Ellinwood Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I will be posting the precip. forecast tomorrow... Here's the summer composite: Temperatures are close to -1F along the West Coast. The monthly breakdown: Forecasts are based on the 1981-2010 normals. METHODOLOGY: I grabbed some rough ENSO analogs this year that featured a La Niña winter with warm temperature anomalies in the U.S. and southern Canada. These analogs show a weakening Niña going into the summer months, which is the general consensus between the long-range models. I made adjustments to the temperature forecast based on current the soil moisture and forecast precipitation (summer precip. map getting released tomorrow), and that's pretty much it. Keeping it simple this summer. ANALOGS: in [year (weight)] format 2000 (more) 1999 (more) 2008 (less) RISKS: The south-central and eastern U.S. could be warmer given the ongoing drought conditions from the southern Plains across the Southeast. The western Southwest could be cooler if the -PDO/-PNA combo. becomes a bigger player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TNE Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 You skipped spring and went straight to the summer? How is spring like if you do not mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 You skipped spring and went straight to the summer? How is spring like if you do not mind? No one cares about spring/fall Energy forecasting FTW. All the spring months (March through May) have a cool West Coast and mild/warm central and eastern U.S. based on the analogs and some minor adjustments. Of course, given the volatility associated with the shoulder months of spring and fall, spring could easily be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 So, how's next winter looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Here's the summer precipitation anomaly forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm still waiting on my hot and dry winter forecast to verify, but carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm still waiting on my hot and dry winter forecast to verify, but carry on... I might feel physical pain when it's time to do the full winter verification not a good season. Texas has actually been warmer then my forecast for most of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Although Spring is hard to forecast as you mentioned, do you think that the warm winter in the east will lead to an early Spring? Will this impact vegetation making things green up, bud, and blossom faster and earlier? Also, if we do have an early Spring, is it possible the usual rainy April spell will get out of the way sooner? My community is having a Renaissance Faire in mid-April and we're hoping and praying for nice, green, dry weather. To me, this pattern seems familiar...very similar to the Winter of 08-09. It didn't snow that entire Winter until the tail end of it. Then we had a longer than normal Spring and the wet spell came early in March so by the time April came everything was nice and greened out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Although Spring is hard to forecast as you mentioned, do you think that the warm winter in the east will lead to an early Spring? Will this impact vegetation making things green up, bud, and blossom faster and earlier? Also, if we do have an early Spring, is it possible the usual rainy April spell will get out of the way sooner? My community is having a Renaissance Faire in mid-April and we're hoping and praying for nice, green, dry weather. To me, this pattern seems familiar...very similar to the Winter of 08-09. It didn't snow that entire Winter until the tail end of it. Then we had a longer than normal Spring and the wet spell came early in March so by the time April came everything was nice and greened out already. I think we will have an "early spring" when it comes to temperatures (warmer than normal), but I won't go into it much more than that (mostly because I don't know). This is a summer forecast thread... please keep it related to the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I think we will have an "early spring" when it comes to temperatures (warmer than normal), but I won't go into it much more than that (mostly because I don't know). This is a summer forecast thread... please keep it related to the summer. I know this is about Summer. But as someone else asked about Spring, I figured it would not be a problem if I did. Plus, an early Spring can often bring about early Summer weather too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 I know this is about Summer. But as someone else asked about Spring, I figured it would not be a problem if I did. Plus, an early Spring can often bring about early Summer weather too. I just wanted to put the statement out there for everyone... wasn't directed only at you (apologies for the miscommunication). If people want to speculate about spring (based on my summer forecast and analog years or otherwise)... that can be taken to a new/different thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Virginia hippie, I totally agree 100% on this winter reminding me 2008-2009. I would not be surprised we get our snow at the end of February going into March. 2008-2009 was the 2nd La Nina in a row. If this plays out similar then June and July will feel like summer where August was much more cooler then normal along with precip above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Also, for those of you who are wondering what my analogs had for this winter.... Using my weighted analogs: Versus the to-date anomalies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 you analogs are all nina summers when most of the models have neutral or a weak nino this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 you analogs are all nina summers when most of the models have neutral or a weak nino this summer JJA ENSO numbers from my analogs... 1999: -0.9 (weak Nina) 2000: -0.4 (negative-neutral) 2008: -0.1 (negative-neutral) The weighted analog JJA ENSO value is -0.57. All three analogs trended in the positive direction from winter to summer (two started as a moderate Nina and one was a strong Nina). The latest IRI and CFS forecasts: IRI shows a consensus of negative-neutral for JJA, while the CFS (which I'm not a big fan of) shows positive-neutral. My forecast is a bit more negative with respect to ENSO, but it's not significantly different from the IRI forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm still waiting on my hot and dry winter forecast to verify, but carry on... LOL .... I know the snow fanatics don't care but I found this winter extremely interesting (e.g. your weather this year). Ellinwood, good forecast; good luck man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOL .... I know the snow fanatics don't care but I found this winter extremely interesting (e.g. your weather this year). Ellinwood, good forecast; good luck man. One of the wettest Niñas I remember...also normal/coolish around here which is rare, there have been a few colder Niñas...but even those are usually dry. And it looks like we are not finished yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOL .... I know the snow fanatics don't care but I found this winter extremely interesting (e.g. your weather this year). Ellinwood, good forecast; good luck man. It has been an adventure. Fortunately our lakes are getting some help and you haven't had to hear wailing and gnashing of teeth from folks down here... One of the wettest Niñas I remember...also normal/coolish around here which is rare, there have been a few colder Niñas...but even those are usually dry. And it looks like we are not finished yet. Yes sir. It has been everything that not too many expected and why I enjoy long range forecasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ellinwood- are you seeing an enhanced risk of East Coast TCs, at least in August. Trying to guess your ridge and trough placement from temp/precip forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ellinwood- are you seeing an enhanced risk of East Coast TCs, at least in August. Trying to guess your ridge and trough placement from temp/precip forecasts. To be honest I hadn't looked at the tropical cyclone aspect of the summer (and subsequent fall) forecast. I'd say that the chance for an East Coast landfall is a little above climo this year, but I'm not that well read up on tropical forecasting. Out of my three analog years, there were two East Coast landfalling TCs... Floyd in 1999 and Hanna in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Thanks for this. Any thoughts on where the "hot spots" for thunderstorms will be in the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Thanks for this. Any thoughts on where the "hot spots" for thunderstorms will be in the summer? My favored summer thunderstorm areas would be the central Plains down to far northern Texas eastward through the southern Midwest and Tennessee Valley (i.e. the usual suspects). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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