed out on the forecast map. Quickest way to compensate IMO would be to overlay the topo map onto your forecast map and use that for some simple tweaking.

at least you did way better than timmer

Hah! Well, it is nice to say "I did better than ______," but the real satisfaction is comparing the forecast to the true verification.

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4:30pm -- temp down to 36.5 with snow beginnoing to mix in more noticeably.

4:55pm -- went to all snow at 4:45pm temp 36.2. Steady --small flakes.

6:00pm -- 34.9 and 0.02" precip for day. Like last weekend, getting best snows right before/at dusk. Grass is tinted white, plus sticking to all the usual areas (desks, cartops...). Steady, but light, snow.

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Got some good photos and video taken at higher elevations near my house. Will post later when I get back. Some good snow (and fog) in the higher elevations of western Frederick County. Kinda bummed that I ran out of light for shooting this evening. Still snowing where I'm at now.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus

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0.8" here. On 0.20" of liquid. So not even 5:1 ratios, even though it was all snow. High was 34.2 an hour after the snow started after 10 this morning, and then leveled off around 33 for the rest of the afternoon. 32 now.

0.8" on Saturday on 0.25" so similar event today in spite of colder temps aloft. 33 during the midday 1st week of February just won't accumulate steady snow very well. It snowed for 4 hours here on 2/5/2010 at the same reading and barely covered the mulch (ended with 28.5")

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0.8" here. On 0.20" of liquid. So not even 5:1 ratios, even though it was all snow. High was 34.2 an hour after the snow started after 10 this morning, and then leveled off around 33 for the rest of the afternoon. 32 now.

0.8" on Saturday on 0.25" so similar event today in spite of colder temps aloft. 33 during the midday 1st week of February just won't accumulate steady snow very well. It snowed for 4 hours here on 2/5/2010 at the same reading and barely covered the mulch (ended with 28.5")

Sun angle ftw

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That's an inch? Don't make me add Frederick to the list with Westminster for crappy measurements.

You wanna be a smarty pants on the photo, that's fine... but yes, in the second photo there was 1.25" on the stump in the photo... so yes it's just more than an inch okay?!? Geez...

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Damn.......I should've driven north today. Congrats!

What's amazing is I am only a 25 minute drive north of Hunt Valley. I was in downtown Baltimore today and it was raining. A little lattitude, and elevation around here make a huge difference. We are all in need of a real regionwide WARNING SNOW bad!

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