jimmosk Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 foggy - where did you get the NWS snowfall map? I'm not foggy (usually... :^) but: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/ and click on the Winter Weather icon (rightmost on the top row) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm not foggy (usually... :^) but: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/ and click on the Winter Weather icon (rightmost on the top row) Thanks - I swear I was looking for that icon and didn't see it (old age maybe) - I even had an exchange with Mike Gorse about this a few weeks ago, where I suggested them labelling the icon "Snow Map" just to make it clearer what it is; they also used to have a link to the snowfall map in the news items just above the CWA map, but not today. Odd map - makes it look like everywhere is getting 2", but the 2" markers aren't always in color bands that are 2". I like Upton's inclusion of spot accumulations for specific towns, as well as the color bands (although I like the contour bands, too, if they're in the right color bands). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS is uber-dry, yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Latest Wxsim with 12z data for NW Chester County PA Flurries starting around 7pm temp at 35.5 Light snow becoming moderate during the overnight hours - 1" on the ground by 230am with the temp at 29.8 Moderate Snow between 3 and 6am diminishing to flurries by 9am totals by then 2.5" to 3.0". It then shows the snow starting back up during the early afternoon resulting in an additional 0.5" of snow. Temps then continue to fall thru the 20's and temps do not rise out of the 20's on Sunday. More snow arrives around noon on Tuesday afternoon. Sounds good Paul. I was right with ya on the 2.5" from the other day and with a north facing yard there's still a decent snow cover remaining. Elevation definitely helps us in winters like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Definately time to start nowcasting, I don't think the models have a good handle on what is going to evolve with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS is uber-dry, yuck! steve, time to just look at the radar and see what happens. If you are expecting over 3 inches then you need to start drinking heavily.. I know i have already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I've seen where the models dried out at the last minute before (last year, in fact, when Rainshadow mentioned it to happening was not uncommon) and they were wrong. So hopefully they are wrong this time. Because if not, TTN will be lucky to get an inch :eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 http://snowball.mill...ooks/latest.jpg Eric Horst's snowfall map. I am on the Hoist truck for this event. Hopefully the 0 Z runs come in more favorable.... Mt Holly going with 1-2...in Edison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I've seen where the models dried out at the last minute before (last year, in fact, when Rainshadow mentioned it to happening was not uncommon) and they were wrong. So hopefully they are wrong this time. Because if not, TTN will be lucky to get an inch :eek: I like how this winter the "cut the qpf in half" rule for certain models has been thrown out since half of almost nothng works out to microscopic. I'm really just in this for norlun wildcard action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I've seen where the models dried out at the last minute before (last year, in fact, when Rainshadow mentioned it to happening was not uncommon) and they were wrong. So hopefully they are wrong this time. Because if not, TTN will be lucky to get an inch :eek: have no fear ray, the rgem is on your side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Light snow just started falling here, temp 37.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This thread needs more depressed statements and in-fighting Anyway.....glad to see the RGEM holding serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If you want to post in this subforum that sig will have to go. Cloudy and 42 here. Not sure how much of this will stuck just like the last storm, but at least it's something to make it look like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This thread needs more depressed statements and in-fighting What forum is doing that sort of thing? Hmmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If you want to post in this subforum that sig will have to go. Is that a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is that a threat. I had to put your sigline on ignore. Didn't see an ignore avatar option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is that a threat. Just post something like: all people who live by the models, die by the models statements or go back and repost Colin's statements that every storm event is a rain producing event and base this statement on the 300 hour GFS model or ensembles and the gloves will come off fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 What forum is doing that sort of thing? Hmmm? NYC with 3 diff obs threads for a 1-3 inch storm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I had to put your sigline on ignore. Didn't see an ignore avatar option. Hope I'm not voted out of the subforum and thrown up into NYC region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I had to put your sigline on ignore. Didn't see an ignore avatar option. I blocked the sigline too...For the avatar, the only thing you can really do is turn adblock on, but I find it typically disables too many avatars, and often not the ones I don't want to see anyway...I went up to NYC for work on Tuesday using NJ Transit, and as luck would have it, I got to ride up with several hundred rowdy, partying Giants fans headed to their parade... It was awesome... At this point, I am just hoping we get more than we did the other night, which was very meager, so expectations are low...I am on the hook for at least one sledworthy event this year to a certain little girl, so I'm hoping we can pull something together before spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Might be interesting if this deformation band sets up along I-95 as the HRRR is suggesting. +13 HR from 20Z HRRR +12 HR from 21Z HRRR...not quite as tight a band... ...but +11 HR/21Z showing a pretty batch of 30-35 dBZ echoes along I-95 toward Baltimore and DC aligned toward Wilmington and Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 NYC with 3 diff obs threads for a 1-3 inch storm, lol. That's just hilarious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 That's just hilarious... LOL, well in this winter an advisory-level event is something to get excited about. But 3 threads does seem a bit extreme tbh. Two years ago we were digging out from 50" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 That's just hilarious... In fact, its so funny I feel a need to document it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 rr 22z total accum snowfall with more to fall... newest hrrr tot accum snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 a request...less subforum bashing and more HRRR hallucination panels....is HRRR more useful for convective stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 15z sref snowfall probability. Has shifted a little south in past couple of cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I'll take another inch. I'm completely fine with just keeping everything white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 15z sref snowfall probability. Has shifted a little south in past couple of cycles to go with this, here is the snowfall probabilities per txt wise for phl 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 1in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 15.6 26.2 70.0 78.0 77.5 67.5 12hr Prob Snowfall>= 2in 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 9.1 32.2 26.6 8.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 just looking at the ruc and the snort term models. It looks like the main "cusp" of this is between 4am-9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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