Pattern shifted in this first week of February as anticipated by Will and others...

[ski MRG]

Cold air is totally absent from North America, as usual though. Currently, you have to go all the way up to Nunavut to find temperatures below 0F...not even in northern Quebec/Labrador, northern AK, or the Canadian Prairies is the mercury that low. Unreal for mid February. We'll be very dependent on perfect storm tracks because we can't have marginal SW flow events when there is no cold to be tapped.

Yet, despite the hostile regime, it still snows.

[ORH_wxman]

Cold air is totally absent from North America, as usual though. Currently, you have to go all the way up to Nunavut to find temperatures below 0F...not even in northern Quebec/Labrador, northern AK, or the Canadian Prairies is the mercury that low. Unreal for mid February. We'll be very dependent on perfect storm tracks because we can't have marginal SW flow events when there is no cold to be tapped.

I don't care if its 0F...but a 28F SWFE is good enough for me if we can get some storms in here. Storms like 2/26/08 come to mind.

[ORH_wxman]

Here is the objective analog composite of the upcoming pattern...this is why I think we'll have some chances...

850mb temp anomalies

500mb height anomalies

Precip anomalies

Now it might not end up as cold as the composite...but even if you want to tone it down a tad there should definitely been *enough* cold available for possibly winter wx events. I put 850mb temp anomalies because that is really all we care about in terms of winter wx...sfc anomalies can vary do to lack of snow cover, a few cutters, etc.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm betting this period sucks too, just like all the others this winter. I'm going +5 or better, not much snow to speak of, and marginally more moist.

No cold outbreaks, no big snows. Countdown to tulips.

[CoastalWx]

Disagree, pattern in mid jan was the best pattern we had all winter.

No it isn't/wasn't.

[CoastalWx]

Disagree, pattern in mid jan was the best pattern we had all winter.

And what are you talking about, once again. I never said this was the best pattern. Read.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't care if its 0F...but a 28F SWFE is good enough for me if we can get some storms in here. Storms like 2/26/08 come to mind.

2"...would be one of my larger events this season.

[CoastalWx]

Now that we are getting closer and can try to see any imminent threats, I just don't see any at this time inside of day 10. I suppose somehow in that mess later next week the interior could egt something, but that is stretching it right now.

[weathafella]

I've spent my nights pining for snow that will not come. Euthanize this sorry excuse for a winter. Next year may stink but it won't be nearly as bad as this year.

Kudos to HubbDave for nailing 1979-80!

[NorEaster27]

Now that we are getting closer and can try to see any imminent threats, I just don't see any at this time inside of day 10. I suppose somehow in that mess later next week the interior could egt something, but that is stretching it right now.

nothing at all on the horrizon besides maybe another rain / mix event. It still does not look very stormy, we are locked into this dry pattern.

[CoastalWx]

nothing at all on the horrizon besides maybe another rain / mix event. It still does not look very stormy, we are locked into this dry pattern.

Well originally, the pattern supported more action, and it will get a little more active...but obviously you can predict that two weeks out. There appears to be a big overrunning or cutting storm around day 10.

[ORH_wxman]

Well originally, the pattern supported more action, and it will get a little more active...but obviously you can predict that two weeks out. There appears to be a big overrunning or cutting storm around day 10.

This period isn't really supposed to start until around 2/23-2/25 anyway...I'm going to guess above average storminess for the 2 week period starting then. Whether its snowy or not is another question.

[Tropopause_Fold]

This period isn't really supposed to start until around 2/23-2/25 anyway...I'm going to guess above average storminess for the 2 week period starting then. Whether its snowy or not is another question.

i hope that period can deliver some storms. at this point, i don't even care if they are snow. i'd be fine with huge cutters just bringing some good rain and wind...or dreadful warm coastals.

anything is better than this pattern. this is rock-bottom boredom.

[RI Rob]

Idk why but I'm at that stage where all I wan't is nice 50 degree weather. My winter bug has disappeared.

[CoastalWx]

This period isn't really supposed to start until around 2/23-2/25 anyway...I'm going to guess above average storminess for the 2 week period starting then. Whether its snowy or not is another question.

Yeah even next week may have meager QPF. That thing around day 10 looked like a pretty large event for a good part of the CONUS, but ptype is another story.

[CoastalWx]

It pretty much comes down to that cold dump into the US and the -PNA setting up. If the -PNA is too strong, then it's a cutter with maybe brief snow and ice->rain. If the -PNA is not all that strong and we can get a big branching high into the region..it could be a couple of chances of snow or ice. After that, we may begin to torch.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This torch has been unreal. Wall to wall with an occasional muted cool down

But, as Pete says, it still manages to snow. I could def see a couple 2-4" type events sneaking in during the next 10-14 days

[CoastalWx]

GFS has some weird events next week.

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS has some weird events next week.

Thursday looks so bizzare

I just want a bowling ball

[dryslot]

Another coastal with a crap airmass

[ORH_wxman]

Another coastal with a crap airmass

When was the last time we had a coastal? (that storm 400 miles offshore last weekend doesn't count)

[Typhoon Tip]

When was the last time we had a coastal? (that storm 400 miles offshore last weekend doesn't count)

I think you are wasting your time if you are attempting to run around with a mop trying to clean up everyone's tears, Will. They are gushing, doing so in lieu of objective reasoning. There's just been too much snow-addictive withdraw syndrome, an abuse put on by the - thus far - greatest statistical achievement in dark arts possible. That, combined with the native human weakness of not having infinite endurance against the infinite power that is bad-weather luck, we are asking too much of the collective denizens here ... Give them a succeeding 3-5" event, and that will be your proverbial mop. Until then, it's a full-time thankless, payless job being everyone's wound licker.

No thanks. Just ignore them for the time being, and know that there are others out here that are still scientists, and want to explore/cerebralize the Meteorology of the current era and going forward, regardless of any fix for some creepy snow zealot thing. Which, by the way, ...yeah, who doesn't like a good snow event if they are with fairness into the weather. But being singularly and non-unilaterally interesting in one thing and one thing only, snow, really for me doens't belong on the American Weather Forum.

Someone needs to create a new forum called: "The American super-myopic irrational special interest group that is solely devoted to transforming the world into an Ice Age", and have the contributory members all be scrutinized with an team of neurosurgeons before signing up to make sure they are snow driven one-flew-over-the-coo-coo's-nest loons. Then, retroactively equally scrutinize the local membership and if anyone fails some litmus test of snow-crack lust, they get auto kicked over to that site.

Buuut, we put our dreams away...

Ha ha. Seriously though, It's an insurmountable task, one that has toppled the vast majority of the poster's ability to talk about new hopes for activity ...of any kind! We've both been onto this in our own inimitable ways, how the issue really over the last month ...2 months really, has been the lack of anything happening at all - that's really what's been killing us. During that time span, we have had a lot of marginal thickness atmosphere's, where the resulting positive temperature departures - I feel - is really a circumstance that has availed of sunny-like days in said marginality. The lack of events to mute the diurnal cycles, has in the means kind of skewed the results up the latter -so to speak.

There's that, and ... as Phil and I once commiserated a long while ago, when you have 23 hours of the day at or below normal in lead-side CAD, then punch a warm sector into the area 1 hour before, and 1 hour after midnight, just before CAA knocks us back to seasonal again, then call that 2-day period +15F is really unfair. That's also not helping the numbers, and few of those absurdly warm departed days had that kind of "around midnight" crap destroying a whole month's mean. But I digress...

Much of the time, marginality with even menial dynamics in play will get one over to snow. We just have not even had that. Nothing! It's amazing... I really feel it's been a long journey of persistent deconstructive wave interference both on larger synoptic scales, and down to the interaction of local-scaled perturbations. Nothing is interacting the right way. Who knows why - it's an interesting question really... The teleconnectors were utterly defeated over the last month. The AO was heavily tanked, the EPO even went through a 5-7 day negative stint, and the PNA ...albeit not excessively positive was robust enough ...and the MJO went explosively through 7-8-1 ... YET, with all that suggestive correlation, nothing happened.

That's the problem. And, what makes it annoying for those that like sensible - as in make f* sense - results, nothing happened before that teleconnector supported era, either. Never a better example of damned if you do, damned if you don't. It's just been a season that as a fractal random emergent property of all scales great and small, a cosmic dildo was lubed up and pointed at event frequency with the precision of an electron tunneling microscope.

But, hey...if we can come through 4 weeks of the above teleconnector spread and achieve the extreme unlikeliness of maintaining positive temperatures, and lack of any precipitation, one must immediately conclude that the opposite can take place just the same.

Case in point, despite the AO having gone positive, and the PNA progged to slip negative at both CDC and CPC, and the NAO ...having never helped us thus far this season and still progged not to do so, the EPO positive... basically, every indication for a warm end of winter/early spring there is a definition for being mapped out before our very insulted weary eyes, may be now we can get something to happen.

Frustration aside, the D7-12 has a bit of a radar blip to it - so to speak.

[dryslot]

Ok, So it looks like a coastal next week with a crap airmass,Probably should have just said another storm but recouping from a fun filled night of alcohol abuse

[H2Otown_WX]

When was the last time we had a coastal? (that storm 400 miles offshore last weekend doesn't count)

Was 1/21 a coastal? If not I think 1/7 was a big coastal rainstorm.

[dryslot]

Was 1/21 a coastal? If not I think 1/7 was a big coastal rainstorm.

I thought we had one where it rained i remember some making comments about it but i can't remember the date

[N. OF PIKE]

i'd rather have dry and cool enough in the ski resorts then a pattern change to rain here with a chance of 2 inches of slop . no question

if the rain is big snow in the ski resorts then i'm kinda game but i don't want cutters that destroy what decent ski conditions there are .....and even if i'm not sking i don't want to invite a QPF parade thrown in and see how much sticks to the wall as mashed potatoes.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Tip, that was quite the epic

Ya gotta admit, it has been boring. Snow or no snow

Boring. Is. Bad.

[powderfreak]

I think you are wasting your time if you are attempting to run around with a mop trying to clean up everyone's tears, Will. They are gushing, doing so in lieu of objective reasoning. There's just been too much snow-addictive withdraw syndrome, an abuse put on by the - thus far - greatest statistical achievement in dark arts possible. That, combined with the native human weakness of not having infinite endurance against the infinite power that is bad-weather luck, we are asking too much of the collective denizens here ... Give them a succeeding 3-5" event, and that will be your proverbial mop. Until then, it's a full-time thankless, payless job being everyone's wound licker.

No thanks. Just ignore them for the time being, and know that there are others out here that are still scientists, and want to explore/cerebralize the Meteorology of the current era and going forward, regardless of any fix for some creepy snow zealot thing. Which, by the way, ...yeah, who doesn't like a good snow event if they are with fairness into the weather. But being singularly and non-unilaterally interesting in one thing and one thing only, snow, really for me doens't belong on the American Weather Forum.

Someone needs to create a new forum called: "The American super-myopic irrational special interest group that is solely devoted to transforming the world into an Ice Age", and have the contributory members all be scrutinized with an team of neurosurgeons before signing up to make sure they are snow driven one-flew-over-the-coo-coo's-nest loons. Then, retroactively equally scrutinize the local membership and if anyone fails some litmus test of snow-crack lust, they get auto kicked over to that site.

No offense, Tip... but you've had quite a bit of posts about the universe trying to screw you and how this season has been awful or the absolute worst you could ever imagine. I hope you are not saying you have infinite endurance against bad luck weather. But then again I just read all 9 paragraphs again and I still can't exactly figure out what the meaning of that entire post is. Is it to put down folks who enjoy snow or put yourself above it all?

[ORH_wxman]

i'd rather have dry and cool enough in the ski resorts then a pattern change to rain here with a chance of 2 inches of slop . no question

if the rain is big snow in the ski resorts then i'm kinda game but i don't want cutters that destroy what decent ski conditions there are .....and even if i'm not sking i don't want to invite a QPF parade thrown in and see how much sticks to the wall as mashed potatoes.

Its been bad enough and even the ski areas could use a bit of luck...might as well roll the dice on a higher qpf pattern and hope it turns out well. Its better than the status quo IMHO.

Roll the dice and hope you come up lucky.

[dryslot]

Would like to see a little stronger system for mid week next week, Airmass is just so marginal to produce snow outside of the mtns