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Feb 11-12 "Potential"


phlwx

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I'm not foggy (usually... :^) but:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/

and click on the Winter Weather icon (rightmost on the top row)

Thanks - I swear I was looking for that icon and didn't see it (old age maybe) - I even had an exchange with Mike Gorse about this a few weeks ago, where I suggested them labelling the icon "Snow Map" just to make it clearer what it is; they also used to have a link to the snowfall map in the news items just above the CWA map, but not today. Odd map - makes it look like everywhere is getting 2", but the 2" markers aren't always in color bands that are 2". I like Upton's inclusion of spot accumulations for specific towns, as well as the color bands (although I like the contour bands, too, if they're in the right color bands).
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Latest Wxsim with 12z data for NW Chester County PA

Flurries starting around 7pm temp at 35.5

Light snow becoming moderate during the overnight hours - 1" on the ground by 230am with the temp at 29.8

Moderate Snow between 3 and 6am diminishing to flurries by 9am totals by then 2.5" to 3.0". It then shows the snow starting back up during the early afternoon resulting in an additional 0.5" of snow. Temps then continue to fall thru the 20's and temps do not rise out of the 20's on Sunday. More snow arrives around noon on Tuesday afternoon.

Sounds good Paul. I was right with ya on the 2.5" from the other day and with a north facing yard there's still a decent snow cover remaining. Elevation definitely helps us in winters like this.

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I've seen where the models dried out at the last minute before (last year, in fact, when Rainshadow mentioned it to happening was not uncommon) and they were wrong. So hopefully they are wrong this time. Because if not, TTN will be lucky to get an inch :eek:

I like how this winter the "cut the qpf in half" rule for certain models has been thrown out since half of almost nothng works out to microscopic.

I'm really just in this for norlun wildcard action.

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I had to put your sigline on ignore. Didn't see an ignore avatar option.

I blocked the sigline too...For the avatar, the only thing you can really do is turn adblock on, but I find it typically disables too many avatars, and often not the ones I don't want to see anyway...I went up to NYC for work on Tuesday using NJ Transit, and as luck would have it, I got to ride up with several hundred rowdy, partying Giants fans headed to their parade...

It was awesome... :arrowhead:

At this point, I am just hoping we get more than we did the other night, which was very meager, so expectations are low...I am on the hook for at least one sledworthy event this year to a certain little girl, so I'm hoping we can pull something together before spring...

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Might be interesting if this deformation band sets up along I-95 as the HRRR is suggesting.

+13 HR from 20Z HRRR

1ref_t3sfc_f13.png

+12 HR from 21Z HRRR...not quite as tight a band...

cref_t3sfc_f12.png

...but +11 HR/21Z showing a pretty batch of 30-35 dBZ echoes along I-95 toward Baltimore and DC aligned toward Wilmington and Philly.

cref_t3sfc_f11.png

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