gosaints Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 you're biting hard on the extreme amplification in the mid range. good luck. I wont know how to act if we do see extreme amplification. Buy it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I wont know how to act if we do see extreme amplification. Buy it when I see it. I do. Get in my car and chase! Of course, it is the GFS in Mid-Range...so I'm far from sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 you're biting hard on the extreme amplification in the mid range. good luck. That is probably the first opportunity. I still have 2 weeks of leeway beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Here is once chasers take on chase (severe) season - http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?28675-Chase-Season-2012-a-Look-Ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 A relevant slide from Dr. Greg Forbes' presentation at Chaser Con '12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The Tornado Titans blog is also hinting at the possibility of an active first half of March: http://www.tornadotitans.com/blog/2012/02/18/125-a-way-too-early-look-at-the-beginning-of-march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I would also keep an eye on the ongoing (and in some spots, worsening) drought. Despite MJO progression and typical 2nd-year La Nina climo, between the extreme drought conditions persisting in the Southern Plains (actually, it's worsening in the Desert SW), the warm lake waters and the sheer lack of snowcover and frost ANYWHERE, I highly doubt this Spring and Summer ends up being too cold or inactive severe weather wise. That's not to say there won't be cold shots or snowstorms (and I'm sure there will be), but I think we can pretty much put the final nail in the coffin for the 2011-2012 winter in terms of sustained winter weather after the end of February/beginning of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'm gonna sort of go out on a limb and predict that some area of this forum will have a moderate or high risk before March 15. Based on the recent SPC Day 1, I'm also going to go on a limb and predict that far southern Indiana and far southern Ohio might be upgraded to a low-end moderate risk later today (the recent forecast suggests 10% TOR probablity and 30%/hatched for wind). http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html SPC AC 231238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE U.S. TODAY...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 24/12Z. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER THE OH VALLEY. ...OH VALLEY... THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW OVER KS/OK WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR STRENGTHEN AND BACK. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT 50S DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR IN THIS ZONE...BUT OVERNIGHT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF IND/KY/OH. THIS SHOULD YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN IND AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THAT AREA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 3KM SRH VALUES OF 400-500 M2/S2. VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY LOCALLY AUGMENT VERTICAL SHEAR EVEN MORE. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. STORMS MAY QUICKLY MERGE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL LAST UNTIL AFTER DARK AS STORMS SPREAD INTO WESTERN WV AND SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING. QUESTIONS REGARDING THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND DIABATIC HEATING ARE THE MAIN REASONS A MODERATE RISK WAS NOT INSERTED AT THIS TIME. ...TN VALLEY... FARTHER SOUTH...WIND FIELDS AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TN/MS/AL/GA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE LACKING ACROSS THIS REGION AND THAT A SUBTLE CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA DUE TO HIGH CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK IF ANY STORMS CAN FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING. ..HART/ROGERS.. 02/23/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1358Z (7:58AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm gonna sort of go out on a limb and predict that some area of this forum will have a moderate or high risk before March 15. March 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 March 2? Possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GFS continues to show another sig/multi-day risk next week over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GFS continues to show another sig/multi-day risk next week over a large area. This weekend already looks bad...but wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro is absolutely nuts with the system Chicago mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro is absolutely nuts with the system Chicago mentioned. Severe from Canada to Texas if that verifies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Severe from Canada to Texas if that verifies? Yeah pretty much...and then over the same areas that are likely to be affected by this week's storms. CMC also goes nuts with it. I see JoMo lurking...I can't imagine he is liking what he is seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Perfect configurations for a early seasonal outbreak. Finally something exciting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looong way out and of course could change significantly but I can't believe that warm sector on the system around 9-10 days. Euro has 50-55 degree dewpoints into northern Michigan which would be quite a feat for early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Not calling for the apocalypse but I'm getting uneasy about Friday. I guess we will know more in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Not calling for the apocalypse but I'm getting uneasy about Friday. I guess we will know more in a couple days. Same. Things are coming together more and more especially further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Needless to say, that uneasiness was justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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