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Feb 11-12 "Potential"


phlwx

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GEM has a low pressure track through the lakes which bypasses you guys. GFS is too weak with development of a low as the front passes to do much. EC and NOGAPS are relatively similar with their low development as the front is coming through, throwing back some precip... but EC BL temps are marginal esp. I-95 SE.

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GEM has a low pressure track through the lakes which bypasses you guys. GFS is too weak with development of a low as the front passes to do much. EC and NOGAPS are relatively similar with their low development as the front is coming through, throwing back some precip... but EC BL temps are marginal esp. I-95 SE.

just going off the wunderground clown snow maps... threy have 1-2 for the city...more east and northeast

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post-105-0-20558000-1328780485.gif

This might...if it goes right...be PHL's biggest snow of the winter. The GFS is more aggressive than the Euro on this band developing...the EC just has a bunch of snow showers around the region on Saturday. NAM has a similar band to the GFS moving through early Saturday morning...but temps are more marginal on the NAM if you are south/east of 95...

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Eh... right now, to me, this looks like 1-3" of wet snow. I guess if its more than, what, 2.3", then it would be PHL's biggest?

Yep!

(I could see a 4"* total out of this system wherever the band sets up...FWIW, the weenie maps on wunderground show a band of snow on the EC during the day Saturday...whereas the GFS is early morning/AM while the NAM is mainly overnight...but I agree that 1-3 is coming more common...but in this winter it could still qualify as the "biggest" for some spots)

* -- any 4" total excludes that of Mt. Trappe, which is line for 5-8 of enhanced metric accumulation.

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Yep!

(I could see a 4"* total out of this system wherever the band sets up...FWIW, the weenie maps on wunderground show a band of snow on the EC during the day Saturday...whereas the GFS is early morning/AM while the NAM is mainly overnight...but I agree that 1-3 is coming more common...but in this winter it could still qualify as the "biggest" for some spots)

* -- any 4" total excludes that of Mt. Trappe, which is line for 5-8 of enhanced metric accumulation.

also gotta watch out for the upper air distrubance that rotates down after the storm moves out. Euro has been hinting at this. Some runs have it to our west some have it affecting us. The gfs ens members show it to.

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Wouldn't be surprised at all to see an inch or two of snow on Saturday. 2" would get my total to 10" for the season, so here's hoping.

Finally, we have a storm that is riding just off the coast and developing while doing so. This might be the first of these Miller storms we've had all year. LC's been all over this one fwiw. Shame we dont have any blocking in place though. 1-3" or 2-4" along I-95 looks about right with this one.

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GFS trying to put the pieces together for dare i say moderate event on saturday.

Even though GFS looks better, there are limits with this kind of setup... i guess it could get to moderate right by the coast if it stays snow...i kind of like the setup for eastern new england, seen them cash in on this type of storm a lot

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Even though GFS looks better, there are limits with this kind of setup... i guess it could get to moderate right by the coast if it stays snow...i kind of like the setup for eastern new england, seen them cash in on this type of storm a lot

Synoptic ally, our best set up this year.

2 yrs or last year ago, we'd be talking foot accums, but alas, no blocking limits this set up. Let's see how it goes. I'm hoping to get some fresh powder up camelback Saturday. Even 1-2" would be a god send the way this ski season has gone.

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