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Feb 11-12 "Potential"


phlwx

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0z verbatim showed a storm system coming up the coast. Rain along 95, snow west of the city. If you're lucky it ends as snow along 95 in Philadelphia.

Operative word is verbatim...does not account for reality...I'm merely posting what the model says for Saturday. It is "on the table" as a potential storm though and worth threading.

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FWIW, the 12z GFS is going to shoot the 2/11-2/12 event off of Jacksonville and is too far SE of us to do anything except clouds & breeze.

If i had a dollar for every time i heard that and we ended up getting some kind of snow i would be a millionaire. :pimp:

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12z Canadian a nice storm for VA+Delmarva - plenty of potential

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Seeing something seven days out is at least worth keeping an eye. It's been a crappy winter...would be nice if this pans out but if it doesn't, it doesn't.

No need to stress over the details verbatim...but at least if we're going to talk about it I won't model hallucinate...

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post-105-0-21051400-1328463608.gif

Seeing something seven days out is at least worth keeping an eye. It's been a crappy winter...would be nice if this pans out but if it doesn't, it doesn't.

No need to stress over the details verbatim...but at least if we're going to talk about it I won't model hallucinate...

Good post. We should approach this with skepticism but way to early to right it off the table. Reading the forums today it is kind of shocking with certain people saying something 6 days out can't happen or saying this model will be wrong etc. 6 days is a LONG time in regards to weather. Especially lately with the models struggling in the medium range period.

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and the fact that the euro shows nothing of the sort.

Given the EC's putrid performance with this weekend's system, lets just say I'm not gonna put a whole lot of faith into it right now. Its one model of many.

The potential is there, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

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Its a fairly significant change. (resisting urge to poo-poo the fact its 168 on the 18Z GFS SOOOO hard)

Don't you have the NYC forum to troll?!?! :-)

I was strictly speaking verbatim on the run. Whether or not its a trend is a whole other can of worms. Could be worse, could be 172 hrs out!

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12z is too late in the game to develop....Euro does tank us in temps for the weekend though.

I'll believe it when the model shows it 3 days and not 7 days out.

Looks like alot of good and fuzzy feelings about a -14C h8 at PHL on Sunday morning off its ensembles today, then on Monday its another what is going on with the 12z run by it. The uncertainty is pretty dramatic. I suppose the +NAO in this instance is not good for the wavelength, goes without saying no 50/50 low either. Well both the GFS and Euro have a Norlun on it so there's hope for some. MJO is going into phase 8 so that does support a cold shot, we'll see if its as extreme as the 12z euro runs want to make it.

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