Gauging GLOVers on how the rest of the winter plays out

[AppsRunner]

He posted that before i even voted and I don't understand the ending to your post much.

I'll be stunned if we don't get another period like in janauary where things are decent and we avg below normal temps and above average snow for a couple weeks. Naso so positive about the widespread the wealth snow's though. Could be congrats La Crosse but i'm leaning more towards the eastern lakes and even OV.

Yeah, I wasn't talking about you. Oh well, nbd. Lets go complain about the winter some more.

[BowMeHunter]

That's my point, there has to be another cold and snowy period for Toronto to surpass Milwaukee's total.

Your point still sucks like Marquette. like me saying I favor the eastern (Like MI) lakes/OV has anything to do with the bet or will make mother nature favor that area over another. Hopefully things change and we're sitting in a better spot come the last week or so of feb and its a spread the wealth deal if we actually are lucky enough to have a last hurrah to winter. Looks awfully boring here until then.

[Harry]

Growing confidence that it goes colder and snowier all the way into April.

Once it does flip it could be quite a while before we see any extended periods of above normal temps again.

Euro as usual ( this winter ) is sh!tting the bed. The clue that it is can be seen via the MJO calls which it is failing miserably with. Euro has been trying to keep it in phase 6 or well now backing it into 6 ( as it has reached 7 ) thus delaying the pattern change.

Most models now take it to phase 8-1 and a couple take it to phase 2.

[Baum]

Growing confidence that it goes colder and snowier all the way into April.

Once it does flip it could be quite a while before we see any extended periods of above normal temps again.

Euro as usual ( this winter ) is sh!tting the bed. The clue that it is can be seen via the MJO calls which it is failing miserably with. Euro has been trying to keep it in phase 6 or well now backing it into 6 ( as it has reached 7 ) thus delaying the pattern change.

Most models now take it to phase 8-1 and a couple take it to phase 2.

sounds like you and JB are on the same page. Common sense would dictate a flip when it spells lots of cold rain.

[Harry]

sounds like you and JB are on the same page. Common sense would dictate a flip when it spells lots of cold rain.

Unsure of what he is looking at but yeah nearly everything i have looked at ( I looked at alot this time unlike earlier in the season when i sorta slacked off ) suggests that outcome i mentioned. Even statistically speaking the odd's are stacked high against the pattern reverting back to what we have had considering how long we had it. I say reverting back because ala the pattern HAS already begun to change. Not sure why some keep talking as if nothing has happened?

[Powerball]

Unsure of what he is looking at but yeah nearly everything i have looked at ( I looked at alot this time unlike earlier in the season when i sorta slacked off ) suggests that outcome i mentioned. Even statistically speaking the odd's are stacked high against the pattern reverting back to what we have had considering how long we had it. I say reverting back because ala the pattern HAS already begun to change. Not sure why some keep talking as if nothing has happened?

It's not a question of whether or not the pattern has already begun to change, but whether or not the pattern change will be complete in time to benefit us winter weather-wise. Time is ticking either way.

The answer to that at this point seems to be no.

That's exactly why 9 people simply voted that they don't care or are uncertain.

[cyclone77]

I picked uncertain since I have no idea what to expect beyond about 10 days. I don't even speculate, as I never really learned how to predict the changes in NAOs etc. Whatever happens, happens. At this point nothing would really surprise me.

[BowMeHunter]

or some are simply and exactly uncertain.

[Hoosier]

Growing confidence that it goes colder and snowier all the way into April.

Once it does flip it could be quite a while before we see any extended periods of above normal temps again.

Euro as usual ( this winter ) is sh!tting the bed. The clue that it is can be seen via the MJO calls which it is failing miserably with. Euro has been trying to keep it in phase 6 or well now backing it into 6 ( as it has reached 7 ) thus delaying the pattern change.

Most models now take it to phase 8-1 and a couple take it to phase 2.

It does seem like we're getting the MJO on our side for the first time since God knows when.  Just don't know for how long.  Decent period is an ambiguous term but my definition is 2-3 weeks minimum.

[michsnowfreak]

It does seem like we're getting the MJO on our side for the first time since God knows when. Just don't know for how long. Decent period is an ambiguous term but my definition is 2-3 weeks minimum.

Thats true...decent period, as you said, is all relative. A cold, snowy pattern in March is different than a cold, snowy pattern in January. HOWEVER....what I can say, with the above factors that Harry pointed out (esp the MJO, also the solar stuff, the pattern IS changing, etc)...PLUS my knowledge of climo and historically how March and to a lesser extent April play out following mild winters, I have very high confidence that we have our best period of winter yet to come this season, and certainly our largest snowstorm (at least here).

Outside of the near-record snow in March 2008, Marches have been rather unimpressive lately, and this coming during a stretch of otherwise very impressive snow seasons, certainly lulls people into this complacency about March (oh, March snows melt in a day, wont stick to pavement, etc), that is certainly untrue when you look at the grand scheme of things (at least north of I80). Many a mild winter sees its wintriest month be March, and if there are two things karma says we are due for in Detroit, its a non-snowy winter and a snowy March.

[Geos]

It does seem like we're getting the MJO on our side for the first time since God knows when. Just don't know for how long. Decent period is an ambiguous term but my definition is 2-3 weeks minimum.

That's the time length I was thinking too. Even it's normal or slightly below normal with some snow - that would be quite wintry for this winter's standards!

March is kind of toss up with snowfall. Last 14 years March has produced on average 8" here. 22.3" in 2008 being the top. The relatively dry and snowless winter of 01-02, 02-03 - produced 10.5" and 11.6" of snowfall. March was the 2nd snowiest month after January in the winter of 01-02, and it was the snowiest month the next winter.

[Harry]

Thats true...decent period, as you said, is all relative. A cold, snowy pattern in March is different than a cold, snowy pattern in January. HOWEVER....what I can say, with the above factors that Harry pointed out (esp the MJO, also the solar stuff, the pattern IS changing, etc)...PLUS my knowledge of climo and historically how March and to a lesser extent April play out following mild winters, I have very high confidence that we have our best period of winter yet to come this season, and certainly our largest snowstorm (at least here).

Outside of the near-record snow in March 2008, Marches have been rather unimpressive lately, and this coming during a stretch of otherwise very impressive snow seasons, certainly lulls people into this complacency about March (oh, March snows melt in a day, wont stick to pavement, etc), that is certainly untrue when you look at the grand scheme of things (at least north of I80). Many a mild winter sees its wintriest month be March, and if there are two things karma says we are due for in Detroit, its a non-snowy winter and a snowy March.

Been a while since March has been the snowiest of the winter months here. Have had quite a few believe it or not but yeah it has been a while since that has happened. Oddly enough there has been more snow in April here vs March the past few winters. 69-70 was crazy with April being the snowiest of the whole winter. lol That winter had a real crappy Dec ( 7.9" )and Jan ( 10.1" ) like this year and not so great Feb as well with 10.8" but ala March and April were snowier. Nov just edged out Dec-Jan-Feb as well.

[IWXwx]

Thats true...decent period, as you said, is all relative. A cold, snowy pattern in March is different than a cold, snowy pattern in January. HOWEVER....what I can say, with the above factors that Harry pointed out (esp the MJO, also the solar stuff, the pattern IS changing, etc)...PLUS my knowledge of climo and historically how March and to a lesser extent April play out following mild winters, I have very high confidence that we have our best period of winter yet to come this season, and certainly our largest snowstorm (at least here).

Outside of the near-record snow in March 2008, Marches have been rather unimpressive lately, and this coming during a stretch of otherwise very impressive snow seasons, certainly lulls people into this complacency about March (oh, March snows melt in a day, wont stick to pavement, etc), that is certainly untrue when you look at the grand scheme of things (at least north of I80). Many a mild winter sees its wintriest month be March, and if there are two things karma says we are due for in Detroit, its a non-snowy winter and a snowy March.

The problem with this winter is that January' s weather emulated a typical March pattern around here. Heavy, wet snow that was gone within 24-48 hrs. You may be correct about north of I-80, but down here a cold snowy pattern in March would be more of the same. My hope is that we can get something rolling THIS month. The upcoming week isn't looking too promising and that's as far ahead as I will look. But that still leaves 3 more weeks or so for the cold weather to stick around a get a couple of systems to build a snowpack.

[AppsRunner]

It does seem like we're getting the MJO on our side for the first time since God knows when. Just don't know for how long. Decent period is an ambiguous term but my definition is 2-3 weeks minimum.

There was a very weak, very quick moving MJO wave going through 8-3 in Mid-November, but since Dec. 1 it hasn't been outisde of phases 4-6 the entire winter.

[Hoosier]

There was a very weak, very quick moving MJO wave going through 8-3 in Mid-November, but since Dec. 1 it hasn't been outisde of phases 4-6 the entire winter.

Euro on board with the MJO getting into phases 8/1/2.

[Chicago Storm]

Euro on board with the MJO getting into phases 8/1/2.

finally it was updated.

it was showing old progs for several days now.

[Harry]

Euro on board with the MJO getting into phases 8/1/2.

Yep and like that BOOM the torchy stuff is outta here! Models may still struggle a bit too so don't be surprised to see more flip flopping. They *should* though trend towards colder overall. How cold remains to be seen.

I wont lie though and will say that the torch we have had THIS go around was atleast a decent one and thus nice with alot of sun till today anyways but wont complain over one real sh!tty day. Not the crappy 35-40 raw, fog, cloud and drizzle filled crap that seems to be more common with our torches in these parts like today.

[wishforsnow]

I went with no lengthy cold which has been the case so far this winter. Winter is definately not over for the UP of Michigan anyways, but there will be continue to cylce between a few days of colder air and then a warm up.

[SpartyOn]

Euro on board with the MJO getting into phases 8/1/2.

The million dollar question. Will it last 4 days or 10? Seems to be the way of this Winter.

[on_wx]

Stopped caring a long while back

[BowMeHunter]

We might have come to peace with this crappy winter awhile back, but any snow weenie would be fibbing if they stated they didn't care anymore. I don't care if it ever snows again this winter because the damage is already done but I'm still looking at models and reading the board just about on pace if it was a good winter.

[michsnowfreak]

We might have come to peace with this crappy winter awhile back, but any snow weenie would be fibbing if they stated they didn't care anymore. I don't care if it ever snows again this winter because the damage is already done but I'm still looking at models and reading the board just about on pace if it was a good winter.

Totally agree.

[Chicago Storm]

I decided to look up stats for top 10 warm winters through the end of Jan...To see how the end of winter and the following spring played out. Obviously there are many other things that go into consideration, but there is a nice spread using this method alone.

[BowMeHunter]

skilling would be proud.

[snowstormcanuck]

I decided to look up stats for top 10 warm winters through the end of Jan...To see how the end of winter and the following spring played out. Obviously there a many other things that go into consideration, but there is a nice spread using this method alone.

Nice layout. Love the paucity of Nina's in that list. Probably plowing unchartered waters with regards to warmth in -ENSO.