jrodd321 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NWS forecast for my area is plain rain tonight. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NWS forecast for my area is plain rain tonight. Damn. I would'nt pay attention to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No big melt off Sunday and if JB is correct then more snow on snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, I'm going to go with 2-3" for the NW burbs. A decent event for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 so far the ggem looks to be the wettest model of them all. It brings the inverted trof like feature right over the area and drops another .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 this should get the weenies erect...the usually wet nmm, is well, wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 this should get the weenies erect...the usually wet nmm, is well, wet Well the 12z CMC at hours 162-174 would make weenies burst… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Tony, The guy that developed the program has it using a mix of home weather station, advection routines based on upwind data and a combination of the NAM/GFS to produce a forecast whenever I want. He is a programmer with a passion for the weather and developed it mainly to try to forecast temps. It is very interesting and generally good with local start and stop times etc. I have noticed over the years that it seems to have a warm bias but overall a nice little program to play with. Paul Paul, I don't know how they do it, but overall those forecasts seem pretty good, nothing outrageous in either direction. At least you shouldn't have much ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro and GFS are aligned... looks pretty straightforward... 2-3 in the NW burbs and toward TTN, less south and east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Latest Wxsim with 12z data for NW Chester County PA Flurries starting around 7pm temp at 35.5 Light snow becoming moderate during the overnight hours - 1" on the ground by 230am with the temp at 29.8 Moderate Snow between 3 and 6am diminishing to flurries by 9am totals by then 2.5" to 3.0". It then shows the snow starting back up during the early afternoon resulting in an additional 0.5" of snow. Temps then continue to fall thru the 20's and temps do not rise out of the 20's on Sunday. More snow arrives around noon on Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Temps in the low-mid 40s phl and SE with mainly upper 30s NW. Good thing its its targeted for overnight and early AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 AccuWx and the NWS seem unimpressed in spite of what I am reading in this topic. 2-3" should warrant some kind of advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Still like 2-4" around Trenton, though gut says its closer to 2" than 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 AccuWx and the NWS seem unimpressed in spite of what I am reading in this topic. 2-3" should warrant some kind of advisory. Yeah I'm surprised to see that WWA's aren't being issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah I'm surprised to see that WWA's aren't being issued? You probably won't see anything before 3:30 or so using history as a guide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Feel like somewhere between 2-3" will be the total from this system in upper bucks But that arctic chill dropping in might squeeze enough out in snowshowers tail end to put it over 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro and GFS are aligned... looks pretty straightforward... 2-3 in the NW burbs and toward TTN, less south and east of the city. ...but DT's first guess says differently. Who do you believe, global models that have been keying toward this solution for a 72 hours or DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro and GFS are aligned... looks pretty straightforward... 2-3 in the NW burbs and toward TTN, less south and east of the city. Yep...pretty straightforward call. Someone might get 4"...Mt. Trappe might get 5" but it's a straightforward forecast for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yep...pretty straightforward call. Someone might get 4"...Mt. Trappe might get 5" but it's a straightforward forecast for the most part. can't believe the spotter from Mt Trappe got the most from Wednesday's event, and it got published in the storm report. Honestly, that spotter should be removed from the database until further notice. It sticks out like a sore thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18Z NAM QPF appears more in line (less) with the Euro/GFS from 12z. under 0.25" for SE PA 0.20"-0.40" southern Jerz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg Eric Horst's snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Good thing its the 18Z NAM but sheesh it sure cut the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Good thing its the 18Z NAM but sheesh it sure cut the QPF. U scurred? Usually 18z, doubles amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 U scurred? 'lil bit... at least as far as making 2". 4 is looking more and more out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 'lil bit... at least as far as making 2". 4 is looking more and more out of the question. At this point, I'm almost more intrigued by what does (or doesn't) happen Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I have honestly no idea what to expect. I can see this thing being all rain or ending up at 2" if it's colder than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like my 1" or so call from this morning for PHL. I did bump them into 1-3 but as a broadbrush since that rogue band tomorrow PM might coax an extra lil something for the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z NAM is a little cooler may offset lower qpf in the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 foggy - where did you get the NWS snowfall map? Obviously the URL shows it's on the NWS Mt. Holly site, but I've been looking all over the site and I don't see the usual link on their homepage above the CWA map and I searched around some other places too. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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