MJO Phase And 6"+ Snowfalls At O'Hare Airport

[Chicago WX]

I went back and looked at all 6"+ snowstorms at O'Hare Airport since 1974-75. And with that, I tried to tie in what phase the MJO was in for all of those snowstorms. For the most part, the phase is the same for each day of the storm. In the event that the phase changed, I used the first day's number.

ORD data from the Utah Climate Center and the Chicago National Weather Service.

MJO text data used: http://www.bom.gov.a...4toRealtime.txt

MJO phase diagrams: http://www.cawcr.gov...sediag.list.htm

Date, snowfall amount, and MJO phase of each day of the storm in order.

Conclusion, it seems phases 6, 7, 8, and 1 are the most favored overall (chart below). If we take out the Oct, Nov, and April storms/starts, it goes like this: phase 7 (8), phase 6 and 8 (7), phase 1 (6), phase 2 and 3 (5), phase 4 (4), and phase 5 (3). Of course there are many variables to look at when it comes to individual storms, but I just thought it'd be interesting to see this data.

[BowMeHunter]

You should be an intern at WGN. Somebody has to replace Skilling when that sad day comes and a handsome bald man like you would be great for TV.

Like a broken record - Great stuff yet again.

[Thundersnow12]

You should be an intern at WGN. Somebody has to replace Skilling when that sad day comes and a handsome bald man like you would be great for TV.

Like a broken record - Great stuff yet again.

Yeah come on in and join me lol I'm in here tonight.

[cyclone77]

Yeah come on in and join me lol I'm in here tonight.

RPM ftw!!

Nice job as usual ChicagoWx.

[Chicago WX]

You should be an intern at WGN. Somebody has to replace Skilling when that sad day comes and a handsome bald man like you would be great for TV.

Like a broken record - Great stuff yet again.

I have a face for radio, at best, and I'm too old (out of college) for internships.

Other than that, thanks.

[SpartyOn]

I went back and looked at all 6"+ snowstorms at O'Hare Airport since 1974-75. And with that, I tried to tie in what phase the MJO was in for all of those snowstorms. For the most part, the phase is the same for each day of the storm. In the event that the phase changed, I used the first day's number.

ORD data from the Utah Climate Center and the Chicago National Weather Service.

MJO text data used: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

MJO phase diagrams: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phasediag.list.htm

Date, snowfall amount, and MJO phase of each day of the storm in order.

Conclusion, it seems phases 6, 7, 8, and 1 are the most favored overall (chart below). If we take out the Oct, Nov, and April storms/starts, it goes like this: phase 7 (8), phase 6 and 8 (7), phase 1 (6), phase 2 and 3 (5), phase 4 (4), and phase 5 (3). Of course there are many variables to look at when it comes to individual storms, but I just thought it'd be interesting to see this data.

I don't care what they say about you. You do great research.

[hm8]

I'm surprised that 6 and 7 are the top phases, especially looking at this page. I've always though that 8-2 were the sexy octants.

Also of interest I think would be the amplitude of the MJO at these times.

[Chicago WX]

I don't care what they say about you. You do great research.

Thanks I guess. But what "they" say about me is probably correct.

I'm surprised that 6 and 7 are the top phases, especially looking at this page. I've always though that 8-2 were the sexy octants.

Also of interest I think would be the amplitude of the MJO at these times.

Well I believe there is a lag effect of 10-14 days for the "changes" in MJO phase to "reach us". And yes, looking at the amplitude would be interesting as well. I'll probably try to dig into that a little deeper in the near future.

EDIT: with respect to the link, also note that the temperature composites do change in some phases, in different 3 month groupings (JFM, FMA, etc etc).

[Chicago WX]

Same deal as the first post, only this time the data from the Midway 3SW COOP.

[Geos]

This is really interesting research. Good job! With the MJO into Phase 7 and supposed to go to 8, maybe will have a storm coming up soon. I'm guessing the pattern from phases 1 & 2 are too cold for big Chicago snows with the storm track further south. 7 and 8 are kind of the transistion from mild to cold across the eastern part of the country.

Wow, the GHD Blizzard went from 2, 2, 7! That's one heck of a jump.

[Harry]

That's really interesting research. Good job! With the MJO into Phase 7 and supposed to go to 8, maybe will have a storm coming up soon. I'm guessing the pattern from phases 1 & 2 are too cold for big Chicago snows with the storm track further south. 7 and 8 are kind of the transistion from mild to cold across the eastern part of the country.

Wow, the GHD Blizzard went from 2, 2, 7! That's one heck of a jump.

FYI.. What is good in say December ( Say phase 6 ) may not be the case come Jan or Feb. Plus other stuff can overwhelm it too especially when it is weak.

Oh and good thread Tim.

[Chicago WX]

FYI.. What is good in say December ( Say phase 6 ) may not be the case come Jan or Feb. Plus other stuff can overwhelm it too especially when it is weak.

Oh and good thread Tim.

Good points Harry. And thanks.

[McDude]

Thanks for posting the Midway information. We always seem to generally get more snow than O'hare and I have been very curious lately as to the 6+" snowfalls the past few years but too lazy to look it up. Thanks!

[Geos]

FYI.. What is good in say December ( Say phase 6 ) may not be the case come Jan or Feb. Plus other stuff can overwhelm it too especially when it is weak.

Oh and good thread Tim.

Yeah that would make sense! After being in Phase 6 so long during this winter, it seemed 6" snowfall we're impossible around here! lol

[michsnowfreak]

As usual awesome work. I decided to do it for DTW...while 7-8 do seem to be the most popular, as you can see a snowstorm does tend to occur at any phase. The 10"+ storms heavily favor phase 7-8. When I narrow the search to Feb-Apr storms, its all over the board, with really only phase 4-5 left out of most of the fun.

Dec. 1/2, 1974--- 19.3” --- 7, 7

Dec. 25/26, 1975- 6.5” --- 8, 8

Jan. 13, 1976---- 6.0” --- 6

Mar. 1, 1976----- 6.2” --- 6

Jan. 9/10, 1977-- 6.6” --- 6, 7

Mar. 17/18, 1977- 8.3” --- 7, 7

Dec. 5, 1977----- 6.4” --- 7

Dec. 8/9, 1977--- 6.4” --- 7, 7

Jan. 1, 1978----- 7.0” --- 3

Jan. 25-27, 1978- 10.1” --- 4, 5, 5

Jan. 13/14, 1979- 6.1” --- 7, 7

Feb. 10/11, 1981- 8.6” --- 7, 6

Dec. 21/22, 1981- 7.6” --- 7, 7

Jan. 30/31, 1982- 11.8” --- 5, 5

Feb. 3, 1982----- 6.0” --- 6

Mar. 4, 1982----- 6.1” --- 2

Apr. 5/6, 1982--- 7.6” --- 7, 7

Mar. 20/21, 1983- 7.3” --- 8, 8

Feb. 27/28, 1984- 6.9” --- 1, 1

Jan. 9/10, 1987-- 8.1” --- 3, 3

Dec. 28, 1987---- 7.2” --- 7

Feb. 11/12, 1988- 8.2” --- 6, 6

Feb. 13/14, 1991- 6.8” --- 5, 5

Jan. 14, 1992---- 11.1” --- 8

Mar. 21/22, 1992- 7.1” --- 1, 1

Mar. 4, 1993----- 6.6” --- 3

Mar. 10, 1993---- 7.5” --- 3

Jan. 6/7, 1994--- 10.3” --- 8, 8

Feb. 7/8, 1994--- 6.4” –-- 3, 3

Feb. 25/26, 1994- 6.0” --- 6, 6

Dec. 6/7, 1994--- 7.6” --- 4, 5

Jan. 2/3, 1999--- 11.3” --- 8, 8

Mar. 5/6, 1999--- 8.3” --- 3, 3

Dec. 11/12, 2000- 6.1” --- 7, 7

Jan. 30/31, 2002- 7.6” --- 5, 6

Dec. 24/25, 2002- 6.4” --- 3, 3

Feb. 22/23, 2003- 7.3” --- 6, 6

Dec. 22/23, 2004- 8.9” --- 3, 2

Jan. 5/6, 2005--- 6.0” --- 4, 4

Jan. 22, 2005---- 12.2” --- 8

Dec. 8/9, 2005--- 6.2” –-- 2, 3

Dec. 14/15, 2005- 6.2” --- 2, 1

Feb. 13/14, 2007- 8.5” --- 1, 1

Dec. 15/16, 2007- 9.0” --- 2, 2

Mar. 4/5, 2008--- 7.5” --- 1, 1

Mar. 21/22, 2008- 7.3” --- 3, 4

Dec. 19, 2008---- 7.9” --- 7

Jan. 9/10, 2009-- 7.0” --- 6, 6

Apr. 5/6, 2009--- 7.2” --- 2, 2

Feb. 9/10, 2010-- 8.6” --- 8, 8

Feb. 21/22, 2010- 6.9” --- 6, 7

Dec. 12, 2010---- 6.3” --- 5

Feb. 1/2, 2011--- 10.3” --- 2, 7

Feb. 20/21, 2011- 10.2” --- 7, 7

6”+ storms

PHASE 1……4

PHASE 1-2…1

PHASE 2……3

PHASE 2-3…2

PHASE 3……7

PHASE 3-4…1

PHASE 4……1

PHASE 4-5…2

PHASE 5……3

PHASE 5-6….1

PHASE 6……7

PHASE 6-7….3

PHASE 7…..11

PHASE 8……7

PHASE 2-7…1

10”+ storms

PHASE 5….2

PHASE 7….2

PHASE 8….4

PHSE 2-7…1

******

Feb-Apr 6”+ storms

PHASE 1…4

PHASE 2…2

PHASE 3…4

PHASE 3-4..1

PHASE 4…0

PHASE 5…1

PHASE 6…5

PHASE 6-7..2

PHASE 7…3

PHASE 8…2

PHASE 2-7…1

[michsnowfreak]

Side note...it is interesting, as has been noted in other threads...how Detroit has no problem owning those 6-8" storms, but when it gets to 8"+ lol

Since November 1974.....

6"+ storms:

DETROIT: 54

CHICAGO: 50

7"+ storms:

DETROIT: 33

CHICAGO: 31

8"+ storms:

DETROIT: 18

CHICAGO: 29

10"+ storms:

DETROIT: 9

CHICAGO: 12

12"+ storms:

DETROIT: 2

CHICAGO: 6

[ORH_wxman]

Side note...it is interesting, as has been noted in other threads...how Detroit has no problem owning those 6-8" storms, but when it gets to 8"+ lol

Since November 1974.....

6"+ storms:

DETROIT: 54

CHICAGO: 50

7"+ storms:

DETROIT: 33

CHICAGO: 31

8"+ storms:

DETROIT: 18

CHICAGO: 29

10"+ storms:

DETROIT: 9

CHICAGO: 12

12"+ storms:

DETROIT: 2

CHICAGO: 6

Reminds me of the Boston vs Detroit thread we did on eastern years ago...nearly same snowfall average but the way they get there is so different...DTW killed BOS on 3" events but BOS killed them on 6"+ events.

[QVectorman]

As usual awesome work. I decided to do it for DTW...while 7-8 do seem to be the most popular, as you can see a snowstorm does tend to occur at any phase. The 10"+ storms heavily favor phase 7-8. When I narrow the search to Feb-Apr storms, its all over the board, with really only phase 4-5 left out of most of the fun.

Dec. 1/2, 1974--- 19.3” --- 7, 7

Dec. 25/26, 1975- 6.5” --- 8, 8

Jan. 13, 1976---- 6.0” --- 6

Mar. 1, 1976----- 6.2” --- 6

Jan. 9/10, 1977-- 6.6” --- 6, 7

Mar. 17/18, 1977- 8.3” --- 7, 7

Dec. 5, 1977----- 6.4” --- 7

Dec. 8/9, 1977--- 6.4” --- 7, 7

Jan. 1, 1978----- 7.0” --- 3

Jan. 25-27, 1978- 10.1” --- 4, 5, 5

Jan. 13/14, 1979- 6.1” --- 7, 7

Feb. 10/11, 1981- 8.6” --- 7, 6

Dec. 21/22, 1981- 7.6” --- 7, 7

Jan. 30/31, 1982- 11.8” --- 5, 5

Feb. 3, 1982----- 6.0” --- 6

Mar. 4, 1982----- 6.1” --- 2

Apr. 5/6, 1982--- 7.6” --- 7, 7

Mar. 20/21, 1983- 7.3” --- 8, 8

Feb. 27/28, 1984- 6.9” --- 1, 1

Jan. 9/10, 1987-- 8.1” --- 3, 3

Dec. 28, 1987---- 7.2” --- 7

Feb. 11/12, 1988- 8.2” --- 6, 6

Feb. 13/14, 1991- 6.8” --- 5, 5

Jan. 14, 1992---- 11.1” --- 8

Mar. 21/22, 1992- 7.1” --- 1, 1

Mar. 4, 1993----- 6.6” --- 3

Mar. 10, 1993---- 7.5” --- 3

Jan. 6/7, 1994--- 10.3” --- 8, 8

Feb. 7/8, 1994--- 6.4” –-- 3, 3

Feb. 25/26, 1994- 6.0” --- 6, 6

Dec. 6/7, 1994--- 7.6” --- 4, 5

Jan. 2/3, 1999--- 11.3” --- 8, 8

Mar. 5/6, 1999--- 8.3” --- 3, 3

Dec. 11/12, 2000- 6.1” --- 7, 7

Jan. 30/31, 2002- 7.6” --- 5, 6

Dec. 24/25, 2002- 6.4” --- 3, 3

Feb. 22/23, 2003- 7.3” --- 6, 6

Dec. 22/23, 2004- 8.9” --- 3, 2

Jan. 5/6, 2005--- 6.0” --- 4, 4

Jan. 22, 2005---- 12.2” --- 8

Dec. 8/9, 2005--- 6.2” –-- 2, 3

Dec. 14/15, 2005- 6.2” --- 2, 1

Feb. 13/14, 2007- 8.5” --- 1, 1

Dec. 15/16, 2007- 9.0” --- 2, 2

Mar. 4/5, 2008--- 7.5” --- 1, 1

Mar. 21/22, 2008- 7.3” --- 3, 4

Dec. 19, 2008---- 7.9” --- 7

Jan. 9/10, 2009-- 7.0” --- 6, 6

Apr. 5/6, 2009--- 7.2” --- 2, 2

Feb. 9/10, 2010-- 8.6” --- 8, 8

Feb. 21/22, 2010- 6.9” --- 6, 7

Dec. 12, 2010---- 6.3” --- 5

Feb. 1/2, 2011--- 10.3” --- 2, 7

Feb. 20/21, 2011- 10.2” --- 7, 7

6”+ storms

PHASE 1……4

PHASE 1-2…1

PHASE 2……3

PHASE 2-3…2

PHASE 3……7

PHASE 3-4…1

PHASE 4……1

PHASE 4-5…2

PHASE 5……3

PHASE 5-6….1

PHASE 6……7

PHASE 6-7….3

PHASE 7…..11

PHASE 8……7

PHASE 2-7…1

10”+ storms

PHASE 5….2

PHASE 7….2

PHASE 8….4

PHSE 2-7…1

******

Feb-Apr 6”+ storms

PHASE 1…4

PHASE 2…2

PHASE 3…4

PHASE 3-4..1

PHASE 4…0

PHASE 5…1

PHASE 6…5

PHASE 6-7..2

PHASE 7…3

PHASE 8…2

PHASE 2-7…1

is that a typo on the 10" storms? is it supposed to say phase 2-7 or is it supposed to say the phases 2-6?

[michsnowfreak]

Reminds me of the Boston vs Detroit thread we did on eastern years ago...nearly same snowfall average but the way they get there is so different...DTW killed BOS on 3" events but BOS killed them on 6"+ events.

So true. Its one of those things about the climate around here, especially recently...even in OUTSTANDING winters like last year when everything aligns just right (cold+snow+snowcover), we cant seem to get a massive event (luckily the product of numerous snowstorms at least made the depth look like a massive storm had hit)...and likewise in the HORRIBLE winters like this one, when everything seems to go wrong, we still see numerous snowfalls.

[michsnowfreak]

is that a typo on the 10" storms? is it supposed to say phase 2-7 or is it supposed to say the phases 2-6?

I was just doing the phases on the days the storms hit, like Chicagowx did, and the Feb 1/2, 2011 storm sure messed up the tidy look of the chart lol. The MJO believe it or not was in phase 2 on Feb 1st and phase 7 on Feb 2nd!

[QVectorman]

Ah yes I can believe that I did a composite like this for the southern states snow storms in Nov and Dec and had that same issue a few times lol

[Harry]

Reminds me of the Boston vs Detroit thread we did on eastern years ago...nearly same snowfall average but the way they get there is so different...DTW killed BOS on 3" events but BOS killed them on 6"+ events.

I really enjoyed that thread but yeah i know it is hard to do now with these sub forums. Maybe do something similar and have it in both sub forums?

Any chance of adding Boston stuff to this thread?

I get the time i'll try and get BTL added to this.

[weatherpsycho]

Side note...it is interesting, as has been noted in other threads...how Detroit has no problem owning those 6-8" storms, but when it gets to 8"+ lol

Since November 1974.....

6"+ storms:

DETROIT: 54

CHICAGO: 50

7"+ storms:

DETROIT: 33

CHICAGO: 31

8"+ storms:

DETROIT: 18

CHICAGO: 29

10"+ storms:

DETROIT: 9

CHICAGO: 12

12"+ storms:

DETROIT: 2

CHICAGO: 6

The northern/western suburbs of Detroit are so different from DTW. Neither DTW nor Flint do not do nearly as well as the Ann Arbor to Lapeer zone.

EDIT: Doing a quick look back of the past 15 years IMBY I can recall around 20 8"+ storms.

[dmc76]

The northern/western suburbs of Detroit are so different from DTW. Neither DTW nor Flint do not do nearly as well as the Ann Arbor to Lapeer zone.

EDIT: Doing a quick look back of the past 15 years IMBY I can recall around 20 8"+ storms.

The "Mountain chain" of SEMI From Washtenaw to NW Macomb.

Dec 2000 storm 17.5"

April 2005 16"

Jan 1st 2008 16.5"

It does a lot better then DTW registers

[SpartyOn]

The "Mountain chain" of SEMI From Washtenaw to NW Macomb.

Dec 2000 storm 17.5"

April 2005 16"

Jan 1st 2008 16.5"

It does a lot better then DTW registers

The increase in elevation really helps in situations. One can draw about 4-5 snow belts through the heart of the CWA. If there is a jack pot it's Oakland county.

[weatherpsycho]

The "Mountain chain" of SEMI From Washtenaw to NW Macomb.

Dec 2000 storm 17.5"

April 2005 16"

Jan 1st 2008 16.5"

It does a lot better then DTW registers

There are many storms they do well with this area tends to do better:

Jan 99 was 16"-18" in parts of the northern burbs.

Jan 05 was around 13-15" in many parts of the northern/western burbs.

Not always though as there have been a some downriver snowstorms which we just get a few inches up here.

[michsnowfreak]

There are many storms they do well with this area tends to do better:

Jan 99 was 16"-18" in parts of the northern burbs.

Jan 05 was around 13-15" in many parts of the northern/western burbs.

Not always though as there have been a some downriver snowstorms which we just get a few inches up here.

Yeah some of my favorite snowstorms have been downriver snowstorms (Feb 22/23, 2003 with 11.5", and Mar 4/5, 2008 with 10.3" and the most thunder Ive ever seen). There also was March 25-26, 2002 where I saw 8.0" and north of Royal Oak saw not one flake. There are several more I can think of two, the only thing is, we are never so lucky into getting one of the 13"+ type of downriver snowstorms lol.

Since I began measuring in 1995, I have had 26 storms drop 6"+, and 15 drop 8"+, and 6 drop 10"+. In that same timeframe DTW has seen 23 drop 6"+, 9 drop 8"+, and 4 drop 10"+.