GD0815 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 GFS really isnt that bad, looks like right around .25 in and around the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Looks like a moderate band setting up west of DC. Probably will be a band that slowly changes some over to snow that start as rain up here. Light snow and 35.7 here in northeast Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 light rain 36.4 ne philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 6z NAM has the band's axis for this evening generally SEG-LNS-just west of DOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 03 sref avg is centered on phl with spread in individual members across region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sneaking a look at tonight feature.... 6z NAM and 6z RGEM look great, 00z Euro a touch west of our region but we'd still get clipped. 00z/6z GFS similar to Euro. Should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 12z Nam shows a break in the precip. by midday, but then swings round 2 overhead tonight. Solid 0.10"-0.20" across SE PA and southern Jersey tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Late this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nice little band swinging through here in northern DE into SEPA. Big pillow-like moderate snow. Loving it. Hoping to get in on that Norlun like feature tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 snow tapers off after 10 PM this evening per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 What time is round 2 Norlun supposed to start?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 What time is round 2 Norlun supposed to start?? 4ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 4ish. Give the Euro credit on this one (although it had in about 4 different states in 8 runs), taking the leap it will happen, never wavered. Unfortuately I sense several mutli-vehicular accidents later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Anyone know if 12Z NAM hits Northern DE tonight? I'm on my Blackberry, won't get a chance to check 'til later, and am dying to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I've never seen so much excitement over .01-.1 snow before in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Anyone know if 12Z NAM hits Northern DE tonight? I'm on my Blackberry, won't get a chance to check 'til later, and am dying to know. Yes...after 5 or 6 PM for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Ralph Not sure if it's excitement but it certainly could be a big problem. Briefly heavy snow high winds and falling temps with the road temps having been above freezing may very well equal quite the mess if someone gets the potential 1 to 2 inches of snow in a short time this evening. Paul I've never seen so much excitement over .01-.1 snow before in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Thanks Tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Ralph Not sure if it's excitement but it certainly could be a big problem. Briefly heavy snow high winds and falling temps with the road temps having been above freezing may very well equal quite the mess if someone gets the potential 1 to 2 inches of snow in a short time this evening. Paul Paul, I agree with you, but there is definitely a whim of excitement in the air in the thread. People are going to be caught somewhat off-guard, though the local news has been on top of this, so maybe not-so-much. Closing in on 2" here fwiw.... Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 What the hell else is there to get excited about in terms of weather? Gotta enjoy anything we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 new nam drops .18 for rd 2 in phl, with higher amts up towards kop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yeah, that was an impressive band that set up (February 3, 2009). Just for kicks, I went back to look up the post mortem I issued on this event the very next day. For those interested in reviewing it, here it is. .POST MORTEM /FOCUSED HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/... WELL, QUITE THE MESOSCALE EVENT UNFOLDED LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WAS WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA, A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SCOOTED ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA. THE COMPUTER MODELS WERE INDICATING THAT A BANDED FEATURE WOULD DEVELOP, HOWEVER THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE TOUGH FOR THE MODELS TO RESOLVE BECAUSE THEY ARE ON THE SMALLER SCALE AND DEPEND ON CERTAIN VARIABLES COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. HOWEVER, THERE WERE SIGNALS THAT THIS COULD OCCUR BUT THE LOCATION WAS UP IN THE AIR. IT TURNS OUT THAT THE FORECAST LOCATION WAS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ON TUESDAY, BUT THE 18Z AND 00Z MODELS BEGAN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THE INTENSE BANDED FEATURE. SO, WHAT CAUSED THIS? THIS IS WHAT IS KNOWN AS A NORLUN INSTABILITY TROUGH. THERE WAS AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE /VIA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ BENEATH MIDLEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THERE WAS A NARROW RIBBON OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER AND THERE WAS INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE MAIN LIFT BECAME ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS CONVERGENCE BECAME MAXIMIZED ALONG THE TROUGH, WHICH LOOKED TO BE PLACED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE SNOW SHIELD CONSOLIDATED INTO A MORE FOCUSED BAND THROUGH THE EVENING AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOT UNDERWAY. A REVIEW OF MODEL DATA VIA BUFKIT, INDICATED THE SNOW GROWTH REGION LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE EVENING WHICH LINED UP WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS, IT APPEARS THE LIFT WAS MAXIMIZED WITHIN A MUCH IMPROVED SNOW GROWTH REGION, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT WAS IN PLACE, SNOWFALL RATES REACHED ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND AS THERE WAS A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION. THIS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATE WAS REPORTED AT THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR A TIME. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLED, THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INCREASED AND PROBABLY MAXED OUT TO ABOUT 20:1. AN INTERESTING OBSERVATION THAT WAS REPORTED AT THE AIRPORT WAS THAT THE VISIBILITY DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT WITH A RUNWAY VISUAL RANGE AS LOW AS 600 FEET. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THESE TYPES OF EVENTS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME. WHEN THEY DO OCCUR, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT BUT IN A RELATIVE NARROW AREA, AS THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LOCALLY INTENSE. THE SETUP THAT OCCURRED TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN, BUT WHEN THEY DO, AREAS UNDERNEATH THE BANDED FEATURE CERTAINLY GET A DUMPING OF SNOW. AS A SIDE NOTE, THE LAST TIME PHILADELPHIA PICKED UP 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW DURING AN EVENT WAS FEBRUARY 11-12, 2006 WHEN 12.0 INCHES OCCURRED. Never forget this event....my gf (now wife) and I had just moved locations within Woodbury after my first couple winters down here were rather meh. As we were moving in she commented that our 6 block move would put us in a more favorable position for snow so I could stop my whining. I laughed bitterly at the time and then rather happily 72 hours later as we jackpotted. As amazing as it was to have all those ingredients come together it was more amazing that they stayed focused over about 4-5 towns here in Gloucester county for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 12z RGEM drops the disturbance right through our region early tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Give the Euro credit on this one (although it had in about 4 different states in 8 runs), taking the leap it will happen, never wavered. Unfortuately I sense several mutli-vehicular accidents later today. Thats a pretty strong statement...do you feel that strongly about the current NAM depiction or just overall concern of the flash freeze potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The average individual is not very weatherwise. I can see many getting caught of guard today thinking the little wet snow thing is done then temps drop quick and a squally 1-2" blows through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yeah, that was an impressive band that set up (February 3, 2009). Just for kicks, I went back to look up the post mortem I issued on this event the very next day. For those interested in reviewing it, here it is. .POST MORTEM /FOCUSED HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/... WELL, QUITE THE MESOSCALE EVENT UNFOLDED LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WAS WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA, A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SCOOTED ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA. THE COMPUTER MODELS WERE INDICATING THAT A BANDED FEATURE WOULD DEVELOP, HOWEVER THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE TOUGH FOR THE MODELS TO RESOLVE BECAUSE THEY ARE ON THE SMALLER SCALE AND DEPEND ON CERTAIN VARIABLES COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. HOWEVER, THERE WERE SIGNALS THAT THIS COULD OCCUR BUT THE LOCATION WAS UP IN THE AIR. IT TURNS OUT THAT THE FORECAST LOCATION WAS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ON TUESDAY, BUT THE 18Z AND 00Z MODELS BEGAN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THE INTENSE BANDED FEATURE. SO, WHAT CAUSED THIS? THIS IS WHAT IS KNOWN AS A NORLUN INSTABILITY TROUGH. THERE WAS AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE /VIA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ BENEATH MIDLEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THERE WAS A NARROW RIBBON OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER AND THERE WAS INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE MAIN LIFT BECAME ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS CONVERGENCE BECAME MAXIMIZED ALONG THE TROUGH, WHICH LOOKED TO BE PLACED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE SNOW SHIELD CONSOLIDATED INTO A MORE FOCUSED BAND THROUGH THE EVENING AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOT UNDERWAY. A REVIEW OF MODEL DATA VIA BUFKIT, INDICATED THE SNOW GROWTH REGION LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE EVENING WHICH LINED UP WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS, IT APPEARS THE LIFT WAS MAXIMIZED WITHIN A MUCH IMPROVED SNOW GROWTH REGION, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT WAS IN PLACE, SNOWFALL RATES REACHED ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND AS THERE WAS A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION. THIS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATE WAS REPORTED AT THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR A TIME. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLED, THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INCREASED AND PROBABLY MAXED OUT TO ABOUT 20:1. AN INTERESTING OBSERVATION THAT WAS REPORTED AT THE AIRPORT WAS THAT THE VISIBILITY DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT WITH A RUNWAY VISUAL RANGE AS LOW AS 600 FEET. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THESE TYPES OF EVENTS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME. WHEN THEY DO OCCUR, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT BUT IN A RELATIVE NARROW AREA, AS THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LOCALLY INTENSE. THE SETUP THAT OCCURRED TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN, BUT WHEN THEY DO, AREAS UNDERNEATH THE BANDED FEATURE CERTAINLY GET A DUMPING OF SNOW. AS A SIDE NOTE, THE LAST TIME PHILADELPHIA PICKED UP 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW DURING AN EVENT WAS FEBRUARY 11-12, 2006 WHEN 12.0 INCHES OCCURRED. Thanks for this, very educational. Any thoughts on what to look for mid-afternoon on where this is setting up, if at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Radar doesnt look all that impressive ths far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Thats a pretty strong statement...do you feel that strongly about the current NAM depiction or just overall concern of the flash freeze potential? Since this has convective elements, the geographic extent of the jackpot area is going to be too large, which plays into the "surprise" element too. Going from nothing to poor visibility and potentially snow covered roads plus those dropping below freezing temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Radar doesnt look all that impressive ths far: it wont til later on around dinner or after that things get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Will this line potentially make it as far north as Berks/Lehigh or is this gonna be blocked by the mts and then be closer to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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