Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Still The only time period with measurable is between 72 and 78 hours. The front edge is a ways to the SW at 72 and the back edge is a bit NE already at 78. That's definitely less than 6 hours. I don't want to spam this whole thread up with link after link of the GFS, but I guess I have to in order to prove my claim. Here is hour 75, note that the precipitation hasn't reached NYC yet, http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Here is hour 78, as you can see, precipitation is all across the area, meaning that the precipitation arrived somewhere between 75-78 hours. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Here is hour 81, precipitation is still falling: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Here is hour 84, precipitation is just about to end in NYC: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M That's ~ 8-10 hours. 10 hours if the precipitation starts a little after 75 and ends a bit after the 84 hour frame, and less if it ends a bit earlier than the 84 hour frame, and starts a little bit later than the 75 hour timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This is really like putting snowflakes under a microscope not that there's hardly any chance of seeing anything on the ground. WX/PT Flakes in the air will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 You are misreading the progs. Those maps depict QPF in the previous 6 hours. That means that the 84 hour map shows that the precip ended approximately 6 hours earlier. I don't want to spam this whole thread up with link after link of the GFS, but I guess I have to in order to prove my claim. Here is hour 75, note that the precipitation hasn't reached NYC yet, http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Here is hour 78, as you can see, precipitation is all across the area, meaning that the precipitation arrived somewhere between 75-78 hours. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Here is hour 81, precipitation is still falling: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Here is hour 84, precipitation is just about to end in NYC: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M That's ~ 8-10 hours. 10 hours if the precipitation starts a little after 75 and ends a bit after the 84 hour frame, and less if it ends a bit earlier than the 84 hour frame, and starts a little bit later than the 75 hour timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Those maps depict QPF in the previous 6 hours. That means that the 84 hour map shows that the precip ended approximately 6 hours earlier. The maps I posted are three hour QPF maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The maps I posted are three hour QPF maps. I'm afraid not. Scroll down to the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'm afraid not. Scroll down to the bottom. Whoops, sorry, you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Does anyone else agree that the EURO and GFS might be under-doing the precip amounts Wednesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 HM from this board mentioned the possibility of this wave trending stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 HM from this board mentioned the possibility of this wave trending stronger. The topic's title evaporated on the 6 o'clock in the evening NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 0Z NAM doesn't look half bad, especially SW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 0Z NAM doesn't look half bad, especially SW of NYC. Not at all. I think this might be the only event in the next week or so. You think it could trend a little stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Not at all. I think this might be the only event in the next week or so. You think it could trend a little stronger? Its always possible, though the NAM seems to be one of the more vigorous solutions right now, so I certainly wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Its always possible, though the NAM seems to be one of the more vigorous solutions right now, so I certainly wouldn't bet on it. At this point I will take an inch and consider it an accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Its always possible, though the NAM seems to be one of the more vigorous solutions right now, so I certainly wouldn't bet on it. The storm is still 60+ hours out, which isn't a very good time range for the NAM. This definitely needs to be watched though as we finally have a somewhat better chance of seeing at least some light snow with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The storm is still 60+ hours out, which isn't a very good time range for the NAM. This definitely needs to be watched though as we finally have a somewhat better chance of seeing at least some light snow with this storm. you call that a storm? More like a disturbance - minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 you call that a storm? More like a disturbance - minor In this winter, anything that drops more than 0.1" of frozen pcpn is a storm. Sad but true. The past couple winters, a 1" threat would probably get very little if any talk; this winter, it's the main talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The models have been off and on with thius tiny snow event so there is a chance. I think that this weekend has a better chance, but that storm is also iffy st this point. Climatology is on the side of a storm, this winter pattern is not. Thre will be an excenent baroclinic zone set up along the coast. So lets what the next few runs of the models predict' I will be able to have a better idea on whats going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The models have been off and on with thius tiny snow event so there is a chance. I think that this weekend has a better chance, but that storm is also iffy st this point. Climatology is on the side of a storm, this winter pattern is not. Thre will be an excenent baroclinic zone set up along the coast. So lets what the next few runs of the models predict' I will be able to have a better idea on whats going to happen. Ok cue the 'baroclinic_instability' guy from the Plains.... It's been a while. Last time he was here we had a blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Light event is there on the GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F06%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=069&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GGEM also shows a light event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It would have to come through at night to have any chance. Unfortunately it's progged to come through during the daylight hours Wednesday. Light wet snow with temps well above freezing Wednesday afternoon wouldn't have any chance of accumulating. This doesn't look interesting at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It would have to come through at night to have any chance. Unfortunately it's progged to come through during the daylight hours Wednesday. Light wet snow with temps well above freezing Wednesday afternoon wouldn't have any chance of accumulating. This doesn't look interesting at all. Any snow would be a gift right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Any snow would be a gift right now I know some look at it that way. But flurries or non accumulating snow do nothing for me. I have to see it accumulating on the ground to get excited. This one doesn't have a shot, unless the timing changes to night when it's colder. Too warm during the daytime Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It would have to come through at night to have any chance. Unfortunately it's progged to come through during the daylight hours Wednesday. Light wet snow with temps well above freezing Wednesday afternoon wouldn't have any chance of accumulating. This doesn't look interesting at all. Its 32/22 on the GFS soundings for JFK at 15Z with a thick overcast already evident from 14,000 feet upward by 06-09Z or so, we'd easily see snow from this, may not be the best accumulation on roads given the higher late season sun angle we're now headed towards though. This is an event I'd be very excited about being a possible 2-5 inch event if we had a retreating high to the north and more intense mid-level warm advection but we don't have that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Nam now shows light snow for area!!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well if anything, we would at least record a trace of snow for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Nam now shows light snow for area!!! Rossi 0Z looked much better. This run is drier and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Nam now shows light snow for area!!! Rossi Yes but Alan Kasper doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GFS and GGEM show the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GGEM for Wednesday http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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