Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I kept thinking while watching radar yesterday that the precip shield was pretty much ragged the whole day. Not much is really changing. I'm sure there will be a period of higher rate stuff as the vort rotates through but we really need steady precip to work on surface temps. Looks like it will be off and on with varying intensities until the best lift comes through. No big deal though. My expectations were set properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Finally radar showing some real signs of life in NVA Hopefully those heavier echoes transport some colder air down and change my rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It's probably a 3-5 hour event here. Hopefully we can get a period of decent rates later this afternoon and get some minor stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It's probably a 3-5 hour event here. Hopefully we can get a period of decent rates later this afternoon and get some minor stickage. we punted November,December,January and now February. I am not willing to punt March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I kept thinking while watching radar yesterday that the precip shield was pretty much ragged the whole day. Not much is really changing. I'm sure there will be a period of higher rate stuff as the vort rotates through but we really need steady precip to work on surface temps. Looks like it will be off and on with varying intensities until the best lift comes through. No big deal though. My expectations were set properly. Not quite sure why anyone thought this event would come in like gangbusters and steady snow immediately. No model had measurable precip before around 2pm. This is all pretty standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 we punted November,December,January and now February. I am not willing to punt March I'm not punting feb. were due for a decent event 2/20-2/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not quite sure why anyone thought this event would come in like gangbusters and steady snow immediately. No model had measurable precip before around 2pm. This is all pretty standard. +1000 People like to extrapolate the radar before the system has even fully developed... filling-in FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 +1000 People like to extrapolate the radar before the system has even fully developed... filling-in FTW. Not sure why. This happens every event on these boards going back 10 years +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 +1000 People like to extrapolate the radar before the system has even fully developed... filling-in FTW. we're losing like 2/3 to 3/4 of precip here in dc at the least.. just seeing snow falling was awesome in october. feb naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 we're losing like 2/3 to 3/4 of precip here in dc at the least.. just seeing snow falling was awesome in october. feb naso much. You mean in terms of not accumulating? Yes. I don't get your point? It is a minor non-impact event in all likelihood. You werent expecting different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not quite sure why anyone thought this event would come in like gangbusters and steady snow immediately. No model had measurable precip before around 2pm. This is all pretty standard. Absolutely agree. I did my best to "envision" what to expect once people started throwing around 2-3-even 4" totals yesterday. Temps were too suspect for that. Heck even with a cold surface those totals would have been an absolute best case scenario and we know how often that happens. I set my sights on a slushy inch best case and that is looking to probably be a bit too optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Flurries in downtown Baltimore. Called back home and half an inch on ground in southern York county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 +1000 People like to extrapolate the radar before the system has even fully developed... filling-in FTW. In this case extrapolating radar would have been a reason to doubt anything "decent" today. I hope I didn't imply that I was exptrapolating radar because I know better than that. I was just looking at it as reference to how organized the shield was and for the most part it wasn't organized much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Absolutely agree. I did my best to "envision" what to expect once people started throwing around 2-3-even 4" totals yesterday. Temps were too suspect for that. Heck even with a cold surface those totals would have been an absolute best case scenario and we know how often that happens. I set my sights on a slushy inch best case and that is looking to probably be a bit too optimistic. People don't want to learn. Other than a nam run that everyone should have dismissed since it is an inferior model, this has been a warm, low Qpf event for Dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 You mean in terms of not accumulating? Yes. I don't get your point? It is a minor non-impact event in all likelihood. You werent expecting different? no point really. im not sure who you were addressing in your original post. the whole radar thing goes both ways as well.. last weekend we had people all excited about rd two even though it was apparent it was not going to do much areawide when it was all showery looking to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Decent snow up here since around noon, but everything is just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Absolutely agree. I did my best to "envision" what to expect once people started throwing around 2-3-even 4" totals yesterday. Temps were too suspect for that. Heck even with a cold surface those totals would have been an absolute best case scenario and we know how often that happens. I set my sights on a slushy inch best case and that is looking to probably be a bit too optimistic. But most of the mets and more knowledgeable enthusiasts weren't putting out that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 In this case extrapolating radar would have been a reason to doubt anything "decent" today. I hope I didn't imply that I was exptrapolating radar because I know better than that. I was just looking at it as reference to how organized the shield was and for the most part it wasn't organized much at all. radar looks crappy for most of us.. not as crappy as nothing but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 no point really. im not sure who you were addressing in your original post. the whole radar thing goes both ways as well.. last weekend we had people all excited about rd two even though it was apparent it was not going to do much areawide when it was all showery looking to the west. It was just a general point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Light rain, 40/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Mistification in progress here south of IAD....Some heavier 30-34 dbz returns should be here within 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 very light rain here in Merrifield. Change over may take a while for us beltway folk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 In this case extrapolating radar would have been a reason to doubt anything "decent" today. I hope I didn't imply that I was exptrapolating radar because I know better than that. I was just looking at it as reference to how organized the shield was and for the most part it wasn't organized much at all. It wasn't directed at you (mostly towards midatlanticweather for this particular event but a general statement as well)... you're good in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Light rain, 40/29 maybe the yellows southwest will change us over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 radar looks crappy for most of us.. not as crappy as nothing but meh. This may end up being nothing but this was always progged as an event that would be a late developer. I never expected radar to look great before any model had us getting measurable qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 maybe the yellows southwest will change us over I'm back on the mountain top. Headed to the coffee shop. I expect +sn ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 steady snow actually had healthy looking flakes with little signs of melting when it hit my newspaper lol... then it lightened up and turned to a rasn mix when this hole came in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Decent snow up here since around noon, but everything is just wet. Yeah, when it comes down pretty good, the grass and mulch start to get dusted. Then it lightens up and everything quickly melts. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Light rain with flakes mixed in. Really boring event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Light rain with flakes mixed in. Really boring event. Light rain/snow at your elevation? That's never a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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