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Feb 11-12 "Potential"


phlwx

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Tony,

The guy that developed the program has it using a mix of home weather station, advection routines based on upwind data and a combination of the NAM/GFS to produce a forecast whenever I want. He is a programmer with a passion for the weather and developed it mainly to try to forecast temps. It is very interesting and generally good with local start and stop times etc. I have noticed over the years that it seems to have a warm bias but overall a nice little program to play with.

Paul

Paul,

I don't know how they do it, but overall those forecasts seem pretty good, nothing outrageous in either direction. At least you shouldn't have much ptype issues.

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Latest Wxsim with 12z data for NW Chester County PA

Flurries starting around 7pm temp at 35.5

Light snow becoming moderate during the overnight hours - 1" on the ground by 230am with the temp at 29.8

Moderate Snow between 3 and 6am diminishing to flurries by 9am totals by then 2.5" to 3.0". It then shows the snow starting back up during the early afternoon resulting in an additional 0.5" of snow. Temps then continue to fall thru the 20's and temps do not rise out of the 20's on Sunday. More snow arrives around noon on Tuesday afternoon.

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Euro and GFS are aligned... looks pretty straightforward... 2-3 in the NW burbs and toward TTN, less south and east of the city.

Yep...pretty straightforward call. Someone might get 4"...Mt. Trappe might get 5" but it's a straightforward forecast for the most part.

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Yep...pretty straightforward call. Someone might get 4"...Mt. Trappe might get 5" but it's a straightforward forecast for the most part.

can't believe the spotter from Mt Trappe got the most from Wednesday's event, and it got published in the storm report. Honestly, that spotter should be removed from the database until further notice. It sticks out like a sore thumb.

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