Pattern shifted in this first week of February as anticipated by Will and others...

[ORH_wxman]

Models do try and force come colder air into the nrn tier as the PNA tries to go negative. They do try to have a period where temps in the nrn Plains cool off, and tries to migrate east a bit.

That could actually be a pretty good look for us. I'm not holding my breath yet, but 1967 and 1956 are appearing all over the objective analogs...we'll just have to see how it evolves.

[CoastalWx]

That could actually be a pretty good look for us. I'm not holding my breath yet, but 1967 and 1956 are appearing all over the objective analogs...we'll just have to see how it evolves.

Even though the 500 mb features aren't in the best places, the PAC zonal flow is cutoff and becomes more meridional. You can see this on all 3 models, with the euro even having weak ridging into Greenland. I suppose it should be watched as even next week isn't far off from being an overrunning deal..especially in NNE. I agree, not holding my breath, but an interesting look.

[ORH_wxman]

Even though the 500 mb features aren't in the best places, the PAC zonal flow is cutoff and becomes more meridional. You can see this on all 3 models, with the euro even having weak ridging into Greenland. I suppose it should be watched as even next week isn't far off from being an overrunning deal..especially in NNE. I agree, not holding my breath, but an interesting look.

I was surprised to see how many great years were plastered all over the top of the list...1964 is another one too. All those years had monster periods of snow in latter February and/or March.

[CoastalWx]

I was surprised to see how many great years were plastered all over the top of the list...1964 is another one too. All those years had monster periods of snow in latter February and/or March.

I haven't looked at those analogs in days, until you brought that up. That's pretty cool to see.

[Damage In Tolland]

Funny how DT thinks it's a Richmond special. In yrs like this they never get snow..This might trend north

[CoastalWx]

I like how it's all 50s and 60s..lol, for analog years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny how DT thinks it's a Richmond special. In yrs like this they never get snow..This might trend north

Actually, the futile season that I am chasing featured such a snowfall distribution.

1979-80.....VA got like 40".

[weatherMA]

Funny how DT thinks it's a Richmond special. In yrs like this they never get snow..This might trend north

Actually...someone in the NYC thread mentioned back in a bad snow year like 10 years back there was a significant storm for the southern mid Atlantic in a similar pattern.

[ORH_wxman]

I haven't looked at those analogs in days, until you brought that up. That's pretty cool to see.

Yeah I hadn't looked in a few days either...but I thought it might show some promise because I saw how the ensembles were cutting off the PAC firehose...and sometime if you do that with a -PNA pattern we can get a really active parade of storms with cold in the northern tier...doesn't mean brutal cold or anything, but cold enough for wintry threats.

Some of the analogs weren't even cold but quite snowy/wintry...like late Feb into March 1963 was another...there were a bunch of paste bombs in that period, lol. There was actually an ice storm here on 3/12/63 too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Actually...someone in the NYC thread mentioned back in a bad snow year like 10 years back there was a significant storm for the southern mid Atlantic in a similar pattern.

Jan '00.

Also a relatively good year for the cape, like this year.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I hadn't looked in a few days either...but I thought it might show some promise because I saw how the ensembles were cutting off the PAC firehose...and sometime if you do that with a -PNA pattern we can get a really active parade of storms with cold in the northern tier...doesn't mean brutal cold or anything, but cold enough for wintry threats.

Some of the analogs weren't even cold but quite snowy/wintry...like late Feb into March 1963 was another...there were a bunch of paste bombs in that period, lol. There was actually an ice storm here on 3/12/63 too.

I took a peek at some of those years in BOS. Pretty good..lol. Eh, for now it's just something fun to look at, but the last two days or so haven't been that terrible looking in the 11-15 day up in the northeast.

[ORH_wxman]

I took a peek at some of those years in BOS. Pretty good..lol. Eh, for now it's just something fun to look at, but the last two days or so haven't been that terrible looking in the 11-15 day up in the northeast.

It might be the type of pattern where its cold enough for wintry threats in Feb and then if it sticks around in March, it would provide negative departures in March...a lot of those years were like that...like 1963, 1956 and 1964 weren't cold in February, but many transitioned to cold Marches. Lets hope to stay away from the 1953 and 1985 analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It might be the type of pattern where its cold enough for wintry threats in Feb and then if it sticks around in March, it would provide negative departures in March...a lot of those years were like that...like 1963, 1956 and 1964 weren't cold in February, but many transitioned to cold Marches. Lets hope to stay away from the 1953 and 1985 analogs.

We are absolutely due for a break in March....we were due for a horrific December and boy did we get it. We were due for a horrific winter.....CHECK. I could have the best March in history and it would still be a below normal snowfall season.

So we have some wiggle room to snow in March and still appease the dead rat gods.

[Damage In Tolland]

We are absolutely due for a break in March....we were due for a horrific December and boy did we get it. We were due for a horrific winter.....CHECK. I could have the best March in history and it would still be a below normal snowfall season.

So we have some wiggle room to snow in March and still appease the dead rat gods.

[ORH_wxman]

At least the pattern shows some room for optimism out into the long range...for the first time all winter, it feels like we are not looking at another horrific pattern just around the corner. Its not an amazing setup, but it shows some signs of staying active for the foreseeable future.

The PAC firehose with very little storm activity was the pattern always reappearing on the ensembles in the long range even if we had some shorter windows of PNA/EPO amplification or something to that effect. The lack of storm activity is the feature that seems to want to change over the next couple of weeks.

[CoastalWx]

At least the pattern shows some room for optimism out into the long range...for the first time all winter, it feels like we are not looking at another horrific pattern just around the corner. Its not an amazing setup, but it shows some signs of staying active for the foreseeable future.

The PAC firehose with very little storm activity was the pattern always reappearing on the ensembles in the long range even if we had some shorter windows of PNA/EPO amplification or something to that effect. The lack of storm activity is the feature that seems to want to change over the next couple of weeks.

The lack of moisture is definitely hurting our snowfall right now, especially for the interior. I certainly do not want the futility record, nor do I think we'll get it. And I agree...you don't get that sinking feeling when looking at the ensembles. I'm sure we all have our guard up, but it's not bad looking for our neck of the woods.

[ORH_wxman]

The lack of moisture is definitely hurting our snowfall right now, especially for the interior. I certainly do not want the futility record, nor do I think we'll get it. And I agree...you don't get that sinking feeling when looking at the ensembles. I'm sure we all have our guard up, but it's not bad looking for our neck of the woods.

Yeah as mentioned many times, our horrific snowfall years very frequently coincide with long dry spells in the winter. Mild and dry. Mild and wet we can usually muster up enough cold to get a few good events even if there are rainers mixed in there too.

One thing I noted when looking at the ensembles and the analogs was just how active it was. Storm after storm...you can sort of see them parading through the OH valley on the ensembles (obviously damped out in the long range) and on the analogs, it was a lot of activity...even if some of them were rainers...but they were definitely quite snowy on the whole.

I was looking up one of the years and late Feb 1963 had a 12.1" paste bomb here where the low temp that day was 30F, lol. Blue waterlogged snow.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah as mentioned many times, our horrific snowfall years very frequently coincide with long dry spells in the winter. Mild and dry. Mild and wet we can usually muster up enough cold to get a few good events even if there are rainers mixed in there too.

One thing I noted when looking at the ensembles and the analogs was just how active it was. Storm after storm...you can sort of see them parading through the OH valley on the ensembles (obviously damped out in the long range) and on the analogs, it was a lot of activity...even if some of them were rainers...but they were definitely quite snowy on the whole.

I was looking up one of the years and late Feb 1963 had a 12.1" paste bomb here where the low temp that day was 30F, lol. Blue waterlogged snow.

Tip up to his nape in blue snow cone. I don't mind the interior getting snow one bit, as long as a bone gets tossed towards this area. We'll just see how it goes.I don't want to jinx this.

One last note for now....if we can get some snow into the nrn Plains, which seems possible, it will help refrigerate the airmass as it comes east. We are getting to the point where we need snowpack to help us out here....climo usually has snow across this region.

[Typhoon Tip]

At least the pattern shows some room for optimism out into the long range...for the first time all winter, it feels like we are not looking at another horrific pattern just around the corner. Its not an amazing setup, but it shows some signs of staying active for the foreseeable future.

The PAC firehose with very little storm activity was the pattern always reappearing on the ensembles in the long range even if we had some shorter windows of PNA/EPO amplification or something to that effect. The lack of storm activity is the feature that seems to want to change over the next couple of weeks.

I'm inclined to agree. Part of ...well, a big part of the problem up to this point is the startling abandon of ANYthing really...

We have been event-less for all intents and purposed. It's tough to test the snow part of the question if nothing is occurring.

For the trek ... there's been enough cold ..marginal, at times more, a time not. It just can't realize, though, if there's nothing going on.. Also, that feeds back negatively because lacking cryosphere means the Earth still behaves like a black body object even in the ablate sun angles of mid winter. Sucks is what it does... egh.

Here forward it appears the Pac is lining up a steady diet of moderately intense S/W... any of which could time well with the N -stream to induce phasing, or just be strong enough per their own rite.

I do have a problem with the PNA falling hard, and the EPO having surged back positive. But the NAO is sneakily negative, albeit east based, but there are a few ensemble members trying to retrograde that toward D. Straight. I think a little success there combined with ample cold in the polar band of the Canadian shield, combined with said steady diet cutting underneath could set up a better means than we've seen to date.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is kind of incredible when you just take a moment to reflect on it... A whole winter essentially in positive NAO... Whole way. CPC... CDC of course doesn't concur, but heh - look at the thermometer. We did get some cold at a few fits and starts, much of that seem keyed into the AO and EPO. It's interesting though, that the NAO is so disconnected from the AO this year. They move together 70% of the time...

We scored on 30!

[CoastalWx]

Models still in agreement of a more classic Nina like pattern developing with colder than normal conditions possible across the PAC NW and NRN Plains and increased storm chances across a good part of the US. Hey at this point, all you can ask for are increased storm chances. You could always have a cutter, and than a follow up low with the colder air in place. But the continued analog years shown on the CPC and GEFS analog packages did have some good ones, as we mentioned yesterday.

[ORH_wxman]

Models still in agreement of a more classic Nina like pattern developing with colder than normal conditions possible across the PAC NW and NRN Plains and increased storm chances across a good part of the US. Hey at this point, all you can ask for are increased storm chances. You could always have a cutter, and than a follow up low with the colder air in place. But the continued analog years shown on the CPC and GEFS analog packages did have some good ones, as we mentioned yesterday.

Yeah we will have to deal with some cutters probably in this upcoming pattern...even in a lot of those snowy analog years there were a cutter or two to conted with. Lets just hope the pattern goes stormy as advertised rather than dry and disorganized...the dry pattern is a killer.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah we will have to deal with some cutters probably in this upcoming pattern...even in a lot of those snowy analog years there were a cutter or two to conted with. Lets just hope the pattern goes stormy as advertised rather than dry and disorganized...the dry pattern is a killer.

0.07" for the month at Logan. Temps aren't the killer in this pattern right now.

[CoastalWx]

LOL 0.02 at ORH. That's the killer right there.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL 0.02 at ORH. That's the killer right there.

We haven't had a high precip event since Jan 26-27...so we're working on 3 weeks...and if the weekend system goes out to sea, then we're probably working on 4 weeks without a significant precip event.

Lets get rid of this dry pattern before worrying about anything else...hopefully thismore active pacific with the pac jet getting buckled a bit will be the answer.

[N. OF PIKE]

are PNA ridges known to correlate toward generally dry wx in this area

[CoastalWx]

are PNA ridges known to correlate toward generally dry wx in this area

Pretty sure neither really correlate to dry wx. This is more to do with zonal flow and little in the way of amplitude or good baroclinic energy to intitate low pressure development.

[Damage In Tolland]

Phail

[CoastalWx]

Pretty sure neither really correlate to dry wx. This is more to do with zonal flow and little in the way of amplitude or good baroclinic energy to intitate low pressure development.

Even with a -PNA, we can get moisture laden storms to make a run at us with snow changing to rain. We haven't even had a good inside runner.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wow at the low precip amounts... if this was summer everything would be brown and crispy