Light snow threat (forecast, not OBS) Wednesday/Thursday (Feb 8-9 2012)

[famartin]

All models now showing it. Doesn't look too strong but could be 1-3 inches for some areas especially NW of I-95 (BL temps may be an issue near and SE of I-95).

[phlwx]

hopefully it remains weak so it doesn't become a bl issue for all.

BTW, thanks Ray for all the info on the 2/5/01 storm. I linked you and "borrowed" a radar graphic (cited you, of course) for an article I ran on it for the site.

[famartin]

  On 2/4/2012 at 12:42 PM, phlwx said:

hopefully it remains weak so it doesn't become a bl issue for all.

BTW, thanks Ray for all the info on the 2/5/01 storm. I linked you and "borrowed" a radar graphic (cited you, of course) for an article I ran on it for the site.

[famartin]

Well... the GGEM completely gave up on this system. The GFS and EC are much drier but still have a ghost of it.

[tombo82685]

  On 2/4/2012 at 6:43 PM, famartin said:

Well... the GGEM completely gave up on this system. The GFS and EC are much drier but still have a ghost of it.

euro has it, but looks like bl issues for se pa...

[famartin]

  On 2/4/2012 at 6:45 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro has it, but looks like bl issues for se pa...

It has it, yes, but as I said, its backed off on QPF significantly... 0Z had over a tenth, new run has less than half that.

[chubbs]

Hanging in there on most models. Light qpf and marginal temps

[Animal]

  On 2/5/2012 at 3:22 PM, chubbs said:

Hanging in there on most models. Light qpf and marginal temps

another non-event is possible...grasping at anything these days

The much hyped February pattern is going up in smoke

[tombo82685]

  On 2/5/2012 at 3:48 PM, Darkstar said:

another non-event is possible...grasping at anything these days

The much hyped winter is going up in smoke

fixed

[famartin]

0Z NAM looks decent for an inch or two of snow along I-95 on Wednesday. Temps stay near freezing with over .1" QPF.

[Snowtrain]

  On 2/6/2012 at 2:49 AM, famartin said:

0Z NAM looks decent for an inch or two of snow along I-95 on Wednesday. Temps stay near freezing with over .1" QPF.

Broom worthy snow!!" Ill take it!"

[phlwx]

  On 2/6/2012 at 2:49 AM, famartin said:

0Z NAM looks decent for an inch or two of snow along I-95 on Wednesday. Temps stay near freezing with over .1" QPF.

Euro agrees with this (in general) but is slower in timing...more Wednesday evening.

[tombo82685]

i don't have the exact qpf, but euro has .1-.25 for this.

[Quakertown needs snow]

12z nam and gfs on board for something falling.

[famartin]

  On 2/6/2012 at 4:13 PM, Quakertown needs snow said:

12z nam and gfs on board for something falling.

NAM was a bit too warm in the BL... maybe wet snow or rain/snow mix. Haven't seen the GFS sfc temps yet.

[tombo82685]

  On 2/6/2012 at 5:11 PM, famartin said:

NAM was a bit too warm in the BL... maybe wet snow or rain/snow mix. Haven't seen the GFS sfc temps yet.

hr 60 for phl...looks like an inch on gfs

[tombo82685]

looks like 12z ggem is around a tenth of qpf also for wed night thurs system.

[tombo82685]

12z euro still going with .1-.25 qpf from about the dyl to rdg line south...looks col enough for all snow from city and jersey burbsv north and west

[MGorse]

  On 2/6/2012 at 6:10 PM, tombo82685 said:

12z euro still going with .1-.25 qpf from about the dyl to rdg line south...looks col enough for all snow from city and jersey burbsv north and west

This looks like a ripping snow event.

[famartin]

  On 2/6/2012 at 6:28 PM, MGorse said:

This looks like a ripping snow event.

Didn't you read the thread title?

[MGorse]

  On 2/6/2012 at 6:33 PM, famartin said:

Didn't you read the thread title?

Of course I did.

[mattinpa]

  On 2/6/2012 at 6:10 PM, tombo82685 said:

12z euro still going with .1-.25 qpf from about the dyl to rdg line south...looks col enough for all snow from city and jersey burbsv north and west

Thanks, Tom. I will take what the Euro shows.

[famartin]

  On 2/6/2012 at 6:36 PM, MGorse said:

Of course I did.

Just checking, my "ripping snow"-loving friend

[tombo82685]

18z gfs indiv ens tot precip continue to show the threat of and inch or two of snow for the region

[tombo82685]

nam going with .1-.25 from phl county up the northeast ext and west on 78 and all pts west and south.m Looks like potential for an inch or two out of this is building.

[Isotherm]

  On 2/7/2012 at 2:36 AM, tombo82685 said:

nam going with .1-.25 from phl county up the northeast ext and west on 78 and all pts west and south.m Looks like potential for an inch or two out of this is building.

Skew T's look favorable as well. Surface temps at or below freezing even down to KPHL during the height of pcpn. Fairly low dew point airmass, so evap cooling should get temps down near wet bulbs pretty rapidly.

[chubbs]

GFS also looks like 1-2" similar to NAM. A little more than previous runs.

[LVblizzard]

These types of events tend to overperform in localized areas. I wouldn't be surprised if someone in Chester or Lancaster counties got over 2" of snow.

[phlwx]

I'll call general 1-2 north/west of 295, almost all of it on grassy surfaces. Mt. Trappe coaxes 4" somehow while Parsley gets half of that.

[Parsley]

  On 2/7/2012 at 9:08 AM, phlwx said:

I'll call general 1-2 north/west of 295, almost all of it on grassy surfaces. Mt. Trappe coaxes 4" somehow while Parsley gets half of that.

Mt. Trappe never reported on the last snowfall event. Maybe the spotter got the

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Very nice agreement on the models at this point.