Pattern shifted in this first week of February as anticipated by Will and others...

[weathafella]

Wow at the low precip amounts... if this was summer everything would be brown and crispy

It's winter...everything is brown and crispy. Even french fries...

[CoastalWx]

It does seem like we'll have some more storminess heading into later next week and beyond. Maybe it's liquid, but increased precip means increased snow chances, especially inland.

[Ginx snewx]

It's winter...everything is brown and crispy. Even french fries...

Dust storm warning! Haboob, just like saying it.

[ORH_wxman]

It does seem like we'll have some more storminess heading into later next week and beyond. Maybe it's liquid, but increased precip means increased snow chances, especially inland.

Of the 10 GEFS analog dates for day 8...only 2 did not have a significant precip event within a couple days of that date...several produced good snow...some were transition events and there was a cutter or two in there. The two dry years were 1988 and 1985...shocker...1980s style winters stunk.

[danstorm]

Euro weeklies are pretty bad, too.

Someone just pull the plug on this phantom winter.

[CoastalWx]

Of the 10 GEFS analog dates for day 8...only 2 did not have a significant precip event within a couple days of that date...several produced good snow...some were transition events and there was a cutter or two in there. The two dry years were 1988 and 1985...shocker...1980s style winters stunk.

The EC ensembles still hint at a couple of precip deals...one in the middle to end of next week, and then another near the end of the month. There is some good cold coming into the US with some ridging up, so there is a chance at some wintry stuff.

[CoastalWx]

At the very least, winter returns to the nrn Plains and possibly the Great Lakes region. This area that was once shut out, looks to make a comeback. Also, severe wx will probably happen down south with these troughs coming out of the Rockies. As a New England native, you just have to hope enough comes in to have some of these or part of these events frozen..or perhaps we are 60 with a cutter followed by cold, which sets us up for something else 3-5 days later.

The problem is that they all could easily be cutters too. The torch possibilities are pretty good with this.

[mahk_webstah]

I think I won't have 5 inches by Sunday or 15 by the following Friday...

[Typhoon Tip]

Models still in agreement of a more classic Nina like pattern developing with colder than normal conditions possible across the PAC NW and NRN Plains and increased storm chances across a good part of the US. Hey at this point, all you can ask for are increased storm chances. You could always have a cutter, and than a follow up low with the colder air in place. But the continued analog years shown on the CPC and GEFS analog packages did have some good ones, as we mentioned yesterday.

Agreed ... and did anyone else notice that the MJO, having been forecast to decay pretty quickly toward incoherency upon passing into Phase 8, has insteady maintained, and even gained slightly over the last 2 days ...nearing Phase 1's terminous rather robustly for the sole intent to puke up yet another failing teleconnector

[N. OF PIKE]

Agreed ... and did anyone else notice that the MJO, having been forecast to decay pretty quickly toward incoherency upon passing into Phase 8, has insteady maintained, and even gained slightly over the last 2 days ...nearing Phase 1's terminous rather robustly for the sole intent to puke up yet another failing teleconnector

at this point....just give us qpf.....well take cutters and 60's on the off chance one sneaks in before mother nature figures out were cold enough and pulls out the cosmic dildo

[Typhoon Tip]

at this point....just give us qpf.....well take cutters and 60's on the off chance one sneaks in before mother nature figures out were cold enough and pulls out the cosmic dildo

ah yes, the "cosmic dildo" - wanna my fav expressions of ill-content at the forces of nature and man...

[Damage In Tolland]

You guys had better give up. Ens and pattern looks awful What looked promising yesterday has turned awful. What a waste of a winter of our lives. All the hapless hours spend chasing false pattern changes

[CoastalWx]

You guys had better give up. Ens and pattern looks awful What looked promising yesterday has turned awful. What a waste of a winter of our lives. All the hapless hours spend chasing false pattern changes

Who is chasing false hopes and what has changed?

[Damage In Tolland]

Who is chasing false hopes and what has changed?

Yesterday folks were discussing goodn analogs, decent pattern with snow shots..and the slight chance for a cutter . Today's runs have turned ugly..We have 16 days left before spring. It had better happen in Feb cuz we know what March has become

[CoastalWx]

Yesterday folks were discussing goodn analogs, decent pattern with snow shots..and the slight chance for a cutter . Today's runs have turned ugly..We have 16 days left before spring. It had better happen in Feb cuz we know what March has become

Today's runs haven't changed one bit. Loop the GFS and it shows you what I mean. The potential for cutters and also cold shots. That's all we are saying. You're a funny dude...you were chasing Friday's non event, but you throw out any shot of winter wx without looking at the models.

[CoastalWx]

If anything, this may be decent pattern for NNE, imo.

[Damage In Tolland]

Today's runs haven't changed one bit. Loop the GFS and it shows you what I mean. The potential for cutters and also cold shots. That's all we are saying. You're a funny dude...you were chasing Friday's non event, but you throw out any shot of winter wx without looking at the models.

As any good met/hobbyst knows..they don't use or look at anything GFS related..so in that respect you are correct I did not look at that.

[CoastalWx]

As any good met/hobbyst knows..they don't use or look at anything GFS related..so in that respect you are correct I did not look at that.

LOL, what does that mean? I looked at all guidance. I'm well aware of what can happen...I've been knocking your snow threats out of your hand all winter. We will probably have at least one cutter in the next 2 weeks, but the cold will be around across the nrn tier, and at least NNE..maybe us as well.

[N. OF PIKE]

LOL, what does that mean? I looked at all guidance. I'm well aware of what can happen...I've been knocking your snow threats out of your hand all winter. We will probably have at least one cutter in the next 2 weeks, but the cold will be around across the nrn tier, and at least NNE..maybe us as well.

what is your confidence we see some good qpf chances .....we have what MPM says "qpf" issues

[CoastalWx]

what is your confidence we see some good qpf chances .....we have what MPM says "qpf" issues

Well, I wouldn't say we'll have Steve putting on his sultan of sandbag cape, but it looks like one or two storms that could drop decent QPF in some shape or form, across New England.

[ORH_wxman]

Yesterday folks were discussing goodn analogs, decent pattern with snow shots..and the slight chance for a cutter . Today's runs have turned ugly..We have 16 days left before spring. It had better happen in Feb cuz we know what March has become

Nothing has changed since yesterday unless you are humping the OP model runs for a pattern more than a week out.

[ski MRG]

Well, I wouldn't say we'll have Steve putting on his sultan of sandbag cape, but it looks like one or two storms that could drop decent QPF in some shape or form, across New England.

As long as it's snow somewhere between here and the border.

[CoastalWx]

Still looks like some threats for winter weather in New England after this weekend. It seems like a transient ridge moving east across the GOA will try to dump some cold air into the US, and we'll see where it goes from there. You would have to favor the interior, but I don't see a hopeless pattern in the next 2 weeks. It's not the best pattern for winter wx, but we've had much worse all winter in New England.

[NorEaster27]

Fail, pna is blah and nao is still positive with no cold air to be found in north america.

[NorEaster27]

Still looks like some threats for winter weather in New England after this weekend. It seems like a transient ridge moving east across the GOA will try to dump some cold air into the US, and we'll see where it goes from there. You would have to favor the interior, but I don't see a hopeless pattern in the next 2 weeks. It's not the best pattern for winter wx, but we've had much worse all winter in New England.

Disagree, pattern in mid jan was the best pattern we had all winter.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Most overused terms of the 2011-2012 winter:

1. anything to do with a potential pattern change.

2. anything to do with potential snow.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm actually semi optimistic for the upcoming 2 week period...getting the pattern active has been like pulling teeth this winter but it looks like it should def get more active.

[ctsnowstorm628]

I'm actually semi optimistic for the upcoming 2 week period...getting the pattern active has been like pulling teeth this winter but it looks like it should def get more active.

CNE/NNE ftw

[ORH_wxman]

CNE/NNE ftw

It could still suck too, there is no guarantee it becomes active, but the CONUS pattern certainly would suggest that we get more storms in here.

[nzucker]

It could still suck too, there is no guarantee it becomes active, but the CONUS pattern certainly would suggest that we get more storms in here.

Cold air is totally absent from North America, as usual though. Currently, you have to go all the way up to Nunavut to find temperatures below 0F...not even in northern Quebec/Labrador, northern AK, or the Canadian Prairies is the mercury that low. Unreal for mid February. We'll be very dependent on perfect storm tracks because we can't have marginal SW flow events when there is no cold to be tapped.