Animal Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 That's just hilarious... i give that guy MetFan serious kudos though for seeking out any hope of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 what does the 15 sref model show for snow exactly. Seems to have nice colors through NE MD-NYC-LI high props of an inch? the 4 inch chart is empty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 what does the 15 sref model show for snow exactly. Seems to have nice colors through NE MD-NYC-LI high props of an inch? the 4 inch chart is empty Basically high probs for an inch, medium for 2 inches and nada for 4 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The ruc is going pretty bullish on the norlun for tomorrow evening much like the wrf nmm model from this afternoon. that is a 1-2 inch per hour band spreading southeast Just a side note the wrf nmm model is the best model for norlun and inverted troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The ruc is going pretty bullish on the norlun for tomorrow evening much like the wrf nmm model from this afternoon. that is a 1-2 inch per hour band spreading southeast Just a side note the wrf nmm model is the best model for norlun and inverted troughs. I was just gonna post something about this. That feature, if their is a wildcard to this event it could be that. If that tracks over the area it could bring a few surprises. Should have some pretty heavy snow bands with it, and good ratios with temperatures crashing with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I was just gonna post something about this. That feature, if their is a wildcard to this event it could be that. If that tracks over the area it could bring a few surprises. Should have some pretty heavy snow bands with it, and good ratios with temperatures crashing with it. Brings back reminders of feb2008 the inverted trough that day ended up being better then the actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Brings back reminders of feb2008 the inverted trough that day ended up being better then the actual storm. I will never forget that storm. I was up at Millersville University sitting in my dorm watching this band set up right over my house. i thought "Okay nice little band will drop an inch or two" and then it just sat there all night intensifying. Called home thinking we got 3-4" wound up with 9". Just unbelievable. We can only hope that type of setup happens tomorrow again! I'll never forget Rob G sitting in his forum calling for a band to explode over the area later that evening. As much crap as he gets, he damn well called that band. Nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Brings back reminders of feb2008 the inverted trough that day ended up being better then the actual storm. you must be thinking of Feb 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 very very light snow here in northeast Philly noting on radar here either. turned to mesoscale data H7 is very juicy and there is a strong jet setting up. could be the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I will never forget that storm. I was up at Millersville University sitting in my dorm watching this band set up right over my house. i thought "Okay nice little band will drop an inch or two" and then it just sat there all night intensifying. Called home thinking we got 3-4" wound up with 9". Just unbelievable. We can only hope that type of setup happens tomorrow again! I'll never forget Rob G sitting in his forum calling for a band to explode over the area later that evening. As much crap as he gets, he damn well called that band. Nailed it. Is that the event where PHL airport got like 8 inches and 10 miles north an inch or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 you must be thinking of Feb 09. That would explain why I could not find radar from that event HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Hope I'm not voted out of the subforum and thrown up into NYC region. only thing worse would be to have to spend the rest of your posting days in the climate change forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 I will never forget that storm. I was up at Millersville University sitting in my dorm watching this band set up right over my house. i thought "Okay nice little band will drop an inch or two" and then it just sat there all night intensifying. Called home thinking we got 3-4" wound up with 9". Just unbelievable. We can only hope that type of setup happens tomorrow again! I'll never forget Rob G sitting in his forum calling for a band to explode over the area later that evening. As much crap as he gets, he damn well called that band. Nailed it. Rob G wasn't the only one to call for it. The NAM was honking that band for about 3 to 4 runs straight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Brings back reminders of feb2009 the inverted trough that day ended up being better then the actual storm. Yeah, that was an impressive band that set up (February 3, 2009). Just for kicks, I went back to look up the post mortem I issued on this event the very next day. For those interested in reviewing it, here it is. .POST MORTEM /FOCUSED HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/... WELL, QUITE THE MESOSCALE EVENT UNFOLDED LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WAS WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA, A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SCOOTED ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA. THE COMPUTER MODELS WERE INDICATING THAT A BANDED FEATURE WOULD DEVELOP, HOWEVER THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE TOUGH FOR THE MODELS TO RESOLVE BECAUSE THEY ARE ON THE SMALLER SCALE AND DEPEND ON CERTAIN VARIABLES COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. HOWEVER, THERE WERE SIGNALS THAT THIS COULD OCCUR BUT THE LOCATION WAS UP IN THE AIR. IT TURNS OUT THAT THE FORECAST LOCATION WAS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ON TUESDAY, BUT THE 18Z AND 00Z MODELS BEGAN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THE INTENSE BANDED FEATURE. SO, WHAT CAUSED THIS? THIS IS WHAT IS KNOWN AS A NORLUN INSTABILITY TROUGH. THERE WAS AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE /VIA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ BENEATH MIDLEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THERE WAS A NARROW RIBBON OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER AND THERE WAS INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE MAIN LIFT BECAME ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS CONVERGENCE BECAME MAXIMIZED ALONG THE TROUGH, WHICH LOOKED TO BE PLACED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE SNOW SHIELD CONSOLIDATED INTO A MORE FOCUSED BAND THROUGH THE EVENING AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOT UNDERWAY. A REVIEW OF MODEL DATA VIA BUFKIT, INDICATED THE SNOW GROWTH REGION LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE EVENING WHICH LINED UP WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS, IT APPEARS THE LIFT WAS MAXIMIZED WITHIN A MUCH IMPROVED SNOW GROWTH REGION, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT WAS IN PLACE, SNOWFALL RATES REACHED ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND AS THERE WAS A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION. THIS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATE WAS REPORTED AT THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR A TIME. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLED, THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INCREASED AND PROBABLY MAXED OUT TO ABOUT 20:1. AN INTERESTING OBSERVATION THAT WAS REPORTED AT THE AIRPORT WAS THAT THE VISIBILITY DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT WITH A RUNWAY VISUAL RANGE AS LOW AS 600 FEET. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THESE TYPES OF EVENTS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME. WHEN THEY DO OCCUR, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT BUT IN A RELATIVE NARROW AREA, AS THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LOCALLY INTENSE. THE SETUP THAT OCCURRED TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN, BUT WHEN THEY DO, AREAS UNDERNEATH THE BANDED FEATURE CERTAINLY GET A DUMPING OF SNOW. AS A SIDE NOTE, THE LAST TIME PHILADELPHIA PICKED UP 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW DURING AN EVENT WAS FEBRUARY 11-12, 2006 WHEN 12.0 INCHES OCCURRED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Very interesting read there. That was a fun day in the world of weather in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 For what it's worth..... 00z Nam blossoms precip. over the area after 3z......shutting the bulk of it down shortly after 12z. Little bullseye close to 0.30" right around Philly by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 For what it's worth..... 00z Nam blossoms precip. over the area after 3z......shutting the bulk of it down shortly after 12z. Little bullseye close to 0.30" right around Philly by 12z. that mainly falls as snow per the NAM on wunderground north/west of the river (changeover line nudges southeast slowly). SV says a couple of inches in the N & W on the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I'm really intrigued by part 2 Saturday night. Interested to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 new nam has slid that norlun feature closer to us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 that mainly falls as snow per the NAM on wunderground north/west of the river (changeover line nudges southeast slowly). SV says a couple of inches in the N & W on the NAM.... yeah, looks like the radar is already showing signs of "filling in" to our southwest, sort of inline with the NAM's composite reflectivity forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Pure Nowcasting now interesting Nam run though for both parts 1 and 2. very interested to see 0z high resolution models later on for round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I think we are in about as good a spot as possible for a small accumulation tonight, then potentially getting clipped again tomorrow night. Beggers can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 new nam sim radar for that norlun like feature...if i had to take a guess as of right now...the lancaster area down to dover looks like the path of this feature, though subject to change, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Getting closer to ChesCo border. As others have said, that's the part that should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 2 short range models on the norlun rsm brings it over the region eta doesnt show much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 new nam sim radar for that norlun like feature...if i had to take a guess as of right now...the lancaster area down to dover looks like the path of this feature, though subject to change, Should be interesting it seems like somebody could get a quick hit but the question is where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Rob G wasn't the only one to call for it. The NAM was honking that band for about 3 to 4 runs straight... That was a true Wiggum Storm!! I rode the NAM plus I was in the jackpot zone :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Radar filling in but the GFS went dry lets see how this continues next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 gfs looking good with inverted trof, brings it over the region. Total qpf for the run pver .25 for se pa southern nj and n del Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 GFS may be anemic but hey it snows for close to 24hrs take what you get in a bad winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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