Pattern shifted in this first week of February as anticipated by Will and others...

[Typhoon Tip]

Perhaps, but I'm liking the MJO right now, and I suspect ...well, think it plausible rather, that the respective operational runs and to a some degree more than less their ensemble members might not yet be detecting forcing on the circulation system in the Pac --> parlaying into super-positional (constructive wave interference) on the background, on-going +PNA.

Simple terms, with the PNA already in a positive mode (albeit modestly), the emergence of the powerful Phase 7 MJO fits better with that than when the PNA averages positive while the Phase is over in that fun-kill Phase 4 region. These kind of uber strength western Pacific waves usually send a shock wave down stream that gets the roulette wheel spinning on R-wave spacing; as we know, statistically that usually results in a western ridge/eastern trough scenario. Now, put that on-top of an on-going +PNA, and you should wind up with static positive anomaly in amplitude (N S flow) over N/A.

This is very interesting MJO wave behavior. This is completely uncharted waters as far as this season to date, with wave strength as of last night near the upper bounds of the Wheeler diagram and squarely in Phase 7.

http://cawcr.gov.au/...Last90days.html

More importantly (for me) is that it arrive there so fast - just in the last 4 or 5 days .... - it is entirely reasonable to assume it's effects on the Pac and eventual Pac relay into N/A are not registering just yet.

Btw, the GEFs nailed this. If you look at the forecast curve provided by NCEPs weekly MJO address from last Tuesday and super-impose it over what has taken place over the last 6 days they are almost dead nuts on top of one another. http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf ...then scroll to page 16.

The short and skinny? Hold onto your hats because the wind my yet be about to blow!

[Damage In Tolland]

This reminds me of a fable named"The Boy Who Cried Wolf"

[CoastalWx]

I don't think the GEFS nailed it per se. It did trend to the euro in terms of trying to get the PNA negative. I think we'll see a mild period around mid month, maybe very mild. It's afterwards, where the questions remain. MJO forecasts try to go into phase 8 and even weakly into phase 1 if euro is right. The euro tries to shove a ridge into AK, but it's not a high amplitude ridge like we saw in this current regime. In turn, it has a strong -PNA and gradient looking pattern, but also puts us in a zone where it could not go well for us, but 50 miles means a lot in these patterns. The GEFS have a stout trough across the east. The euro overall may have been too -PNA happy, but they are going to nail this mild period coming up. I don't have confidence in the pattern coming up, because again the AO and NAO will be +. Easily opens the door up for warmer storms.

[Typhoon Tip]

This reminds me of a fable named"The Boy Who Cried Wolf"

No sir - if you look at the links I provided, you might see that that this is uncharted waters here with this wave's strength - certainly how it effects on the circulation.

But I explained that. Nice reading as usual there Mr Clean LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't think the GEFS nailed it per se. It did trend to the euro in terms of trying to get the PNA negative. I think we'll see a mild period around mid month, maybe very mild. It's afterwards, where the questions remain. MJO forecasts try to go into phase 8 and even weakly into phase 1 if euro is right. The euro tries to shove a ridge into AK, but it's not a high amplitude ridge like we saw in this current regime. In turn, it has a strong -PNA and gradient looking pattern, but also puts us in a zone where it could not go well for us, but 50 miles means a lot in these patterns. The GEFS have a stout trough across the east. The euro overall may have been too -PNA happy, but they are going to nail this mild period coming up. I don't have confidence in the pattern coming up, because again the AO and NAO will be +. Easily opens the door up for warmer storms.

Not sure why you are referencing the PNA when the discussion I made is wrt the MJO, dude.

Did you even look at the links I provided and compare; the wave strength and position from the GEFs put out by NCEP's weekly PDF address last Tuesday absolutely does closely fit what's verified with the MJO over that time.

[Typhoon Tip]

[Typhoon Tip]

More over and again, given that the emergent strength and position is so quick, there is question as to "weather" (haha) it is just yet having an exertion on the flow.

[CoastalWx]

Not sure why you are referencing the PNA when the discussion I made is wrt the MJO, dude.

Did you even look at the links I provided and compare; the wave strength and position from the GEFs put out by NCEP's weekly PDF address last Tuesday absolutely does closely fit what's verified with the MJO over that time.

True, but the bias corrected GEFS are bring it back towards the COD pretty quick. Compare what the prog was in that link you provided, to this.

[snowNH]

This sucks.. I want warmth not cold.. its almost spring time baby ..

The fact that the pattern has changed but the 7day forecast is the same does nothing for me

[Typhoon Tip]

True, but the bias corrected GEFS are bring it back towards the COD pretty quick. Compare what the prog was in that link you provided, to this.

Not sure what the significance is ...or should be, in using a "bias corrected" outlook... In this case, the verification compared to the prog is clad - it is what it is. Very good to great!

Now, sure, going forward, the wave strength and position might descend, but that doesn't by any means eclipse the significance in my mind of having it be currently so uber strong at this time, AND, that there is a solid 2 weeks of it's presence even in that product you have, in the Phase 7's relay into Phase 8.

But... hold on second folks. Let's not get carried away with disecting the wave to find out why it will mean negative stuff. The key point of discussion her really is "how will this have an effect on the circulation" - clearly the correlation has not been met just yet. Not even close.

I know I know - it next to impossible to see good things coming base upon the road we've come. But we also haven't seen this degree of potential forcing yet this year. That's a powerful influencer there.

I tell you what...if it does fail to register on the circulation at all, this truly has become utterly bizarre.

[CoastalWx]

Not sure what the significance is ...or should be, in using a "bias corrected" outlook... In this case, the verification compared to the prog is clad - it is what it is. Very good to great!

Now, sure, going forward, the wave strength and position might descend, but that doesn't by any means eclipse the significance in my mind of having it be currently so uber strong at this time, AND, that there is a solid 2 weeks of it's presence even in that product you have, in the Phase 7's relay into Phase 8.

But... hold on second folks. Let's not get carried away with disecting the wave to find out why it will mean negative stuff. The key point of discussion her really is "how will this have an effect on the circulation" - clearly the correlation has not been met just yet. Not even close.

I know I know - it next to impossible to see good things coming base upon the road we've come. But we also haven't seen this degree of potential forcing yet this year. That's a powerful influencer there.

I tell you what...if it does fail to register on the circulation at all, this truly has become utterly bizarre.

I'm not disagreeing per se with any change, I'm just a little skeptical right now, because we may be going to another big +AO regime and relying on ridging into AK like we did in January. That didn't work out well. Now if the GEFS is closer ti reality, then it could be different. Hopefully we have a compromise, but I'm not really giddy about the second half of Jan right now.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not disagreeing per se with any change, I'm just a little skeptical right now, because we may be going to another big +AO regime and relying on ridging into AK like we did in January. That didn't work out well. Now if the GEFS is closer ti reality, then it could be different. Hopefully we have a compromise, but I'm not really giddy about the second half of Jan right now.

Not sure what the Euro cluster does with the AO but the GEFs mean over at CPC isn't really flagging that characteristic with the AO. It's showing a relaxation of the -3SD levels currently going on...sure, but a lot of members are still 0 or less SD out to week 2 - enough so that the mean is still slightly negative.

That doesn't really carry the appeal that the previous nagging 2 month long assault had.

I'm thinking this: The current powerhouse SPV trundling about over eastern Canada, and it's subtending of a trough axis roughly D5-7 will all lift out as the PNA "tends" but fails to succeed altogether, in leveling the geopotential medium from the west coast to the east coast. (still not impossible to get that Miller A back on the charts D6 but don't hold breath...).

Then we see a ridge resurge there, but it will be better for cyclogensis down stream because with a weakened goepotential medium the flow is less compressed, so S/W will find a favorable arena for "diving".

[CoastalWx]

Not sure what the Euro cluster does with the AO but the GEFs mean over at CPC isn't really flagging that characteristic with the AO. It's showing a relaxation of the -3SD levels currently going on...sure, but a lot of members are still 0 or less SD out to week 2 - enough so that the mean is still slightly negative.

That doesn't really carry the appeal that the previous nagging 2 month long assault had.

I'm thinking this: The current powerhouse SPV trundling about over eastern Canada, and it's subtending of a trough axis roughly D5-7 will all lift out as the PNA "tends" but fails to succeed altogether, in leveling the geopotential medium from the west coast to the east coast. (still not impossible to get that Miller A back on the charts D6 but don't hold breath...).

Then we see a ridge resurge there, but it will be better for cyclogensis down stream because with a weakened goepotential medium the flow is less compressed, so S/W will find a favorable arena for "diving".

I don't care what the text indices say, I'm just looking at the H5 pattern. However, it's going to be all about the ridge amplitude, and I'm not giddy on it being high enough, with the vortex near the N-Pole. Not saying it could not help us out, but we've seen this before.

[CoastalWx]

I will say the euro may be once again too -PNA happy. If that is the case, it would bode a lot better for us. Overall I think the IO convection for now seems to be calming down a bit.

[CoastalWx]

Funny how different the ensembles are in the 16th and 17th.

[CoastalWx]

Good news is that per satellite, and now with mets agreeing, IO convection seems to be weakening for the time being.

[N. OF PIKE]

HM states

This MJO wave propagating more like the GFS ensembles became apparent a day or so ago when the IO convection dissapated and the h2 structure was clearly over the eastern most wave. This is legit folks!

What do you get when you get a MJO wave through phase 8-1-2 and a -AO in a La Nina February? I am sure Don has the composites already.

[CoastalWx]

HM states

This MJO wave propagating more like the GFS ensembles became apparent a day or so ago when the IO convection dissapated and the h2 structure was clearly over the eastern most wave. This is legit folks!

What do you get when you get a MJO wave through phase 8-1-2 and a -AO in a La Nina February? I am sure Don has the composites already.

Question is how aggressive is the DL convection. Satellite data shows convection weakening since Saturday in IO.

[CoastalWx]

The GEFS continue to be more aggressive with ridging in the PNA region and trough in the east. Hopefully it can be closer to reality, if indeed it is doing well with handling convection. Interesting.

[Damage In Tolland]

The GEFS continue to be more aggressive with ridging in the PNA region and trough in the east. Hopefully it can be closer to reality, if indeed it is doing well with handling convection. Interesting.

If we can just somehow avoid that warmup the 15-20th I'd be happy

[CoastalWx]

If we can just somehow avoid that warmup the 15-20th I'd be happy

Well I think it will happen. Question is will it be 1 day or multiple days. Pretty good model battle in the 11-15 day, but I still think the GEFS may be to cold.

[OSUmetstud]

I see that the GFS ensemble mean is bringing the AO back positive. Does that make sense? The strat warming did break down the vortex...it's been hanging out in the -2 to -3 range. Why would it suddenly come back in a month where blocking is more prevalant anyway?

[CoastalWx]

I see that the GFS ensemble mean is bringing the AO back positive. Does that make sense? The strat warming did break down the vortex...it's been hanging out in the -2 to -3 range. Why would it suddenly come back in a month where blocking is more prevalant anyway?

The euro brings it back positive too. It basically becomes a two piece vortex. One piece near Kamchatka and the other closer to the North Pole.

[OSUmetstud]

The euro brings it back positive too. It basically becomes a two piece vortex. One piece near Kamchatka and the other closer to the North Pole.

does that make sense though is more the question i'm asking. Look at how the modeling has switched...the gfs mean has been too bullish, even in the 7 day forecast, in bringing the AO closer to neutral. We saw the opposite earlier in the season when the modeled wanted to bring the very positive AO wrongly closer to neutral or even slightly negative in the extended range. My bet is that it stays negative.

[CoastalWx]

It might also depend on tropical forcing too. My guess is that it does go towards +, but there are some questions on magnitude and timing. Also, if you have enough ridging into AK, you can have a +AO, but also some cross polar flow too. That also needs to be looked at.

[QVectorman]

True, but the bias corrected GEFS are bring it back towards the COD pretty quick. Compare what the prog was in that link you provided, to this.

I don't understand ppls love affair with the Euro. It's blatantly obvious the GFS is doing better than the Euro this month just by eye balling it. It even shows in the anomaly correlation scores. I am not against the Euro and it does have a great track record. It just obvious right now for the past 30-45 days that this global pattern isn't its cup of tea.

I will also go on to say that I believe based on the GWO and AAM we should make through phase 1 and a weak 2 or COD 2 and then I believe we will cut over into phase 4/5 via the COD and reemerge into a 4 boarderline 5 heading into and continuing to 6 in a 1.5 to 2 SD amplitude.

[CoastalWx]

I don't understand ppls love affair with the Euro. It's blatantly obvious the GFS is doing better than the Euro this month just by eye balling it. It even shows in the anomaly correlation scores. I am not against the Euro and it does have a great track record. It just obvious right now for the past 30-45 days that this global pattern isn't its cup of tea.

I will also go on to say that I believe based on the GWO and AAM we should make through phase 1 and a weak 2 or COD 2 and then I believe we will cut over into phase 4/5 via the COD and reemerge into a 4 boarderline 5 heading into and continuing to 6 in a 1.5 to 2 SD amplitude.

It's usually a dam good model. I don't really care what the op runs show,in the d4-6 timeframe, that's why we have ensembles. I usually care about the ensembles, and that's where the euro usually schools the GFS.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a pretty cold outbreak coming up late this weekend and early next week. After that, seems like a warm up come about. After that it cools off, but thicknesses are like 534 or so. Still kind of mild and with a front nearby, it opens the door for inside runners too. But again, it all depends on the PNA out west. Also, the MJO would seemingly argue for something perhaps a little less -PNA like, at least until later in phase 1 or so. My guess is the 11-15 day is above based on what I see. Doesn't mean it can't snow, just may be above normal.

[CoastalWx]

Also Nick, I'm not a big fan of the text or graph forecasts, I'm just looking at the H5 pattern. There is some ridging into the AO domain, but in general..lower heights from the N pole into Kamchatka aren't the best looking -AO out there, and look more +AO to me.

[nzucker]

0z ECM holding onto the idea of a large warm-up at Day 9/10.