MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Upton Models have trended northward with precipitation shield with thissystem...so have increased probability of precipitation to chance Wednesday night. With limited moisture to work with...liquid equivalent amounts will be light. With precipitation falling at night...and low level thermal profiles in all models supporting all snow...went with chance of light snow throughout the area. For lows blended fairly similar mav/met guidance. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GFS is slightly wetter and colder than the Nam http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F06%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=057&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GFS is slightly wetter and colder than the Nam http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M LOL-that's .05 of precip with marginal temps--won't stick to anything and it's 45 and sunny the next day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 LOL-that's .05 of precip with marginal temps--won't stick to anything and it's 45 and sunny the next day.... Who cares. Be happy to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z nam shifted the shield south by a good bit. Northern fringe was in N. Mass at 12Z, LI sound at 18Z. Looks more like the 12Z Euro. But it is all splitting hairs anyway. LGA went from .06 to .02. White Plains from .06 to .01. Literally looking at differences of hundreths on the models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z nam shifted the shield south by a good bit. Northern fringe was in N. Mass at 12Z, LI sound at 18Z. Looks more like the 12Z Euro. But it is all splitting hairs anyway. LGA went from .06 to .02. White Plains from .06 to .01. Literally looking at differences of hundreths on the models at this point. GFS is north while the Nam is south lol. The 700 RH field is alright on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Just when we finally have a chance for light snow the models once again keep the best of it to our south... the Mid Atlantic had something like 4 small snow events this winter and we haven't had any yet. Regardless of these other storms, this one looks good for at least some light snow showers on Wednesday afternoon and evening, which in the best case scenario could perhaps accumulate up to 1/2 or 1 inch if more QPF than modeled falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Just when we finally have a chance for light snow the models once again keep the best of it to our south... the Mid Atlantic had something like 4 small snow events this winter and we haven't had any yet. Impressive 2011-12 seasonal totals (through today) continue to be racked up to our south, causing New York snow fans to turn green with envy... Wilmington, DE: 2.9" Philadelphia: 2.8" Atlantic City: 2.3" Washington D.C. (Dulles): 2.3" Washington D.C. (National): 1.7" Baltimore (BWI): 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Just when we finally have a chance for light snow the models once again keep the best of it to our south... the Mid Atlantic had something like 4 small snow events this winter and we haven't had any yet. Impressive 2011-12 seasonal totals (through today) continue to be racked up to our south, causing New York snow fans to turn green with envy... Wilmington, DE: 2.9" Philadelphia: 2.8" Atlantic City: 2.3" Washington D.C. (Dulles): 2.3" Washington D.C. (National): 1.7" Baltimore (BWI): 1.3" They must have been *really* small... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Hey Earthlight, how am I doing in my unofficial capacity as the forum's ace bs detector? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Impressive 2011-12 seasonal totals (through today) continue to be racked up to our south, causing New York snow fans to turn green with envy... Wilmington, DE: 2.9" Philadelphia: 2.8" Atlantic City: 2.3" Washington D.C. (Dulles): 2.3" Washington D.C. (National): 1.7" Baltimore (BWI): 1.3" +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 +1 You know me Tim...call it like I see it...way too old for pretense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Just when we finally have a chance for light snow the models once again keep the best of it to our south... the Mid Atlantic had something like 4 small snow events this winter and we haven't had any yet. Regardless of these other storms, this one looks good for at least some light snow showers on Wednesday afternoon and evening, which in the best case scenario could perhaps accumulate up to 1/2 or 1 inch if more QPF than modeled falls. Yeah, 4 events of 0.5" each. I would never envy those to the south of the dreaded 40N line...I'm much too elitist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 You know me Tim...call it like I see it...way too old for pretense... You're never too young to install that BS detector. I had surgery for mine a few years ago and have been a different man ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 You're never too young to install that BS detector. I had surgery for mine a few years ago and have been a different man ever since. Just combed the meteorology / theology commentary on your blog...interesting read! And those Jersey snow maps are top notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 They must have been *really* small... They each were at least 1/2 inch snow events, some of them 1-2 inch, but at least they got to see snow accumulate more than twice since October. We just had the Jan 21 storm, a dusting before that, and otherwise isolated flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Just combed the meteorology / theology commentary on your blog...interesting read! And those Jersey snow maps are top notch. Thanks William, means a lot coming from you. Re the snow maps, some of those took quite awhile to draw up, but this year's may be a 10-15 minute one like 2007-08, if we continue on the same path for the next couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Thanks William, means a lot coming from you. Re the snow maps, some of those took quite awhile to draw up, but this year's may be a 10-15 minute one like 2007-08, if we continue on the same path for the next couple months. Speaking of 07-08, was just thinking the other day how that winter would feel bitterly cold compared to this one. I definitely recall a handful of very cold days in 07-08. I think my lowest temp was 9 that winter, with a day in January at 18-19 for a high temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Speaking of 07-08, was just thinking the other day how that winter would feel bitterly cold compared to this one. I definitely recall a handful of very cold days in 07-08. I think my lowest temp was 9 that winter, with a day in January at 18-19 for a high temp. First week into Feb and most sites running near 10 above normal. I dont remember Jan 08 being that cold? You must be thinking of Jan 2009 (1/16-17) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 First week into Feb and most sites running near 10 above normal. I dont remember Jan 08 being that cold? You must be thinking of Jan 2009 (1/16-17) Yeah Jan 08 was a torch, but the winter as a whole, DJF, finished about +1.7 in NYC. This winter will probably finish +3 minimum (if feb is near normal). So probably double 07-08's positive departure. Just checked, Jan 3rd 2008 was a 20/12 day in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yeah Jan 08 was a torch, but the winter as a whole, DJF, finished about +1.7 in NYC. This winter will probably finish +3 minimum (if feb is near normal). So probably double 07-08's positive departure. Just checked, Jan 3rd 2008 was a 20/12 day in NYC. Looks like NYC's coldest high temp so far this winter is an unimpressive 27F. If some modelling is correct, we'll beat that Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 RSM has about .10 for the NYC area on Wednesday http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 RSM has about .10 for the NYC area on Wednesday http://www.meteo.psu...0z/rsmloop.html It has the .22 inches of QPF max right over my location in C NJ. Of course, this is probably bound to change in its next run, and it is probably overdoing the precipitation like the RSM likes to do right before a snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Here are the 18Z RGEM big snow totals for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Ridiculous... Maryland gets 0.25" QPF with most of, if not all of it as snow, and we get a couple of flakes. Our best hope is for a north trend or for a closer/somewhat stronger storm pnce it reaches the coast, otherwise the best snow could miss us to the south once again leaving us with just some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Ridiculous... Maryland gets 0.25" QPF with most of, if not all of it as snow, and we get a couple of flakes. Our best hope is for a north trend or for a closer/somewhat stronger storm pnce it reaches the coast, otherwise the best snow could miss us to the south once again leaving us with just some snow showers. Not as ridiculous as February 6 2010 with them getting 30", while we saw zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The Nam has been south with this event while the gfs has been north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Not as ridiculous as February 6 2010 with them getting 30", while we saw zip. You guys cashed in time after time last winter while we got squat except our one big 14" storm. We may get 1-3" on Wed but as a snow lover i would much rather live in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 You guys cashed in time after time last winter while we got squat except our one big 14" storm. We may get 1-3" on Wed but as a snow lover i would much rather live in your area. To be honest, I rather experienced Feb 1-10, 2010 in Manchester MD, than anything else... 30" and 30". over 5 feet on the ground!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Eureka! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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