Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

34 Years ago today


40/70 Benchmark

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 149
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I was living south of BWI back then and we received around 10"

Not far to the south in Annapolis, they had 14" and I remember ACY getting close to 2' if memory serves

I still remember the Accuwx mets (yep, JB and Stu Ostro now of TWC) talking about the storm days in advanced when computers were newish and even more unreliable; I know they had 2 because they said how 1 was going for a big storm and the other not so much, but for our area we were real close to getting whiffed

and we were...IAD only had 1" fall, and that was with the arctic front and DCA had 6", so I was pleased as punch with my 10"

funny, I do not even remember hearing about how much snow you guys in ENE got because tv news and newspapers were it back then when it came to wx outside yby

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was living south of BWI back then and we received around 10"

Not far to the south in Annapolis, they had 14" and I remember ACY getting close to 2' if memory serves

I still remember the Accuwx mets (yep, JB and Stu Ostro now of TWC) talking about the storm days in advanced when computers were newish and even more unreliable; I know they had 2 because they said how 1 was going for a big storm and the other not so much, but for our area we were real close to getting whiffed

and we were...IAD only had 1" fall, and that was with the arctic front and DCA had 6", so I was pleased as punch with my 10"

funny, I do not even remember hearing about how much snow you guys in ENE got because tv news and newspapers were it back then when it came to wx outside yby

It must have been the LFM model and one of the global models back then...the GSM (Global spectral model hadn't come out yet until 1980...so it must have been a primitive version of it).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It must have been the LFM model and one of the global models back then...the GSM (Global spectral model hadn't come out yet until 1980...so it must have been a primitive version of it).

Was the other model the NGM (Nested Grid Model)? The LFM & NGM were the two that I was familiar with back in the '80s but I don't know if the NGM was out in 1978. I do recall my mentor telling me how well modelled it was but that some didn't believe the guidance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was the other model the NGM (Nested Grid Model)? The LFM & NGM were the two that I was familiar with back in the '80s but I don't know if the NGM was out in 1978. I do recall my mentor telling me how well modelled it was but that some didn't believe the guidance.

No, I think it had to be a primitive global model because the LFM back in '78 was the first limited domain model...like the current NAM and the future NGM which hadn't been developed yet in '78. The GSM came around in 1980 I think which is what the AVN and GFS became.

The NGM was put into operation in the mid 80s at some point and they discontinued the LFM shortly after. Then the ETA replaced the NGM in the 1990s, but they left the NGM running until 2009 anyway on the side even while the ETA was replaced by the WRF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was the other model the NGM (Nested Grid Model)? The LFM & NGM were the two that I was familiar with back in the '80s but I don't know if the NGM was out in 1978. I do recall my mentor telling me how well modelled it was but that some didn't believe the guidance.

I think back in 78 the LFM went out 72 hours and NGM 48 hours..LFM had the storm 72 hours out on Friday..I think there was a global model too..forget the name!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, I think it had to be a primitive global model because the LFM back in '78 was the first limited domain model...like the current NAM and the future NGM which hadn't been developed yet in '78. The GSM came around in 1980 I think which is what the AVN and GFS became.

The NGM was put into operation in the mid 80s at some point and they discontinued the LFM shortly after. Then the ETA replaced the NGM in the 1990s, but they left the NGM running until 2009 anyway on the side even while the ETA was replaced by the WRF.

It was the LFM. I was in Met class at URI the day before when my prof told us the LFM printed out a devastating storm and advised us to let folks know. He was big into coastal resources and taught me a lot about moon tides and severe storms. The morning of the 6 th I went to class and watched the difax come in with the Sat pic and analysis. He told us to head home if we lived near by because this was going to close school for a week. I got my future wife who was attending URI to come home with me at noon or so. It was flurrying but the wind was very strong NE, by the time I got to Westerly I struggled to get home through 6 inches on the ground. The rest was intense and totally insane, with a severe T-Storm to boot. Drifts were over my parents roof on the NE side of the house. I saw drifts above 20 feet in Ashaway RI. Asking my girlfriend to come home with me resulting in my son getting born 9 months later. I quit school in May after finding out so I could support my wife, so yes the 78 blizzard was a life changing storm for me in more ways than one. This is awesome.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/papers/blizzard78_30yrs/Bliz78NWS_files/frame.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, I think it had to be a primitive global model because the LFM back in '78 was the first limited domain model...like the current NAM and the future NGM which hadn't been developed yet in '78. The GSM came around in 1980 I think which is what the AVN and GFS became.

The NGM was put into operation in the mid 80s at some point and they discontinued the LFM shortly after. Then the ETA replaced the NGM in the 1990s, but they left the NGM running until 2009 anyway on the side even while the ETA was replaced by the WRF.

A lot of those changes happened after I was out of the game (around 1990). I interned between '84 & '88. The NGM & LFM were certainly what we used then and I remember the LFM being phased out. I'm sure I have some old text book on numerical prediction that might have some history in it but that is neither here nor there.

I think back in 78 the LFM went out 72 hours and NGM 48 hours..LFM had the storm 72 hours out on Friday..I think there was a global model too..forget the name!

It's probably hard for some in this day and age to believe that's how far things went out. When folks talk about Day 10 storms I don't think they realize what they are talking about! I remember doing a lot of prognostication beyond day 3 for a 5 day forecast!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

By the way Feb 6 78 was the only accumulating snow that entire month!

BOS had a 0.1" later that month and ORH had a 0.2" and a 0.4" later...but basically yeah, it was that storm and then 3 weeks of cold and dry...not severe cold, but a bit below average.

There was a pretty sizable event though on Mar 3-4...like 6-10"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's probably hard for some in this day and age to believe that's how far things went out. When folks talk about Day 10 storms I don't think they realize what they are talking about! I remember doing a lot of prognostication beyond day 3 for a 5 day forecast!

Back during my freshman year at Cornell in the '99-'00 winter, I remember the ETA went out to 48h like the NGM...they upgraded to 60h later that winter and it was a huge deal. The AVN went out to 72h and then was run on a lower resolution as the MRF to day 10. The ECMWF went to 7 days but you could only get the maps for free through day 6 in 24h increments until maybe 2001 when we started getting D7 too and it was only run once per day...I want to say the Euro finally went to twice a day in '03 or something.

I remember when they changed the name of the AVN to the GFS and ran it out to 168h on the higher resolution. That was 2002 and it was a huge deal at the time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of those changes happened after I was out of the game (around 1990). I interned between '84 & '88. The NGM & LFM were certainly what we used then and I remember the LFM being phased out. I'm sure I have some old text book on numerical prediction that might have some history in it but that is neither here nor there.

It's probably hard for some in this day and age to believe that's how far things went out. When folks talk about Day 10 storms I don't think they realize what they are talking about! I remember doing a lot of prognostication beyond day 3 for a 5 day forecast!

It was better when you didnt know..in the 60's and 70's the forecasts were usually 2-3 day forecasts..weekly monthy long range stuff was a fantasy at that time..pattern change,inducies were not even talked about then..tthings were simple

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Back during my freshman year at Cornell in the '99-'00 winter, I remember the ETA went out to 48h like the NGM...they upgraded to 60h later that winter and it was a huge deal. The AVN went out to 72h and then was run on a lower resolution as the MRF to day 10. The ECMWF went to 7 days but you could only get the maps for free through day 6 in 24h increments until maybe 2001 when we started getting D7 too and it was only run once per day...I want to say the Euro finally went to twice a day in '03 or something.

I remember when they changed the name of the AVN to the GFS and ran it out to 168h on the higher resolution. That was 2002 and it was a huge deal at the time.

Yeah, I think the Euro went twice a day during the 2002-2003 winter season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's been one of those starts to the year, this weekend. Make it stop. And now reminded of this...

I was in the Air Force when the Blizzard of a lifetime hit. I remember the day vividly. Beatiful Arizona day, 80°F wall to wall sunshine. The phone call home, the news reports. "I missed it." Story of my life.

I did salvage a trip down to Scituate while on leave. The destruction still evident by huge boulders the size of VW's still resting on the oceanfront roads.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

only once 12z run..the 0z runs didn't happen until 2007 I think..the only long range model in the 90's was the MRF..went out to 10 days,once a day..the AVN went out to 5 days, I think twice a day

No, the 00z Euro definitely started well before 2007.

I just looked it up and they have been running twice per day since March 2003...so it was after the '02-'03 winter. I thought maybe it was during that winter as well like ChrisL thought...but it was after.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, the 00z Euro definitely started well before 2007.

I just looked it up and they have been running twice per day since March 2003...so it was after the '02-'03 winter. I thought maybe it was during that winter as well like ChrisL thought...but it was after.

You might find this informative

http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/blizzard1978.pdf

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, the 00z Euro definitely started well before 2007.

I just looked it up and they have been running twice per day since March 2003...so it was after the '02-'03 winter. I thought maybe it was during that winter as well like ChrisL thought...but it was after.

Thanks Will for the correction, yeah, I knew it was 2003.

Oddly enough, I think that's probably the reason why the Euro's a bit lackluster....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...