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Feb 11-12 "Potential"


phlwx

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Definitely echo the sentiments of other that the pbp by tombo was such a welcome sight today. The last couple of years, that was often the highlight of my day --- with the BDB timeframe and the January 26th snow bomb events being my favorite. I'm most often a silent vieiwer to the site, but have learned so much from all the regulars with so much extraordinary insight. Thank you.

That said, this is the one day I'm hoping for less snow than usual b/c I have killer Flyers/Rangers tix for Saturday's 1PM game. Thoughts on timing of this (my brother is supposed to come into town for it...).

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Well, for one thing, with a relatively warm BL, I tend to think roads won't be that much of an issue, especially after the recent warmth. Especially by midday after precip has mostly tapered off. Temps should rebound at least into the mid-30s (GFS) possibly the low 40s (NAM and EC).

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Well, for one thing, with a relatively warm BL, I tend to think roads won't be that much of an issue, especially after the recent warmth. Especially by midday after precip has mostly tapered off. Temps should rebound at least into the mid-30s (GFS) possibly the low 40s (NAM and EC).

Great --- thanks Ray. I can enjoy the snow in the AM and then enjoy the game as well! The tix weren't cheap and it's my brother's Xmas gift...

Also learned a ton from you over the years Ray. I know enough to be the 'weather guy' at work --- but know my limits/role when it comes to the forums. Thank you!

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Great --- thanks Ray. I can enjoy the snow in the AM and then enjoy the game as well! The tix weren't cheap and it's my brother's Xmas gift...

Also learned a ton from you over the years Ray. I know enough to be the 'weather guy' at work --- but know my limits/role when it comes to the forums. Thank you!

Agree entirely with your comments about Ray and the price of sports tix. MSG good seats for a Knicks game is about $300.00.

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i should be careful with this "love fest"... pride goeth before a fall :axe: thanks though, guys! :wub:

Anyway, new NAM definitely starts as rain back home, probably lose 0.05-0.10 to rain or melting snow before it starts accumulating. So that's 3-4" instead of 4-5".

Heck of a gradient in QPF across SE PA. 0.10-0.45 (southeast of I-78), then Jersey 0.40-0.80" (west to east)

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per nam phl gets .44qpf..they waste about .1 or so on mixing/rain... so a 2-3 events looks good off the nam.. the northern and western burbs look to do well esp from mt wayne to dyl area where mixing will be very limited.

feel like iwe've been down this road with the NAM and its overdone QPF about 48 hours out.....I know you arent saying you believe it, just reading what the model says...

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im surprised you went 2-4 for ttn, thats pretty balls to the wall for ray.

Solutions are all over the place... with the higher QPF suggested and assuming its a tad colder, I could see 4-6". I could also see 1-2". So split it down the middle and will revise tomorrow as necessary.

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I feel as if our comparitively warm ocean is going to keep extreme S Jersey and DelMarVa mostly rain with some snow showers on the tail end. Maybe a flash freeze as this pulls away and arctic air is drawn in. I hope you guys that live inland enjoy this event and get some sledding in. We still have 7 more snowless winters to go to compensate for the last two.

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Look like tonight and tomorrow the trough/arctic front will becoming into better data. This should hopefully bring the models into agreement on precipitation and snow amounts.

Impressive digging with the trough right now though.. Overall IMO looks like a 2-4 event Philly on Northeast with close to 2-3 for Philly.

any slightest change through can take thses amounts either way. should at least be interesting with several features at play. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/wv2_east_anim.gif

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