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Feb 11-12 "Potential"


phlwx

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Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County Pa has the snow beginning by around 8pm tomorrow night and becoming moderate within a couple hours. Snow will continue overnight into Saturday morning with total accumulations before ending on Saturday by 7am of 2" to 4". Our next snowstorm begins around midday on Tuesday. We may actually get back to normal season to date snowfall by mid week. We are currently at 15.2" season to date only 3.5" below our seasonal norm here in Chester County

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Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County Pa has the snow beginning by around 8pm tomorrow night and becoming moderate within a couple hours. Snow will continue overnight into Saturday morning with total accumulations before ending on Saturday by 7am of 2" to 4". Our next snowstorm begins around midday on Tuesday. We may actually get back to normal season to date snowfall by mid week. We are currently at 15.2" season to date only 3.5" below our seasonal norm here in Chester County

funny what 530' less in elevation does to your totals. I have less than half. :lol:

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Solutions are all over the place... with the higher QPF suggested and assuming its a tad colder, I could see 4-6". I could also see 1-2". So split it down the middle and will revise tomorrow as necessary.

nothing has gone right this season except for the October storm. :santa:

I saw in the NYC forum one of the early short rage models went east some with the higher QPF that earlier was just a wee west.

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Some new remarks from 9:45 AFD:

A BIT OF SNOW TROUBLE LOOMS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH PROBABLY RAIN

TO START IN SNJ/MOST OF DE/MOST MD POSSIBLY EVEN BACK TO PHL. THIS

WILL BE REEVALUATED ON THE MID SHIFT. COULD END UP AN ADVY SNOW

EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL PA THRU NW NJ...POTENTIALLY LEHIGH

VALLEY ENEWD TO KSMQ AND KFWN. 00Z NAM IS AGGRESSIVE AND SEEMINGLY

WARM...12Z/9 UKMET WAS A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN THE SEEMINGLY TONED

DOWN 12Z/9 ECMWF. NOTICING 18Z SREF AND GEFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING

ADVY SNOW AMTS UP THERE.

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from the NE forum.........hopefully the GFS does not have any issues......................

i don't care what anyone says at this point; this nam solution IS convective feedback incarnate! that vmax is almost damped out of existence but then mysteriously comes back from the dead to somehow dent the isopleths - right. i bet it has a tornado producing meso right there too. bahahaha

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RGEM is rather dry, .2 inch liquid in a narrow strip from Trenton Northeastward.

It's been pretty consistent with its drier solution.

Anyone thinking the poconos get in on some action? I'm not familiar with the geography up there.

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