Light snow threat (forecast, not OBS) Wednesday/Thursday (Feb 8-9 2012)

[phlwx]

people say the same thing every winter (maybe not 09-10, but almost every winter). the fact of the matter is there arent all that many snow events in this region, and people are interested in this type of event almost every year.

To me, it's a glorified flizzard (we do get a few of those each year...even this winter we've had a couple). I guess that's why I don't find them interesting.

Since 1884-85's winter we've had 1749 days with at least 0.1" of snow...an average of 13.8 days per winter. Those can include multi-day events but if you account for a couple of those per winter we see snow about ten times a winter. Some winters more...others less...but 10 is still 10 when you average it all together.

By year since 2000-01:

00-01: 13

01-02: 2

02-03: 21

03-04: 16

04-05: 17

05-06: 10

06-07: 15 (yeah, believe it or not we had .1 or more 15 times...all after 1/15)

07-08: 5

08-09: 12

09-10: 15

10-11: 16

If we were in VA or in NC I could see how this would be interesting...I guess I have a different (higher totals) standard of what's interesting.

If it were advisory criteria that might work.

[GD0815]

i guess part of this is also what you expect to happen, i think we get between 1 and 2 inches, im guessing that would cut most of those numbers by 2/3rd....we'll see I guess.

[chubbs]

Not much change in 00z models so far. 1-2" on grass looks possible particularly in W suburbs.

[famartin]

Not much change in 00z models so far. 1-2" on grass looks possible particularly in W suburbs.

Yeah, definitely looks like a Berks/Montgomery/Chester special, based on the NAM anyway...

[Parsley]

Yeah, definitely looks like a Berks/Montgomery/Chester special, based on the NAM anyway...

I'll have the feather duster ready!!!

[Voyager]

Really gotta believe they're cahoots with the auto industry. Never seen such deterioration of car

components since they've been putting down this brine crap. I've had power steering lines, tranny lines, differential covers, bolts simply disintegrate. How did we ever survive without it?

Our mechanic attributed the floorboard rotting out on my wife's car to that crap.

[phlwx]

I'll have the feather duster ready!!!

Mt. Trappe will have the plow out.

[SP]

Our mechanic attributed the floorboard rotting out on my wife's car to that crap.

IMO this crap has cost me about 30-40k in the fleet thus far......

brake lines are very common

[Quakertown needs snow]

^{it feels like .3" of snow this am}

[chubbs]

06z models continue trend of slowly increasing qpf. Some 0.25 contour showing up west of phl. 1-3 or 2-3 on grass looks good in western suburbs.

[fsu_wxgirl]

I'm leaning to the lighter side of total snowfall accumulation. An inch at most in the grassy surfaces in Chester County with maybe some slightly higher amounts in Western Chester County. I think 2-3 is a little high. You will have to go towards Central/Western PA or even West Virginia to see that much.

[ChescoWx]

Current Wxsim has also slightly increased amounts with a general 2" now expected - start time by 330p with moderate snow right around rush hour tapering off by 9pm

Temps are forecasted to reach almost 40 but fall back below freezing during late rush hour. Kind of have my doubts temps get much above 36 out here today with clouds already in the area and a steady North wind drilling in some cold air. I think it could be a messy rush this PM

[JCT777]

I'm leaning to the lighter side of total snowfall accumulation. An inch at most in the grassy surfaces in Chester County with maybe some slightly higher amounts in Western Chester County. I think 2-3 is a little high. You will have to go towards Central/Western PA or even West Virginia to see that much.

I agree, mostly based on temps and snowfall intensity. If temps would be below freezing throughout the event, or if this was a quick burst of heavy snow...then I'd think 2" to maybe 3" of snow would be possible. Since temps will be above freezing for a while at the start of the event, and precip rates don't look to be heavy enough to overcome the temp issue while above freezing, I'll say most places get 1" or less.

[mattinpa]

This winter, this threat could have its own obs thread. I still think precip could be heavy enough over a short time for over 1" at least on grassy surfaces.

[hazwoper]

Based on a review of PennDot traffic cams, there doesn't appear to be much virga, if any. Already a nice coating in Gettysburg area.

[famartin]

Obs thread:

[LVblizzard]

35F with a DP of 22 in Allentown.

[daxx]

Snow just started to fall here. I would be happy with a half inch to an inch of snow out of this.