Gauging GLOVers on how the rest of the winter plays out

[snowstormcanuck]

I tried to restrict the wording of the answer choices enough so that it would exclude snowstorms from being taken into account. That is, you can vote for "winter is over" while still not entirely rejecting the possibility of a rogue 8" storm or something.

[Powerball]

Toronto will continue to remain winter storm free, that's for certain.

Detroit will continue to nickel and dime itself to a winter of roughly 30"-40", getting a WWA between February 20th and March 20th.

[hm8]

While I think the majority of the region that hasn't gotten a WSW yet will get one eventually...the chances for a real extended period of cold and snowy winter appear slim.

[snowstormcanuck]

Toronto will continue to be winter storm free, that's for certain.

Detroit will continue to nickel and dime itself to a winter of roughly 30"-40", getting a WWA between February 20th and March 20th.

Likely, but nothing is a certitude. In fact, that's the only thing keeping me going. Even 2001-02 had the Jan 31 storm.

[Snowstorms]

The 12z Euro opens the door for spring 216-240 hours out.

Cold to the north, warm to the south, and to top that a spring like storm too.

As for the poll.....I think there will be atleast a few days where the pattern resembles a true Winter like pattern but thats about it....maybe no more than 5 days.

Something like 10" down at Pearson, we'll be lucky to get 12" let alone another 10" to prevent another record low. how f*king sad.

[snowstormcanuck]

The 12z Euro opens the door for spring 216-240 hours out.

Cold to the north, warm to the south, and to top that a spring like storm too.

As for the poll.....I think there will be atleast a few days where the pattern resembles a true Winter like pattern but thats about it....maybe no more than 5 days.

Something like 10" down at Pearson, we'll be lucky to get 12" let alone another 10" to prevent another record low. how f*king sad.

EURO has been erratic. Two runs ago it was trying to trop the PV into Quebec in the D8-10 range. I think what's telling is the lack of wavering by the EURO ensembles. Given it's accuracy this winter, that's sufficient for me to discard any potential mid February "pattern change" safely in the garbage bin.

I agree with your third paragraph. We'll have shots of cold, and hopefully some snow, but anything sustained is not in the cards.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Winter's over... At the most ~5 more inches for cities like MKE, DTW, ORD

[IWXwx]

I'm riding the Roger Smith train. Colder than normal the rest of the way until spring with little snow.

[SpartyOn]

Don't care.

[SpartyOn]

Winter's over... At the most ~5 more inches for cities like MKE, DTW, ORD

Sub 20 inch for DTW would be a significant achievement. Many people will debate the likelynes of such a milestone. Odds are stacked against it. More in line for a sub 25 or 30 inch winter. This pattern is locked in.

[TugHillMatt]

This crummy pattern sure is locked in. It will probably end just as Spring comes too...and then it will be too warm for snow and we'll have three more months of the same crap. I've been trying to stay positive, and then it get a little bit excited when I look at an extended run just for it to end up warm again. boooooooring

[AppsRunner]

Wasn't surprised to see who was the most optimistic voter here.

[Hoosier]

I guess I'll go 4.  

Oh, regarding this pattern flipping in spring, I've already seen a couple long range outlooks indicating warmer than average.  Be afraid.

[Nic]

10 more months until the pattern change!!!

[Powerball]

Oh, regarding this pattern flipping in spring, I've already seen a couple long range outlooks indicating warmer than average. Be afraid.

And we've all seen EVERY long range outlook back in October forecasting a season with widespread above average snowfall in the midwest.

In any event, if we get a winter storm then great, if we don't and get an 80*F torch with severe weather in March followed by heavy snow then that's even better (like in 2007). If neither of those happen and we're stuck in lake stratus with temps in the 30s then I might jump off the Penobscot building.

Bottom line, I really don't care about this point. If nothing appreciable happens by the 22nd then it's whatever (bomb/crippling snow dump notwithstanding)...

Likely, but nothing is a certitude. In fact, that's the only thing keeping me going. Even 2001-02 had the Jan 31 storm.

I'll give myself a 0.2% chance of being wrong with regard to Toronto remaining winter storm free.

[roardog]

I'm just disappointed because this is a La Nina winter. I always say I'd rather have a Nina than a Nino since a Nina usually has a cold Canada. Not this time I guess. lol Next year will probably be a classic warm and dry Nino winter. Wouldn't that be a kick in the nuts?

[roardog]

I guess if a Nino does form during the Summer, that usually means a cooler Summer. Also, I wouldn't mind a cool Fall for a change.

[Hoosier]

Yeah, it will be interesting to see if a Nino forms. If it doesn't form later this year, I'd have to think it would next year as that long of a Nina stretch would be pretty nuts.

[snowstormcanuck]

And we've all seen EVERY long range outlook back in October forecasting a season with widespread above average snowfall in the midwest.

In any event, if we get a winter storm then great, if we don't and get an 80*F torch with severe weather in March followed by heavy snow then that's even better (like in 2007). If neither of those happen and we're stuck in lake stratus with temps in the 30s then I might jump off the Penobscot building.

Bottom line, I really don't care about this point. If nothing appreciable happens by the 22nd then it's whatever (bomb/crippling snow dump notwithstanding)...

I'll give myself a 0.2% chance of being wrong with regard to Toronto remaining winter storm free.

I'm not too up on the chances either just based on the pattern but there's no real way to ascertain what a given storm will be doing say a month from now. That's why I can't say for certain it won't happen.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'm just disappointed because this is a La Nina winter. I always say I'd rather have a Nina than a Nino since a Nina usually has a cold Canada. Not this time I guess. lol Next year will probably be a classic warm and dry Nino winter. Wouldn't that be a kick in the nuts?

It's 1998-99 without the good times. We were joking about it in the fall. It has become our reality.

[weatherpsycho]

I really don't care at this point. I am at the point where I would rather have an awesome Severe Weather season and just let this winter die! Either way it is what it is. I will enjoy whatever is thrown my way.

[wisconsinwx]

Wasn't surprised to see who was the most optimistic voter here.

Yeah, but the tables have turned. He was one of the few touting a slow winter weather season, and now that it's looking to come to fruition, he's trying to come to the aid of his pocketbook.

[Stebo]

I voted 4, though cold and snowy aren't mutually exclusive. We could have a week or 2 of snow and it be near normal. Though honestly I am a cross between 3/4.

[snowstormcanuck]

I voted 4, though cold and snowy aren't mutually exclusive. We could have a week or 2 of snow and it be near normal. Though honestly I am a cross between 3/4.

I know. That's why I've combined them.

Seriously though, I get what you mean. I didn't want to create 8-10 choices though. Maybe I should have used more generic phraseology, like "wintry".

[BowMeHunter]

Yeah, but the tables have turned. He was one of the few touting a slow winter weather season, and now that it's looking to come to fruition, he's trying to come to the aid of his pocketbook.

He posted that before i even voted and I don't understand the ending to your post much.

I'll be stunned if we don't get another period like in janauary where things are decent and we avg below normal temps and above average snow for a couple weeks. Naso so positive about the widespread the wealth snow's though. Could be congrats La Crosse but i'm leaning more towards the eastern lakes and even OV.

[wisconsinwx]

He posted that before i even voted and I don't understand the ending to your post much.

I'll be stunned if we don't get another period like in janauary where things are decent and we avg below normal temps and above average snow for a couple weeks. Naso so positive about the widespread the wealth snow's though. Could be congrats La Crosse but i'm leaning more towards the eastern lakes and even OV.

Think LAF and TOR snow.

[an uncanny otter]

I think we might get a week or two in late February/early March of snowy and cold conditions. That would be about the extent of our winter. Although, to be honest, I really just don't care anymore. I am in full-blown apathy mode.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Think LAF and TOR snow.

His bet was that MKE would get less Snow than those two..

[Geos]

I'm on the optimistic side and will go with a decent period of snowy, colder weather. Colder meaning near normal and snowy meaning another 10" of snow. I think ORD and MKE will both be 25"+ for the seasonal total (including March). I tend to throw March in as winter, because it usually is like winter around here! lol

[wisconsinwx]

His bet was that MKE would get less Snow than those two..

That's my point, there has to be another cold and snowy period for Toronto to surpass Milwaukee's total.