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February 8 Storm Obs/Discussion


NoVaWx

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Absolutely agree. I did my best to "envision" what to expect once people started throwing around 2-3-even 4" totals yesterday. Temps were too suspect for that. Heck even with a cold surface those totals would have been an absolute best case scenario and we know how often that happens.

I set my sights on a slushy inch best case and that is looking to probably be a bit too optimistic.

But most of the mets and more knowledgeable enthusiasts weren't putting out that much.

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In this case extrapolating radar would have been a reason to doubt anything "decent" today. I hope I didn't imply that I was exptrapolating radar because I know better than that. I was just looking at it as reference to how organized the shield was and for the most part it wasn't organized much at all.

radar looks crappy for most of us.. not as crappy as nothing but meh.

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In this case extrapolating radar would have been a reason to doubt anything "decent" today. I hope I didn't imply that I was exptrapolating radar because I know better than that. I was just looking at it as reference to how organized the shield was and for the most part it wasn't organized much at all.

It wasn't directed at you (mostly towards midatlanticweather for this particular event but a general statement as well)... you're good in my book :wub:

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It wasn't directed at you (mostly towards midatlanticweather for this particular event but a general statement as well)... you're good in my book :wub:

Ok, cool. I thought so but man, sometimes you never know how people interpret posting. Worlds apart from communicating face to face.

An interesting ob right now is the more organized precip up in central pa. The name was showing 2 areas of h5 vorticity yesterday morning. One passing south near RIC and the other weaker area in central pa. Pretty obvious that the area in pa is doing it's job right now. Decent area of lift and organized precip. I was wondering if that would happen today.

One of the damn hardest things about beeing an enthusiast is accurately applying what you see on a model to sensible weather at the surface. It's taken me just about 5 full years to get a decent handle on it. Then of course, weeding through piles of runs and deciding which ones are the most likely to occur. That's no easy task either.

I'm always impressed with good forecasters. Not only do they know which models are most likely right, they also can read between the lines and outperform models with a forecast on a consistent basis.

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22-23z hrrr swings through heaviest of afternoon for bwi as the system departs

The vort passage might bring a burst but that area weakened recently. Back edge already seemingly showing up not too far off.

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