Pattern shifted in this first week of February as anticipated by Will and others...

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles are actually trying to get the NAO negative beyond day 8 or so. Not by much, but goes back to yesterday, saying that any little bit will help this area.

[CoastalWx]

There is a pretty big storm signal around the 18th. The NAO does try to go negative during this time. Right now, it could be anything from heavy rain to snow, but pretty good signal on all models fwiw.

[Baroclinic Zone]

There is a pretty big storm signal around the 18th. The NAO does try to go negative during this time. Right now, it could be anything from heavy rain to snow, but pretty good signal on all models fwiw.

This will work for me. I'm heading N for vacation.

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS trended west as well…

What is interesting about both the GFS and NAM runs is that they both are also suffering some convective feedback issues. Both are showing a seaward low that is …tugging the whole low level vortex toward it. That seaward circulation center is bull’s eyed on a huge convective QPF mass.

Sometimes those are legit though – can’t discount them altogether. Other times, they are not… if it is the latter, that NAM solution could be even more impacting than it has –

Huh. Interesting. Anyway... this is all that Miller A coming back now inside the middle range - when have we seen THAT before. There also a fascinating stream interaction going on with this thing, in that the southern stream mid level dynamics induce the low in the SE, then as it rides up it gets captured by the northern stream. This thing goes bonkers as it leaves the coastal waters of New England, too.

[CoastalWx]

Interesting ensemble runs regarding a couple of storms later next week.

[MaineJayhawk]

Interesting ensemble runs regarding a couple of storms later next week.

Give us enough swings of the bat and sooner or later we'll make solid contact.

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting ensemble runs regarding a couple of storms later next week.

Yeah I've been more interested in that time frame all along.... I don't like "too much gradient" regimes. I like the flow to have moderate gradients, such that S/W mechanics can actually operate and cause jet responses. ...basic necessity for anything to happen. yadda yadda.

With the SPV weakening and lifting up west of the D. Straights that offers relaxation at our latitudes; return flow(s) can take place.

This thing on Saturday late is unrelated to that, right...

[mahk_webstah]

Give us enough swings of the bat and sooner or later we'll make solid contact.

Will we Eric? will we? I've gotten torn muscles in both sides from swinging so much this year. Unfortunately I bat from both sides so the opportunities to swing hard are double. Regression to the mean though is the only thing on our side. My feeling is that winter would come back suddenly in a less than 72 hour window and we'd be rockin....we'll see.

[Typhoon Tip]

That broad negatively tilted trough on the D7 Euro gets interesting in a real hurry if that sharpens up at all on future runs..

[CoastalWx]

Canadian ensembles are also interesting next week.

[mahk_webstah]

I am liking the vibe at HPC today....

any good analogues?

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

116 PM EST THU FEB 09 2012

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 12 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 16 2012

STRONG JET STREAM WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF A STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT

ANOMALIES OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS PERIOD. THIS FAVORS SPLIT-FLOW

ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DISTINCT NRN AND SRN STREAM...A MEAN

TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER

THE SOUTHEAST. DOWNSTREAM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE THRU D+8 INDICATES AN

EAST BASED NEG NAO WITH STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SOUTHEAST OF

GREEENLAND WITH A TENDENCY TO RETROGRADE THIS SLOWLY WEST. THIS IS

SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING LOWER HTS AND COLDER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF

THE LOWER 48 STATES. SUPPORT IS ALSO HERE WITH A WEAKER PHASE 8

MJO THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY ERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A

DEEP ERN TROF THIS COMING WEEKEND. LONGER TERM MJO FORECASTS OF A

SHIFT INTO PHASE 1 ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF BELOW AVG WRN CONUS HTS

AND NEAR AVG OVER THE ERN THIRD OD CONUS. THIS TREND IS SEEN IN

THE MODEL DAILIES AND THE CPC D+8 HT ANOMALIES.

PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG PACIFIC JET...WHICH ARE VERY

DIFFICULT TO INITIALIZE...COMBINED WITH INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES

WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR HUDSON BAY...SUPPORT AVERAGE

CONFIDENCE AT BEST DAYS 3-5 BEFORE FALLING BELOW AVERAGE FOR DAYS

6/7. DAY-TO-DAY MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 00Z GFS LIES NEAR THE FAST

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH 2 FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING

THE PACIFIC DAYS 3/4...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET OFFERING THE BEST

COMBINATION OF DETAIL WHILE ADDRESSING THE ANTICIPATED SOLUTION

DIFFERENCES. THUS...THE GFS WAS NOT USED IN DEVELOPING THE

PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS. BEGINNING WITH DAY

5/TUE...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/UKMET BECOME APPRECIABLY

LARGER.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BASED ON 00Z ECMWF DAYS 3-4 SUN/MON AND

00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS 5-7

TUES/THURS.

12Z GUIDANCE RUNS OF GFS/UKMET AND CMC CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY LATE

PERIOD WITH CMC TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH TIMING

AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WRN RIDGE AND SWRN TROF AND ALSO WITH LOWER

HTS THAN ITS PRIOR RUN AND THAT OF GFS OVER ERN CONUS. THIS WAS

ACCOUNTED FOR EARLIER USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN.

JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

[CoastalWx]

yeah mark we touched on that yesterday. That blocking is helping with the model solutions right now. They are trying to sneak lows underneath SNE instead of west.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ding dong the torch is dead on the Euro today. Euro weeklies flipping around was for real..All of us FTW

[mahk_webstah]

yeah mark we touched on that yesterday. That blocking is helping with the model solutions right now. They are trying to sneak lows underneath SNE instead of west.

yup! I just hadn't seen HPC getting so on board with that just yet. We are inching to a wintery stretch. Who knows? maybe you'll be happy you are coming up here this weekend.

[CoastalWx]

Low just se of the BM on Wednesday. That blocking up north helping out. Sure looked different 1 week ago.

[CoastalWx]

That blocking trying to do its magic with another coastal type deal on Friday the 17th. Could be rain or snow though.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe another one on the 20th? That blocking is really helping out. It's not strong so if it weakens, it could send storms west. Overall it's pretty nice looking.

[KEITH L.I]

Maybe another one on the 20th? That blocking is really helping out. It's not strong so if it weakens, it could send storms west. Overall it's pretty nice looking.

very Feb 1972..that analog is working out well now..one of my main ones was 71-72

[mahk_webstah]

starting to sound like a parade of storms...with just a little help we would score up here. with just a little more help we all score.

[QVectorman]

starting to sound like a parade of storms...with just a little help we would score up here. with just a little more help we all score.

Thank the m j o for these pulses! And we should have at least another 3 weeks of these!

[Damage In Tolland]

Thank the m j o for these pulses!

I said that yesterday, but was told I was wrong

[Mr Torchey]

Wonder how the weeklies were

[QVectorman]

I said that yesterday, but was told I was wrong

how are you wrong? I don't think these pulse just magically appeared. I mean what else has changed? Lol

[dendrite]

I said that yesterday, but was told I was wrong

Weren't you arguing something else wrt the MJO? I thought you were explaining the downstream NAO blocking with it....not the upstream parade of storms...

[QVectorman]

Weren't you arguing something else wrt the MJO? I thought you were explaining the downstream NAO blocking with it....not the upstream parade of storms...

I don't know what exactly he was arguing but there are several papers that have data that support that phase 7,8,1 induces a -N A O about 60-80% of time...percentage depends on the phase....with a lag time of 10-15 days

[Ginx snewx]

I don't know what exactly he was arguing but there are several papers that have data that support that phase 7,8,1 induces a -N A O about 60-80% of time...percentage depends on the phase....with a lag time of 10-15 days

Do not worry about it, he does not know what he was arguing about either, he thought MJO was in phase 9.

[dendrite]

I don't know what exactly he was arguing but there are several papers that have data that support that phase 7,8,1 induces a -N A O about 60-80% of time...percentage depends on the phase....with a lag time of 10-15 days

And it makes sense to me as we continually pump heights up into that region with these storm systems. That's not my cup of tea though and I wasn't the one arguing with him...I was just trying to clarify what his argument was.

[QVectorman]

Do not worry about it, he does not know what he was arguing about either, he thought MJO was in phase 9.

Lmao...although I swear I have read a few papers that refer to phase 9. But maybe its my imagination

[weathafella]

Weeklies anyone?

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies were actually not that bad and had some blocking week 2 into week 3. Week 4 was kind of ugly.