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Pattern shifted in this first week of February as anticipated by Will and others...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Could be an interesting period for the interior at least, next weekend. Maybe even coastal areas if the blocking is good enough. Pretty strong signals for something.

Hopefully there's a nice stretch of winter up here. I'm tired of hearing people up here say that this is the best winter ever.
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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

0z ec has a messy SWFE for next Thu night/Fri. With a big trough in the Rockies in the 11-15d I'd be worried about a cutter.

unless the blocking has started to form to our north? I say, lets get a moderate storm mid-late week, a big storm on the weekend and then spring!!! The crud in my yard is about as bad as it gets. I want it covered or melted immediately. Maybe I can borrow Joe's blowtorch?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
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I am liking the vibe at HPC today....

any good analogues?

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

116 PM EST THU FEB 09 2012

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 12 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 16 2012

STRONG JET STREAM WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF A STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT

ANOMALIES OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS PERIOD. THIS FAVORS SPLIT-FLOW

ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DISTINCT NRN AND SRN STREAM...A MEAN

TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER

THE SOUTHEAST. DOWNSTREAM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE THRU D+8 INDICATES AN

EAST BASED NEG NAO WITH STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SOUTHEAST OF

GREEENLAND WITH A TENDENCY TO RETROGRADE THIS SLOWLY WEST. THIS IS

SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING LOWER HTS AND COLDER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF

THE LOWER 48 STATES. SUPPORT IS ALSO HERE WITH A WEAKER PHASE 8

MJO THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY ERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A

DEEP ERN TROF THIS COMING WEEKEND. LONGER TERM MJO FORECASTS OF A

SHIFT INTO PHASE 1 ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF BELOW AVG WRN CONUS HTS

AND NEAR AVG OVER THE ERN THIRD OD CONUS. THIS TREND IS SEEN IN

THE MODEL DAILIES AND THE CPC D+8 HT ANOMALIES.

PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG PACIFIC JET...WHICH ARE VERY

DIFFICULT TO INITIALIZE...COMBINED WITH INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES

WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR HUDSON BAY...SUPPORT AVERAGE

CONFIDENCE AT BEST DAYS 3-5 BEFORE FALLING BELOW AVERAGE FOR DAYS

6/7. DAY-TO-DAY MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 00Z GFS LIES NEAR THE FAST

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH 2 FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING

THE PACIFIC DAYS 3/4...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET OFFERING THE BEST

COMBINATION OF DETAIL WHILE ADDRESSING THE ANTICIPATED SOLUTION

DIFFERENCES. THUS...THE GFS WAS NOT USED IN DEVELOPING THE

PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS. BEGINNING WITH DAY

5/TUE...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/UKMET BECOME APPRECIABLY

LARGER.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BASED ON 00Z ECMWF DAYS 3-4 SUN/MON AND

00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS 5-7

TUES/THURS.

12Z GUIDANCE RUNS OF GFS/UKMET AND CMC CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY LATE

PERIOD WITH CMC TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH TIMING

AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WRN RIDGE AND SWRN TROF AND ALSO WITH LOWER

HTS THAN ITS PRIOR RUN AND THAT OF GFS OVER ERN CONUS. THIS WAS

ACCOUNTED FOR EARLIER USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN.

JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

The pattern as is currently modeled, and has verified, just refuses to move in that direction. Perhaps we should through out all models, and assume seasonal persistence to seemingly violate physics will continue ? Heh, tough call there...

Seriously though, the strong Phase 8 MJO (stronger than the mean had modeled) really has not yet influenced the circulation - or, it may be that it is, but that influence is being damped below anti-correlated events.

If the overnight suite of operational runs have their way, we make it rim to rim with no events the entire winter - over. To make it worse for those hoping to recuperate on winter at all ...the teleconnectors are now en masse going the wrong way.

Fascinating ... awe inspiring no show. Looking good for those that privately want this to happen. This season is the guy that gets struck by lightning 7 times.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

The pattern as is currently modeled, and has verified, just refuses to move in that direction. Perhaps we should through out all models, and assume seasonal persistence to seemingly violate physics will continue ? Heh, tough call there...

Seriously though, the strong Phase 8 MJO (stronger than the mean had modeled) really has not yet influenced the circulation - or, it may be that it is, but that influence is being damped below anti-correlated events.

If the overnight suite of operational runs have their way, we make it rim to rim with no events the entire winter - over. To make it worse for those hoping to recuperate on winter at all ...the teleconnectors are now en masse going the wrong way.

Fascinating ... awe inspiring no show. Looking good for those that privately want this to happen. This season is the guy that gets struck by lightning 7 times.

There are factors that even the best mets just dont' quite understand...will we ever? I hope not, it takes away the mystery. I'm all for the teleconnectors heading in the wrong direction. They didn't work in the right direction so lets send em the other way! Maybe we get an early spring. Hot guys in tank tops tossing frisbees or something.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

There are factors that even the best mets just dont' quite understand...will we ever? I hope not, it takes away the mystery. I'm all for the teleconnectors heading in the wrong direction. They didn't work in the right direction so lets send em the other way! Maybe we get an early spring. Hot guys in tank tops tossing frisbees or something.

Tropical forcing is just one of many things. We just can't escape several factors that are forcing things warm for the CONUS.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

HPC still holding on this morning with some NAO blocking which drives storm track south. If that happens we'll get a storm or 2 no matter what the models are showing today.

OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENS RUNS OF GFS/CMC/ECMWF CONTINUE TO

INDICATE KEEPING A POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SOUTH OF GREENLAND LATE

PERIOD. COMPOSITE ANALOG RUNS OF ALL OF THESE CENTER THIS ANOMALY

FARTHER WEST AS A WEST BASED NEG NAO OVER DAVIS STRAIT OR

LABRADOR. IF THIS OCCURS THE STORM TRACK WOULD BE FORCED FARTHER

SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES THE ONE MID PERIOD AND ANY POSSIBLE EJECTION

OF ENERGY LATE PERIOD OR POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS

IDEA HAS POPPED UP RECENTLY BY SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS

INCLUDING ECMWF/CMC AND JMA AT VARIOUS TIMES. LONGER TERM D+11S

SHIFT THIS ANOMALY EASTWARD TOWARDS EUROPE.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Hopefully its 60-70F and sunny every day and 30s at night and we pull a +18 for the month...lol. Either that or snowy. If its 40 and sunny followed by 50 and rainy like it probably will be that will suck.

The ultimate insult would be this complete lack of winter followed by months of cloudy, cool and damp with a few major spring nor'easters thrown in for good measure. You know, the type that spin in the GOM and dump rain at 38F for two days,

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

The pattern as is currently modeled, and has verified, just refuses to move in that direction. Perhaps we should through out all models, and assume seasonal persistence to seemingly violate physics will continue ? Heh, tough call there...

Seriously though, the strong Phase 8 MJO (stronger than the mean had modeled) really has not yet influenced the circulation - or, it may be that it is, but that influence is being damped below anti-correlated events.

If the overnight suite of operational runs have their way, we make it rim to rim with no events the entire winter - over. To make it worse for those hoping to recuperate on winter at all ...the teleconnectors are now en masse going the wrong way.

Fascinating ... awe inspiring no show. Looking good for those that privately want this to happen. This season is the guy that gets struck by lightning 7 times.

Well there is a 5-7 day lag from each phase before the effects start to be felt in the US. As shown here So in all reality we should just be seeing the results of the 4 or 5th of Feb when it was entering phase 7. Plus, from the chart below we have at least 10-15 days to wait for a -NAO develop as a result of phase 7,8,1.

Don't worry Tip I believe there is still hope. Just have some patience for the MJO to do its work!!

post-3697-0-73649900-1328990266.jpg

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Well there is a 5-7 day lag from each phase before the effects start to be felt in the US. As shown here So in all reality we should just be seeing the results of the 4 or 5th of Feb when it was entering phase 7. Plus, from the chart below we have at least 10-15 days to wait for a -NAO develop as a result of phase 7,8,1.

Don't worry Tip I believe there is still hope. Just have some patience for the MJO to do its work!!

post-3697-0-73649900-1328990266.jpg

I was thinking that it is highly possible/likely that the west based -NAO showing up for later next week actually may last through the following week before marching east towards Europe. This would give us our winter, staring mid-late week for about 10-14 days. I could live with that if I can get a couple weeks of snowshoeing conditions.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Storm threat Friday-Saturday next week might have legs.

As I said a number of times in the last week, ... with no response because everyone was so tied into this hopeless storm today... The next two weeks should be eventful. Tons of energy pouring onshore in the west. Also, the pattern is definitely in a point of transition ... to what end I'm not sure, but the point is that the incipient placement of long wave becomes less dominant, allowing shorter wave disturbances to maintain amplitude and favorable spacing across the CONUS. And they may be spaced to provide *transient* troughs around 50/50 supporting at least some threat of wintry appeal in New England.

Something to watch anyway

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Storm threat Friday-Saturday next week might have legs.

As I said a number of times in the last week, ... with no response because everyone was so tied into this hopeless storm today... The next two weeks should be eventful. Tons of energy pouring onshore in the west. Also, the pattern is definitely in a point of transition ... to what end I'm not sure, but the point is that the incipient placement of long wave becomes less dominant, allowing shorter wave disturbances to maintain amplitude and favorable spacing across the CONUS. And they may be spaced to provide *transient* troughs around 50/50 supporting at least some threat of wintry appeal in New England.

Something to watch anyway

You didn't say anything except for spring and hacky sack.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Storm threat Friday-Saturday next week might have legs.

As I said a number of times in the last week, ... with no response because everyone was so tied into this hopeless storm today... The next two weeks should be eventful. Tons of energy pouring onshore in the west. Also, the pattern is definitely in a point of transition ... to what end I'm not sure, but the point is that the incipient placement of long wave becomes less dominant, allowing shorter wave disturbances to maintain amplitude and favorable spacing across the CONUS. And they may be spaced to provide *transient* troughs around 50/50 supporting at least some threat of wintry appeal in New England.

Something to watch anyway

agree we should definitely have at least another week worth of short waves coming through after we get out of phase 8 and either go through to 1or dive into the cod. if we make it into phase 1 I we have a few more days beyond that. Either way I think we have at least two weeks of opportunities ahead too!

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Storm threat Friday-Saturday next week might have legs.

As I said a number of times in the last week, ... with no response because everyone was so tied into this hopeless storm today... The next two weeks should be eventful. Tons of energy pouring onshore in the west. Also, the pattern is definitely in a point of transition ... to what end I'm not sure, but the point is that the incipient placement of long wave becomes less dominant, allowing shorter wave disturbances to maintain amplitude and favorable spacing across the CONUS. And they may be spaced to provide *transient* troughs around 50/50 supporting at least some threat of wintry appeal in New England.

Something to watch anyway

I don't think it's going to amount to very much of anything at all, at least for most of sne.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I don't know what thread to post in any more as there may in fact be about 4 S/W over the next 10 days to account for ... but, sufficed it is to say, this 18z GFS run just needs the southern stream the Euro has, and this would phase into a monster - not the Friday one... the one after - jesus..

As is, it's a quicker flatter N stream pretty much only -

NCEP discussed that there is uncertainty as to how much phase will happen. The 12z UKMET was close to a huge hit up this way, and is a moderate one anyway for the MA. I think the possibility is there for a significant impactor ... I guess that'd have to be ...144 plus Sunday I guess.

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