96blizz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Definitely echo the sentiments of other that the pbp by tombo was such a welcome sight today. The last couple of years, that was often the highlight of my day --- with the BDB timeframe and the January 26th snow bomb events being my favorite. I'm most often a silent vieiwer to the site, but have learned so much from all the regulars with so much extraordinary insight. Thank you. That said, this is the one day I'm hoping for less snow than usual b/c I have killer Flyers/Rangers tix for Saturday's 1PM game. Thoughts on timing of this (my brother is supposed to come into town for it...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalWX Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That said, this is the one day I'm hoping for less snow than usual b/c I have killer Flyers/Rangers tix for Saturday's 1PM game. Maybe Bryz will get snowed in and you'll see a win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, for one thing, with a relatively warm BL, I tend to think roads won't be that much of an issue, especially after the recent warmth. Especially by midday after precip has mostly tapered off. Temps should rebound at least into the mid-30s (GFS) possibly the low 40s (NAM and EC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z sref continue trend to a stronger system. 0.25 - 0.5 qpf accross region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, for one thing, with a relatively warm BL, I tend to think roads won't be that much of an issue, especially after the recent warmth. Especially by midday after precip has mostly tapered off. Temps should rebound at least into the mid-30s (GFS) possibly the low 40s (NAM and EC). Great --- thanks Ray. I can enjoy the snow in the AM and then enjoy the game as well! The tix weren't cheap and it's my brother's Xmas gift... Also learned a ton from you over the years Ray. I know enough to be the 'weather guy' at work --- but know my limits/role when it comes to the forums. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 SREFs did a complete turnaround from 9z. Now they bring a moderate event to areas that stay all or mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Great --- thanks Ray. I can enjoy the snow in the AM and then enjoy the game as well! The tix weren't cheap and it's my brother's Xmas gift... Also learned a ton from you over the years Ray. I know enough to be the 'weather guy' at work --- but know my limits/role when it comes to the forums. Thank you! Agree entirely with your comments about Ray and the price of sports tix. MSG good seats for a Knicks game is about $300.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i should be careful with this "love fest"... pride goeth before a fall thanks though, guys! Anyway, new NAM definitely starts as rain back home, probably lose 0.05-0.10 to rain or melting snow before it starts accumulating. So that's 3-4" instead of 4-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i should be careful with this "love fest"... pride goeth before a fall thanks though, guys! Anyway, new NAM definitely starts as rain back home, probably lose 0.05-0.10 to rain or melting snow before it starts accumulating. So that's 3-4" instead of 4-5". Heck of a gradient in QPF across SE PA. 0.10-0.45 (southeast of I-78), then Jersey 0.40-0.80" (west to east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 OK, anyway, here's an actual forecast... best bet around Trenton (cuz I forecast for nowhere else unless requested) is 2-4". Starting as rain, of course. And probably some melting on Saturday after its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wonder if I should be going out tomorrow and buying snow boots and pants for my daughter...if there is enough snow for sledding. I really hope so! Hope the qpf trends up in the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 per nam phl gets .44qpf..they waste about .1 or so on mixing/rain... so a 2-3 events looks good off the nam.. the northern and western burbs look to do well esp from mt wayne to dyl area where mixing will be very limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 per nam phl gets .44qpf..they waste about .1 or so on mixing/rain... so a 2-3 events looks good off the nam.. the northern and western burbs look to do well esp from mt wayne to dyl area where mixing will be very limited. feel like iwe've been down this road with the NAM and its overdone QPF about 48 hours out.....I know you arent saying you believe it, just reading what the model says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Based on this winter, set the bar low (a few slushy inches) and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 gfs is coming further east with the low development and not as wet obviously. looks like about .25 for the city on the gfs up the i95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 gfs is coming further east with the low development and not as wet obviously. looks like about .25 for the city on the gfs up the i95 corridor Still a rather mild BL though... nearly as warm as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still a rather mild BL though... nearly as warm as the NAM. yea that initial lgt stuff looks to be rain or mix, so like .1 or so wasted...verbatim on the gfs maybe an inch or so of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still a rather mild BL though... nearly as warm as the NAM. im surprised you went 2-4 for ttn, thats pretty balls to the wall for ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 im surprised you went 2-4 for ttn, thats pretty balls to the wall for ray. Solutions are all over the place... with the higher QPF suggested and assuming its a tad colder, I could see 4-6". I could also see 1-2". So split it down the middle and will revise tomorrow as necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Solutions are all over the place... with the higher QPF suggested and assuming its a tad colder, I could see 14-16". I could also see 1-2'. So split it down the middle and will revise tomorrow as necessary. interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I feel as if our comparitively warm ocean is going to keep extreme S Jersey and DelMarVa mostly rain with some snow showers on the tail end. Maybe a flash freeze as this pulls away and arctic air is drawn in. I hope you guys that live inland enjoy this event and get some sledding in. We still have 7 more snowless winters to go to compensate for the last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 gfs ens mean is a general .25-.5 from i78 south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Similar situation to last week where the op runs were weaker (correctly) than the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 My best guess right now is 1-3 SE PA, with some 4" totals in Bucks... S NJ will range from coating-1" south of LBI to 2" or so along 295. C & NE NJ (east of 287 in NE, south of 78 in C NJ) could get 1-3/2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 FWIW, with a norlun type setup the ensembles are pretty much trash in terms of "widespread" totals except for knowing what the jackpot range is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Look like tonight and tomorrow the trough/arctic front will becoming into better data. This should hopefully bring the models into agreement on precipitation and snow amounts. Impressive digging with the trough right now though.. Overall IMO looks like a 2-4 event Philly on Northeast with close to 2-3 for Philly. any slightest change through can take thses amounts either way. should at least be interesting with several features at play. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/wv2_east_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Are we expecting 2-4 as far north as Berks/Lehigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 FWIW, with a norlun type setup the ensembles are pretty much trash in terms of "widespread" totals except for knowing what the jackpot range is going to be. and as of right now the best shot for that looks to be just to the west of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Are we expecting 2-4 as far north as Berks/Lehigh Personally I think you will be on the northwest fringe of that but then again it should be colder for you guys so with possible ratios (if any) you might be good for 2-3. Should be able to have this nailed down tomorrow after 12z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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