PhineasC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GFS not looking too good through 15 hours, dryer and a weaker vort, precip going north. Doesn't look much different. You are getting hung up on natural run-to-run variations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the vort kinda splits.. throw it out It looks weird. 1 vort at 18... 2 at 21... 1 at 24? Ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I am looking for a dusting and a burst of moderate snow tomorrow as I look out my office window. That's it. 850s are frosty but given the overall light look it seems like banding will tell the story as i guess it has in all our "events" this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 can we really? I was thinking that doesn't make sense its not on any of the previous runs, it doesn't make sense. for tonight we can pretend the cmc is the gfs but there's no going back once we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 for tonight we can pretend the cmc is the gfs but there's no going back once we do. yeah 6z gfs could give us .3 and we can't hug, the vort at UL just doesn't make sense, it splits then re-connects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It really doesn't look all that different. It never has been as wet as the NAM. We are about two good dreams and 8-10 hours from nowcasting this thing anyway. I'm buying what Berk is selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It really doesn't look all that different. It never has been as wet as the NAM. We are about two good dreams and 8-10 hours from nowcasting this thing anyway. I'm buying what Berk is selling. If you did that more frequently, you'd be so poor you wouldn't even have a computer to post on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 If you did that more frequently, you'd be so poor you wouldn't even have a computer to post on this site. It's certain that he know's more than I do, so who am I to argue. Gotta be right sometime. Is there a time when srefs become a valued tool? They got better wrt snow, stayed about the same with precip. I think I'll ride them too. I'm pretty much riding the best model until sunup and my first look at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The NAM had the vort max over Johnson City, TN at 18 hours. The GFS has it over Parkersburg, WV at the same time. That's a 180 mile difference at 18 hrs. I don't know that the models are gonna get this one right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 LWX's midshift tinkered with the snowfall map/forecast- released around 10:30-- to revise snowfall up. Now 1" in the city and 1-3" in the suburbs. They are likely to revise that down in the actual overnight shift, which will yield the lurching back and forth every few hours. I just don't understand why they put out such a specific accumulation map so early nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Let the radar hallucinations begin..OMG there are showers in Mississippi, the gulf is getting entrained in the storm!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 euro looks same-ish to me warm and maybe 0.15-0.2 QPF.....6-8 hr event starting mid day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 FYI, IAD is 29 now...pretty big drop..I'm guessing LWX's overnight min of 33 will be achieved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 FYI, IAD is 29 now...pretty big drop..I'm guessing LWX's overnight min of 33 will be achieved Back up to 32 at IAD. 38 at DCA. 32 at BWI 6z NAM looks okay... h5 vort passage optimal IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Final call... Time to go to work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 That map is spot on I expect flurries to perhaps some light snow - no accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 06Z NAM came in in fairly good agreement with the 00Z run. It looks to be maybe a touch wetter for the DC/Balt corridor with temps generally consistant with the earlier run. Edit: GFS came in a touch wetter from the 00Z with fairly consistant temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Good to see WWA for 1-2" in southern balt... seeing as im not too far from northern balt.. happy to be not any more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 327 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 MDZ006-007-009>011-081630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.120208T1700Z-120209T0300Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE 327 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR. STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED SECONDARY ROADS. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH-HOUR COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 327 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 MDZ003>005-VAZ025>031-038>040-042-501-WVZ050>053-055-081630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.120208T1500Z-120209T0100Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH- FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK- LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- HARDY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL... WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN... MOOREFIELD 327 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN AND NORTH- CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS IN VIRGINIA. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AND MID EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...EAST UP TO 5 MPH. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED SECONDARY ROADS. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH-HOUR COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Bob Ryan tweeted that he dosent expect snow to start till about 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Street brining done around my neck of the woods. 34F right now. Fauquier schools closed for today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Bob Ryan tweeted that he dosent expect snow to start till about 4pm He tweeted that this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Bob Ryan tweeted that he dosent expect snow to start till about 4pm Is he talking a changeover to snow? Because looking at radar it looks like we will probably have precip in by around noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Heavy overcast moved in an hour or so ago and am sitting at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Anyone take a peek at meso/hires models? Im mobile and haven't had the chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Let the bllizzard begin. I have a lot of faith in radar traj like this one. We'll see if it's justified later. Here's hoping that Ellinwood busts low for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Overnight low of 26 here. Now 28 with a dp of 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 He tweeted that this morning? 5 hours ago https://twitter.com/#!/bobryanabc7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 God radar is ugly.. in a good winter id call it a batch of snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 God radar is ugly.. in a good winter id call it a batch of snow showers Snow cancel based on this Its over. Bring on the 60's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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