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40/70 Benchmark

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Thanks for sharing this, Ginx. I'm only part way through but its fascinating. Very interesting to get more details into how forecasting was done back in the day.

We knew it was coming, well at least some of us believed it. The Jan 21 2 footer was totally under forecast however. The biggest issue was the timing of the storm and the fact we went from flurries to a wall of 40 mph heavy snow. The coast was destroyed in Mass, some places and sights I will never forget. I lost all my pics except 1 ironically in a flood in 1983.

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I lived on the oceanfront in Scituate during the Blizzard of 1978 and still do. Had four feet of water in the cellar. I'm convinced winds at Scituate gusted to over 100 mph. I found pieces of asphalt shingles embedded all the way through my cedar shingles.

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I lived on the oceanfront in Scituate during the Blizzard of 1978 and still do. Had four feet of water in the cellar. I'm convinced winds at Scituate gusted to over 100 mph. I found pieces of asphalt shingles embedded all the way through my cedar shingles.

Post more. Good to see s-shore guys in here.

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It was the LFM. I was in Met class at URI the day before when my prof told us the LFM printed out a devastating storm and advised us to let folks know. He was big into coastal resources and taught me a lot about moon tides and severe storms. The morning of the 6 th I went to class and watched the difax come in with the Sat pic and analysis. He told us to head home if we lived near by because this was going to close school for a week. I got my future wife who was attending URI to come home with me at noon or so. It was flurrying but the wind was very strong NE, by the time I got to Westerly I struggled to get home through 6 inches on the ground. The rest was intense and totally insane, with a severe T-Storm to boot. Drifts were over my parents roof on the NE side of the house. I saw drifts above 20 feet in Ashaway RI. Asking my girlfriend to come home with me resulting in my son getting born 9 months later. I quit school in May after finding out so I could support my wife, so yes the 78 blizzard was a life changing storm for me in more ways than one. This is awesome.

http://www.erh.noaa....files/frame.htm

Humpin's while it's thumpin...oh how I remember the days......great story Steve!

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A good friend former Harbor Master Elmer Pooler recalls the Blizzard of 78 in a Globe article from a few years ago. I am to young and was not around to see the Blizzard, but every time I go down to the water front here in Scituate I just wonder really what it must have been like!

http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2008/02/07/a_blizzard_too_furious_to_forget/

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As a side note of this storm...I will never believe the 20.2" that ORH reported...I have seen pics (and many of them) of ORH after this storm and the snow pack honestly looked like about 36-40"...considering there was about 9-12" of snow on the ground before the storm started, it leads me to believe that the storm dropped about 25-28" here.

Having taken so many pics myself over the years of snow pack and storms, I have become pretty familair with what a 26-30" pack looks like vs something near 40" and all angles seemed to support something close to 40" here...so I think the 20.2" at ORH was a bit low...but it would have been so hard to measure in that storm because of the wind so its understandable that some stations could have botched the measurement.

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Monday, February 6, 10:15 p.m.

THIS IS A MESSAGE FROM GOVERNOR GRASSO, WE QUOTE, "BECAUSE

OF THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, I AM INVOKING THE POWERS GRANTED

TO THE GOVERNOR UNDER SECTION 3-1 OF THE STATUTES. EFFECTIVE

AT 10 PM TONIGHT, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 6TH, I AM ORDERING THAT ALL

ROADS AND HIGHWAYS IN OUR STATE BE CLOSED TO ALL MOTOR

VEHICLES EXCEPT THE FOLLOWING: VEHICLES ENGAGED IN CLEARING

ROADS, EMERGENCY VEHICLES ASSISTING STATE AGENCIES IN EMERGENCIES

AND PRIVATE VEHICLES ON EMERGENCY MISSIONS. I AM ASKING ALL

BUSINESS, INDUSTRIES, SCHOOLS, SERVICE FIRMS, AND ALL PERSONS

AND COMPANIES NOT ENGAGED IN EMERGENCY ACTIVITIES TO VOLUNTARILY

SUSPEND OPERATIONS.

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As a side note of this storm...I will never believe the 20.2" that ORH reported...I have seen pics (and many of them) of ORH after this storm and the snow pack honestly looked like about 36-40"...considering there was about 9-12" of snow on the ground before the storm started, it leads me to believe that the storm dropped about 25-28" here.

Having taken so many pics myself over the years of snow pack and storms, I have become pretty familair with what a 26-30" pack looks like vs something near 40" and all angles seemed to support something close to 40" here...so I think the 20.2" at ORH was a bit low...but it would have been so hard to measure in that storm because of the wind so its understandable that some stations could have botched the measurement.

Same with Boston's total. 27.1" is just too low.

I can see 32-35".

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Same with Boston's total. 27.1" is just too low.

I can see 32-35".

Boston probably got about 33" from what I've gathered on known snow depth data and pictures. Its possible they got 34-35" too...but I'd probably settle on 32-33" but then again I'm always a bit conservative and a stickler when it comes to snow totals. But I think I would be really confident saying they got 31"+ in that storm as a minimum for modern day measuring standards.

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No, I think it had to be a primitive global model because the LFM back in '78 was the first limited domain model...like the current NAM and the future NGM which hadn't been developed yet in '78. The GSM came around in 1980 I think which is what the AVN and GFS became.

The NGM was put into operation in the mid 80s at some point and they discontinued the LFM shortly after. Then the ETA replaced the NGM in the 1990s, but they left the NGM running until 2009 anyway on the side even while the ETA was replaced by the WRF.

the second model was called 7 Layer Primitive Equation or 7LPE (by NMC)

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My Dad was plowing snow for the entire time over at the old army base in Boston at the time and according to him the plow was about 27" tall and the snow was several inches above that even in the middle of the lot. Drifts against the building reached 8' easy. He didn't come home for three days and then he went back out and worked for another two weeks.

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My mom took at least a couple dozen photos after the storm was over and it was clear out. It had to be either the next day or even the day after that as the roads are plowed and all. This was in Bristol Ct and I am thinking that at least 20 inches of snow fell there which is a bit more than what was reported. I would love to know how much felll in the Springfield area.

However once again note that obvious stripe of less snow through the ct river valley with much bigger amounts on either side. One thing an old timer did tell me about the storm years ago was that the worst and heaviest of the snow fell very quickly Monday and while it snowed into Tuesday morning or afternoon, by far most of the accum snow felll the first twelve hours or so. I was only four years old so obviously I have no recollection of it.

The photos are with her in Florida where she keeps all the albums now :(

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My mom took at least a couple dozen photos after the storm was over and it was clear out. It had to be either the next day or even the day after that as the roads are plowed and all. This was in Bristol Ct and I am thinking that at least 20 inches of snow fell there which is a bit more than what was reported. I would love to know how much felll in the Springfield area.

However once again note that obvious stripe of less snow through the ct river valley with much bigger amounts on either side. One thing an old timer did tell me about the storm years ago was that the worst and heaviest of the snow fell very quickly Monday and while it snowed into Tuesday morning or afternoon, by far most of the accum snow felll the first twelve hours or so. I was only four years old so obviously I have no recollection of it.

The photos are with her in Florida where she keeps all the albums now :(

There is a min in the CT River valley in the '78 storm in the Kocin book...the Berks didn't do a whole lot better though...maybe 3-5" better. 12-17" vs 18-22" (and even two Berk coops reported less than that, so 18-22 might be generous)...the big snows were east. Though Norfolk, CT did report 24"...but that was south where better snow was.

The CT River in MA and N/C CT will generally get downsloped in big nor easters...you normally have to get south to like New Haven and northern suburbs to relieve that phenomenon. CT River valley in MA usually needs some big mesoscale banding that overcomes the downslope effect to get near jackpot...ala Feb 5, 2001.

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It must have been the LFM model and one of the global models back then...the GSM (Global spectral model hadn't come out yet until 1980...so it must have been a primitive version of it).

I think it was the LFM and the Barotropic Model at that time.  Not sure if a global model was available at that time.

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