Snow_Miser Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Note: This is a totally different storm than the larger potential on the 10th-12th. The 00z ECMWF showed a weak SWFE impacting the region for around a 6 hour period. It's not a really big deal, only about 0.2 inches of QPF falls in the NYC area with this storm. It does manage to pop a coastal on the 00z ECMWF which throws back more QPF for the eastern sections of the area, but it is probably too warm at the surface for these areas, such as eastern LI to see any form of accumulating snow. For the NYC area and C NJ north, temperatures are in the mid thirties for the duration that it is precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 The 00z GGEM also has this weak system on the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, and gives the area around 0.1-0.2 inches of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 GFS also shows this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 anyone ever consider this is this is going to be the main threat in the mid range and the feb 10 -12 period is going to be just cold and dry after this storm on the 9th passes ? Looks that way on the models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 anyone ever consider this is this is going to be the main threat in the mid range and the feb 10 -12 period is going to be just cold and dry after this storm on the 9th passes ? Looks that way on the models.... Yup pv cant properly position for that storm looks like. I know its next weekend but doesnt look too good already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yup pv cant properly position for that storm looks like. I know its next weekend but doesnt look too good already Your statement asserts that changes can only move in a negative direction, which is simply not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 anyone ever consider this is this is going to be the main threat in the mid range and the feb 10 -12 period is going to be just cold and dry after this storm on the 9th passes ? Looks that way on the models.... I hope this doesn't becoeme the main threat. Because it's coming when cold air is just arriving. Which often don't work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Although as modelled now , this comes before any deep cold air arrives and when there is 10m southerly flow. This the GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Your statement asserts that changes can only move in a negative direction, which is simply not true. Ok wasnt the best structured statement im an amatuer trying to learn sundog sorry if it didnt make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Although as modelled now , this comes before any deep cold air arrives and when there is 10m southerly flow. This the GGEM: It looks nice on the models from a quick glance, but the temperatures are not too supportive for this event, with at least the Wunderground ECM maps not showing any snow in NYC with surface temperatures above freezing, and the CMC which you pointed out also showing a warmer scenario. This could very well produce some light snow, but this isn't a definite snow forecast, as temperatures are really marginal for this event and should it verify, perhaps it could be more of a rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 GFS, GGEM and EC have all backed off on this system. GGEM has nothing, GFS and EC are much drier/weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Euro ensembles have a low near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 18z GFS has a little precip in our area. Take a look at the RH field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looks like a clipper on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The positioning of the high is not good, this is a case where you want the high centered over Quebec or New England, not over the Lakes, this event would have very good overrunning potential otherwise, thats a relatively strong 500mb wave at 84-96 hours on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 You guys are slackers The 00z ECMWF did show some light snow moving through the area with this system. The ECMWF clown maps show about an inch in C NJ and a little less into NYC, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 6z GFS also shows some precip in this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z Nam has some precip in the area for Wednesday http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z Nam has some precip in the area for Wednesday http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M considering the temps surface and aloft its a light wet snow in NYC that doesn't accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z GFS shows some light precip for DC- NYC on Wednesday- Thursday. Looks cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z GFS shows some light precip for DC- NYC on Wednesday- Thursday. Looks cold enough for snow. Surface temps warm rapidly from near freezing at 72 to low 40s at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Surface temps warm rapidly from near freezing at 72 to low 40s at 78. Yep. 850's are cold though. Looks like non accumulating snow. I will take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yep. 850's are cold though. Looks like non accumulating snow. I will take that. Since it does start out near freezing I wouldn't rule out a small accumulation, but it'd be gone almost as soon as it fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z GFS shows some light precip for DC- NYC on Wednesday- Thursday. Looks cold enough for snow. The 12z GFS shows light snow for about 10 hours. I would gladly take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The 12z GFS shows light snow for about 10 hours. I would gladly take that. Looks like less than 6 to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looks like less than 6 to me... is that minutes or hours ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looks like less than 6 to me... It looks like Precipitation starts to move in between 75 and 78 hours, and it is just ending at hour 84-85. It's a rough estimate, but I would estimate that is an 8-10 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It looks like Precipitation starts to move in between 75 and 78 hours, and it is just ending at hour 84-85. It's a rough estimate, but I would estimate that is an 8-10 hour event. Still The only time period with measurable is between 72 and 78 hours. The front edge is a ways to the SW at 72 and the back edge is a bit NE already at 78. That's definitely less than 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This is really like putting snowflakes under a microscope not that there's hardly any chance of seeing anything on the ground. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This is really like putting snowflakes under a microscope not that there's hardly any chance of seeing anything on the ground. WX/PT They are desperate this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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