phlwx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 0z verbatim showed a storm system coming up the coast. Rain along 95, snow west of the city. If you're lucky it ends as snow along 95 in Philadelphia. Operative word is verbatim...does not account for reality...I'm merely posting what the model says for Saturday. It is "on the table" as a potential storm though and worth threading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Here we go, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 FWIW, the 12z GFS is going to shoot the 2/11-2/12 event off of Jacksonville and is too far SE of us to do anything except clouds & breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Hmm...at least it's still there. For my location, I don't want it coming too far west anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This is one of the few threats we've had for a more significant storm. Wouldn't take much change in the 12z GFS to bring it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 FWIW, the 12z GFS is going to shoot the 2/11-2/12 event off of Jacksonville and is too far SE of us to do anything except clouds & breeze. If i had a dollar for every time i heard that and we ended up getting some kind of snow i would be a millionaire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z Canadian a nice storm for VA+Delmarva - plenty of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z Canadian a nice storm for VA+Delmarva - plenty of potential Seeing something seven days out is at least worth keeping an eye. It's been a crappy winter...would be nice if this pans out but if it doesn't, it doesn't. No need to stress over the details verbatim...but at least if we're going to talk about it I won't model hallucinate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Seeing something seven days out is at least worth keeping an eye. It's been a crappy winter...would be nice if this pans out but if it doesn't, it doesn't. No need to stress over the details verbatim...but at least if we're going to talk about it I won't model hallucinate... Good post. We should approach this with skepticism but way to early to right it off the table. Reading the forums today it is kind of shocking with certain people saying something 6 days out can't happen or saying this model will be wrong etc. 6 days is a LONG time in regards to weather. Especially lately with the models struggling in the medium range period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z GFS ensembles also increasingly bullish on east coast storm potential. Several bring mix/rain to coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Dr. No & Ukie have niente, the former some light snow north and west on Wednesday. I suppose there is a chance vs about 99.4% of this winter where there has been aboslutely no chance at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looking at hr 162 on the GFS, you can see the northern branch is oriented due north to south near the upper mid west compared to the 12z's nw to se look. Good improvement there. (h5 maps) Wish I could post images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looking at hr 162 on the GFS, you can see the northern branch is oriented due north to south near the upper mid west compared to the 12z's nw to se look. Good improvement there. (h5 maps) Wish I could post images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 ^^ gracias! I hope you can all see what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 ^^ gracias! I hope you can all see what I'm talking about. Its a fairly significant change. (resisting urge to poo-poo the fact its 168 on the 18Z GFS SOOOO hard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Its a fairly significant change. (resisting urge to poo-poo the fact its 168 on the 18Z GFS SOOOO hard) and the fact that the euro shows nothing of the sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 and the fact that the euro shows nothing of the sort. The Euro hasn't shown a storm for Saturday since maybe D10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 and the fact that the euro shows nothing of the sort. Given the EC's putrid performance with this weekend's system, lets just say I'm not gonna put a whole lot of faith into it right now. Its one model of many. The potential is there, we'll just have to wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Its a fairly significant change. (resisting urge to poo-poo the fact its 168 on the 18Z GFS SOOOO hard) Don't you have the NYC forum to troll?!?! :-) I was strictly speaking verbatim on the run. Whether or not its a trend is a whole other can of worms. Could be worse, could be 172 hrs out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Don't you have the NYC forum to troll?!?! :-) No one was discussing the threat here. Now I'll come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 00z gfs loses threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 00z gfs loses threat. Old GFS had a much more potent southern stream which rode over the PNA ridge, sank south and was able to turn negatively tilted and get a storm going. New GFS is much weaker so it stays positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Step Toward the euro with the fropa look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 H5 progression would have been sweet past 168 if there was some semblance of a -NAO. Trough axis stays way too positive to induce any cyclogenesis.(verbatim on the 0z euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 need that trough to sharpen up and slow up just a notch and we'll have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 0z euro actually grazes us with some flurries/lgt snow less than .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 need that trough to sharpen up and slow up just a notch and we'll have something. Yeah need more energy to really dive southward into that trof. FWIW the Euro Op and ensembles appear more in sync last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z is too late in the game to develop....Euro does tank us in temps for the weekend though. I'll believe it when the model shows it 3 days and not 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z is too late in the game to develop....Euro does tank us in temps for the weekend though. I'll believe it when the model shows it 3 days and not 7 days out. Looks like alot of good and fuzzy feelings about a -14C h8 at PHL on Sunday morning off its ensembles today, then on Monday its another what is going on with the 12z run by it. The uncertainty is pretty dramatic. I suppose the +NAO in this instance is not good for the wavelength, goes without saying no 50/50 low either. Well both the GFS and Euro have a Norlun on it so there's hope for some. MJO is going into phase 8 so that does support a cold shot, we'll see if its as extreme as the 12z euro runs want to make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 18z GFS ensembles bounced back to the coast a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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