Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 18z Nam has the precip staying just below NYC. Looks like a moderate batch of precip gets into central and southern Jersey. take a roadtrip to ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 18z Nam has the precip staying just below NYC. Looks like a moderate batch of precip gets into central and southern Jersey. SREF's have conrinued to nudge south as well. Not a lot but enough when your are on the fringe. Not even flurries for me on these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 seems like the SREF's have been off their game lately so I wouldn't necessarily use them as justification of getting nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 seems like the SREF's have been off their game lately so I wouldn't necessarily use them as justification of getting nothing. I'll use this winter as a justification for getting nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Little or no precipitation through early next week according to Upton and only normal temps After that back to normal to above normal temps.. Good chance we end February with less then an inch of snow and much above normal temps....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Little or no precipitation through early next week according to Upton and only normal temps After that back to normal to above normal temps.. Good chance we end February with less then an inch of snow and much above normal temps....... Much to early to say that definitively. It does look bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Much to early to say that definitively. It does look bad though. I didn't say definitely I said "good chance" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 SREF's have conrinued to nudge south as well. Not a lot but enough when your are on the fringe. Not even flurries for me on these runs. Disagree. It looks like they are slightly south for NE PA, but are further north with the precipitation for LI. They are also north of where the southern extent of the precipitation was in VA on the 09z SREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Much to early to say that definitively. It does look bad though. Way, way too early to be negative like that. Seems people are going model run to model run for the long range, when they've been changeble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Little or no precipitation through early next week according to Upton and only normal temps After that back to normal to above normal temps.. Good chance we end February with less then an inch of snow and much above normal temps....... This isnt the thread for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 There's no chance we end up below normal temperature wise and I'd say very low chance its not at least +3 again. Obviously it only takes one good snowstorm to put us above average however. Way, way too early to be negative like that. Seems people are going model run to model run for the long range, when they've been changeble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i took zero snow for Feb and was ridiculed. I'm 1/4 of the way there and the next week looks bleak....I think NYC is also +7 to date temp wise for the month....going to be a challenge to knock that even close to zero.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i took zero snow for Feb and was ridiculed. I'm 1/4 of the way there and the next week looks bleak....I think NYC is also +7 to date temp wise for the month....going to be a challenge to knock that even close to zero.... Not that bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Little or no precipitation through early next week according to Upton and only normal temps After that back to normal to above normal temps.. Good chance we end February with less then an inch of snow and much above normal temps....... Did you read uptons afd? What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i took zero snow for Feb and was ridiculed. I'm 1/4 of the way there and the next week looks bleak....I think NYC is also +7 to date temp wise for the month....going to be a challenge to knock that even close to zero.... At the very least we should end up with a trace. There's scattered snow showers likely tomorrow with maybe a dusting should the northern scenario verify, with more scattered rain/snow showers possible for Saturday. The temperature anomaly will moderate with the below average temperatures during the weekend, but even so this month will still most likely be warmer than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 After this weekend the pattern begins to collapse - better then 50 % chance we end February with much above average temps -more then 5 degrees - and 0 snowfall .. Good chance we end February with less then an inch of snow Like they use to say on The Jeffersons, "We're a movin' on up." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Like they use to say on The Jeffersons, "We're a movin' on up." That was a great show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 So any surprises possible tomorrow? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 So any surprises possible tomorrow? Anyone? yeah variable clouds low - mid 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 You guys are joking right? This weekend (although it wont likely turn out to be more than snow showers from the arctic front) has a threat, then next week with the MJO in phase 8-1 has a threat Tues-Thurs in arguably the best set up all year. Models have been blah with it but they havent been good past hour 6 lately with so many shortwaves and cut off low. There should be hope for the next 10 days. On a separate note, I think coatings from tomorrow evening is all we can hope for. Radar will look good to the S/W but the combo of very dry air here (dews single digits to 10) and the energy transfering to the coastal low will make the old NJ/NY screw. I think nothing more than SN shwrs as the vort swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 i took zero snow for Feb and was ridiculed. I'm 1/4 of the way there and the next week looks bleak....I think NYC is also +7 to date temp wise for the month....going to be a challenge to knock that even close to zero.... That's absolutely ridiculous. Your zero snow is going down the drawn a day from now. February will be above normal but those warm readings now for the month will get knocked down as the month progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 That's absolutely ridiculous. Your zero snow is going down the drawn a day from now. February will be above normal but those warm readings now for the month will get knocked down as the month progresses. Just kinda FYI, generally in this winter it isn't wise to discuss snow as a certainty until it is actually falling from the sky. Again, just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro is more north than the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 All things considered; looks pretty discouraging for the Wednesday "event"....would expect about 1/10 to 1/2 an inch of snow across NYC and Long Island...and that might be pushing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 All things considered; looks pretty discouraging for the Wednesday "event"....would expect about 1/10 to 1/2 an inch of snow across NYC and Long Island...and that might be pushing it... Nmm,arw and nam are impressive at all. I think it will snow but not accumulate on paved surfaces. It will most likely accumulate on grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Nmm,arw and nam are impressive at all. I think it will snow but not accumulate on paved surfaces. It will most likely accumulate on grassy areas. Anthony, when the NAM is dry...as it is here...it is the ultimate red flag...the NAM, with its mesoscale features...say what you will about it...tends to pick up things the globals don't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Anthony, when the NAM is dry...as it is here...it is the ultimate red flag...the NAM, with its mesoscale features...say what you will about it...tends to pick up things the globals don't... I guess we have to see tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I guess we have to see tomorrow. One thing the NAM seems to excel at is determining how far precip will extend when approaching high pressure / dry air...you could have 10 models saying the precip will get in to a certain locale..but if the NAM is the one that says it won't.....I'd weigh the NAM forecast *equally* up against the dissenting ten... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 One thing the NAM seems to excel at is determining how far precip will extend when approaching high pressure / dry air...you could have 10 models saying the precip will get in to a certain locale..but if the NAM is the one that says it won't.....I'd weigh the NAM forecast *equally* up against the dissenting ten... So true. The GFS is famous for bringing qpf into a sfc ridge and is often wrong. The higher res NAM usually owns in that situation. Elsewhere? Maybe not. It's all about knowing how to use a model with its strengths and weaknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 So true. The GFS is famous for bringing qpf into a sfc ridge and is often wrong. The higher res NAM usually owns in that situation. Elsewhere? Maybe not. It's all about knowing how to use a model with its strengths and weaknesses. 2/5/10 is the best example. the NAM though can have overly rigid cutoffs in scenarios where there is no cold anticyclone to the north, this is where the NAM is often wrong, The GFS though is God when compared to the NGM in bringing precipitation into ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.