ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County Pa has the snow beginning by around 8pm tomorrow night and becoming moderate within a couple hours. Snow will continue overnight into Saturday morning with total accumulations before ending on Saturday by 7am of 2" to 4". Our next snowstorm begins around midday on Tuesday. We may actually get back to normal season to date snowfall by mid week. We are currently at 15.2" season to date only 3.5" below our seasonal norm here in Chester County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County Pa has the snow beginning by around 8pm tomorrow night and becoming moderate within a couple hours. Snow will continue overnight into Saturday morning with total accumulations before ending on Saturday by 7am of 2" to 4". Our next snowstorm begins around midday on Tuesday. We may actually get back to normal season to date snowfall by mid week. We are currently at 15.2" season to date only 3.5" below our seasonal norm here in Chester County funny what 530' less in elevation does to your totals. I have less than half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS and NAM clown maps both have 1-2" for here. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS and NAM clown maps both have 1-2" for here. I'd take that. I'll take that and run with it. Hopefully we can pull something near there out, neighbor. Then again, a dusting is a win for me at this point, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'll take that and run with it. Hopefully we can pull something near there out, neighbor. Then again, a dusting is a win for me at this point, lol. Yeah, I hear ya. I think the most we've had is basically a coating so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Been at work most of the day. How are the poconos looking? A little too far NW to get anything? ( don't need accounts, just precip %) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 HPC says f you PHL subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Solutions are all over the place... with the higher QPF suggested and assuming its a tad colder, I could see 4-6". I could also see 1-2". So split it down the middle and will revise tomorrow as necessary. nothing has gone right this season except for the October storm. I saw in the NYC forum one of the early short rage models went east some with the higher QPF that earlier was just a wee west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 nam continues to get warmer in the bl compared to 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 nam continues to get warmer in the bl compared to 18z... Yeah really... still all rain at 1AM tomorrow night along I-95... not even a hint of snow in that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ouch... even at 7AM it looks like mainly rain at TTN... freezing level is still well off the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Cold enough NW of PHL for a good thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM is struggling to consolidate a low center. QPF is half decent but it is accumulated over a long period of time with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Like past storms this winter, winners will be away from I-95 if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Based on this, the coldest 3-hourly sounding, I'm not even sure it ever changes over at TTN on this NAM run... yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Lehigh Valley FTW. ABE soundings look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This run has terrible feedback issues. It develops 4 lows off the coast with more QPF around all those areas. Look at 500mb, where the northern stream has continuously been digging more since 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Lehigh Valley FTW. ABE soundings look good. I would love this solution, but it won't happen. Look at the feedback issues. No way it happens as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Quite the number of areas of surface low pressures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I would love this solution, but it won't happen. Look at the feedback issues. No way it happens as modeled. Well, I'd rather be in ABE (and I'm not), rather than PHL (which I'm not either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Some new remarks from 9:45 AFD: A BIT OF SNOW TROUBLE LOOMS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH PROBABLY RAIN TO START IN SNJ/MOST OF DE/MOST MD POSSIBLY EVEN BACK TO PHL. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED ON THE MID SHIFT. COULD END UP AN ADVY SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL PA THRU NW NJ...POTENTIALLY LEHIGH VALLEY ENEWD TO KSMQ AND KFWN. 00Z NAM IS AGGRESSIVE AND SEEMINGLY WARM...12Z/9 UKMET WAS A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN THE SEEMINGLY TONED DOWN 12Z/9 ECMWF. NOTICING 18Z SREF AND GEFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ADVY SNOW AMTS UP THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Best snow on the NAM north of the turnpike to the LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 HPC says f you PHL subforum. This map sucks. They are thinking a major low transfer? This clip says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 from the NE forum.........hopefully the GFS does not have any issues...................... i don't care what anyone says at this point; this nam solution IS convective feedback incarnate! that vmax is almost damped out of existence but then mysteriously comes back from the dead to somehow dent the isopleths - right. i bet it has a tornado producing meso right there too. bahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RGEM is rather dry, .2 inch liquid in a narrow strip from Trenton Northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RGEM is rather dry, .2 inch liquid in a narrow strip from Trenton Northeastward. Which site do you use for the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RGEM is rather dry, .2 inch liquid in a narrow strip from Trenton Northeastward. It's been pretty consistent with its drier solution. Anyone thinking the poconos get in on some action? I'm not familiar with the geography up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS looks good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 0z GFS is leaps and bounds better than the NAM. No feedback issues at all from what I can tell. It develops one low and sticks with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Sooo, close to a phase: Totals: Moderate event on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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