chubbs Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Different solution from GFS tonight. No weekend threat but drops PV into Quebec and develops a Valentines day overrunning event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro shows low developing overhead...snow showers on Saturday, cold Sunday-Monday before moderation kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro shows low developing overhead...snow showers on Saturday, cold Sunday-Monday before moderation kicks in. Its 2nd run in a row where it throws out a norlun trof winner. Ensembles look like they favor maybe a slightly farther north cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro continues to throw out the norlun bone and the "baggy pants" look with the system on Saturday. GFS just shows the cold front blasting through early in the day with snow showers breaking out along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GEM has a low pressure track through the lakes which bypasses you guys. GFS is too weak with development of a low as the front passes to do much. EC and NOGAPS are relatively similar with their low development as the front is coming through, throwing back some precip... but EC BL temps are marginal esp. I-95 SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GEM has a low pressure track through the lakes which bypasses you guys. GFS is too weak with development of a low as the front passes to do much. EC and NOGAPS are relatively similar with their low development as the front is coming through, throwing back some precip... but EC BL temps are marginal esp. I-95 SE. just going off the wunderground clown snow maps... threy have 1-2 for the city...more east and northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yeah I know, but those EC snow maps on Wunderground tend to overdo snowfall in marginal temp situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 This might...if it goes right...be PHL's biggest snow of the winter. The GFS is more aggressive than the Euro on this band developing...the EC just has a bunch of snow showers around the region on Saturday. NAM has a similar band to the GFS moving through early Saturday morning...but temps are more marginal on the NAM if you are south/east of 95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Eh... right now, to me, this looks like 1-3" of wet snow. I guess if its more than, what, 2.3", then it would be PHL's biggest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Eh... right now, to me, this looks like 1-3" of wet snow. I guess if its more than, what, 2.3", then it would be PHL's biggest? Yep! (I could see a 4"* total out of this system wherever the band sets up...FWIW, the weenie maps on wunderground show a band of snow on the EC during the day Saturday...whereas the GFS is early morning/AM while the NAM is mainly overnight...but I agree that 1-3 is coming more common...but in this winter it could still qualify as the "biggest" for some spots) * -- any 4" total excludes that of Mt. Trappe, which is line for 5-8 of enhanced metric accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yep! (I could see a 4"* total out of this system wherever the band sets up...FWIW, the weenie maps on wunderground show a band of snow on the EC during the day Saturday...whereas the GFS is early morning/AM while the NAM is mainly overnight...but I agree that 1-3 is coming more common...but in this winter it could still qualify as the "biggest" for some spots) * -- any 4" total excludes that of Mt. Trappe, which is line for 5-8 of enhanced metric accumulation. also gotta watch out for the upper air distrubance that rotates down after the storm moves out. Euro has been hinting at this. Some runs have it to our west some have it affecting us. The gfs ens members show it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 06z gfs backed off. Other models not that bullish. Looks like our other recent events light qpf and marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Last five runs that the EC has had a norlun and in four different states and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z NAM develops coastal closer to coast. Lets see if the other models bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised at all to see an inch or two of snow on Saturday. 2" would get my total to 10" for the season, so here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised at all to see an inch or two of snow on Saturday. 2" would get my total to 10" for the season, so here's hoping. Finally, we have a storm that is riding just off the coast and developing while doing so. This might be the first of these Miller storms we've had all year. LC's been all over this one fwiw. Shame we dont have any blocking in place though. 1-3" or 2-4" along I-95 looks about right with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 nam is spitting out .33 qpf for the city...some of that in the beginning is lost to mixing like .05 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 nam is spitting out .33 qpf for the city...some of that in the beginning is lost to mixing like .05 or so. Tom, you have the soundings for N&W of the city, say for the Doylestown area? I'm assuming all snow up this way based on what you just posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Tom, you have the soundings for N&W of the city, say for the Doylestown area? I'm assuming all snow up this way based on what you just posted? you get .36 qpf...may start as a little mix but you look fine up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z nam looks better. our friends to the north could get a nice hit! maybe best hit around here since oct? need a nice gfs / euro run. fingers crossd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM would probably be my biggest snowstorm yet this winter. Hope the GFS recovers, and the Euro could always come in drier. Definitely looks good for at LEAST light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS already looks stronger with trough in southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS already looks stronger with trough in southwest The trends are our friends 36 hours ago we didnt even have light snow in the forecast for this, now we are clearly trending toward a strong coastal nearer to the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS trying to put the pieces together for dare i say moderate event on saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GFS h5 fields are better looking for sure. Slower stronger northern stream and more consolidates southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 lol, if this trends any stronger on the GFS we have a coastal bomb with a 4-6" hit east of the Delaware. I'd take anything close to an inch, but wow, the trends are great with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Where's Tombo? He should be all over this do have to say I like the way things are going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS trying to put the pieces together for dare i say moderate event on saturday. Even though GFS looks better, there are limits with this kind of setup... i guess it could get to moderate right by the coast if it stays snow...i kind of like the setup for eastern new england, seen them cash in on this type of storm a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 9z SREFs not quite to the level of the NAM/GFS, but have trended slightly better from 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Even though GFS looks better, there are limits with this kind of setup... i guess it could get to moderate right by the coast if it stays snow...i kind of like the setup for eastern new england, seen them cash in on this type of storm a lot Synoptic ally, our best set up this year. 2 yrs or last year ago, we'd be talking foot accums, but alas, no blocking limits this set up. Let's see how it goes. I'm hoping to get some fresh powder up camelback Saturday. Even 1-2" would be a god send the way this ski season has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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