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Feb. 13-15TH Potential Winter Storm


PatrickSumner

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Yeah, that's gonna be a rainer here.

So all aboard the PatrickSumner train for me. 0.9" to get to 20" for the season and I don't care what happens the rest of the way. :)

I don't care after 25". Would be nice to salvage one aspect of my winter outlook. Otherwise I will be awarding myself a big fat F.

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I don't care after 25". Would be nice to salvage one aspect of my winter outlook. Otherwise I will be awarding myself a big fat F.

25" should be good to go. Remember, my call of a March storm (biggest of the season) in my outlook. :yikes::lol:

But yes, I'm learning quickly that I need to get out of the season prediction game. F+ for myself.

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25" should be good to go. Remember, my call of a March storm (biggest of the season) in my outlook. :yikes::lol:

But yes, I'm learning quickly that I need to get out of the season prediction game. F+ for myself.

I've grown an aversion to predicting seasons as I've learned more about weather. I didn't even put out an outlook this year.

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I think this could pack more of a punch than expected since it's pulling gulf moisture along with it.

Which area(s) do you think this system may pack more punch? Local forecast is for 1-3". NAM came in a little wetter for this immediate area.

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Meanwhile qpf really down here in SE MI. If the latest runs are correct we wont even get an inch of snow, perhaps just a half inch. Hope it changes. If it doesnt, no sweat as we had a very nice surprise Friday night. But i will be keeping an eye on if this system for sure, hoping its another one where the qpf is underdone, so looking forward to nowcast obs from those to my WSW. As bad as this winter has been, several of our snow events have seen 24-48hr leadtime qpf underdone (with Friday taking the cake). Odd in that it was usually the opposite in recent years, despite getting tons of snow qpf was often overdone.

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0z ECMWF

LSE: 0.07"

MSN: 0.08"

MKE: 0.07"

SBM: 0.06"

CID: 0.17"

DVN: 0.15"

PIA: 0.10"

RFD: 0.09"

ORD: 0.07"

MDW: 0.08"

DEC: 0.13"

STL: 0.22"

PAH: 0.28"

IND: 0.12"

LAF: 0.14"

VPZ: 0.06"

MIE: 0.10"

OKK: 0.11"

FWA: 0.08"

HAO: 0.13"

DAY: 0.13"

CMH: 0.15"

TDZ: 0.06"

CLE: 0.07"

MKG: 0.10"

BTL: 0.06"

GRR: 0.08"

ADG: 0.07"

DTW: 0.03"

PHN: 0.02"

YKF: 0.03"

YYZ: 0.01"

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Meanwhile qpf really down here in SE MI. If the latest runs are correct we wont even get an inch of snow, perhaps just a half inch. Hope it changes. If it doesnt, no sweat as we had a very nice surprise Friday night. But i will be keeping an eye on if this system for sure, hoping its another one where the qpf is underdone, so looking forward to nowcast obs from those to my WSW. As bad as this winter has been, several of our snow events have seen 24-48hr leadtime qpf underdone (with Friday taking the cake). Odd in that it was usually the opposite in recent years, despite getting tons of snow qpf was often overdone.

I think that the qpf predicted by the Euro (as posted by Joe above) will be accurate. Even if the system drags in more moisture than predicted, there is a lot of low level dry air to overcome. Looks to be a virga fest at the onset.

Now the Wed.-Thurs. system may be another story. I could see it overperforming. The problem is that it will rain for most in our sub-forum.

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Clark and Floyd counties in Indiana (Jeffersonville/Clarksville/New Albany) are under a Winter Weather Advisory for 90% chance of snow tonight with accumulation of less than 1 inch possible and a 70% chance of rain and snow tomorrow with accumulation of less than half an inch possible. Meanwhile, Jefferson County KY (Louisville and across the river) only gets a Special Weather Statement for 90% chance of snow tonight with accumulation of less than 1 inch possible and an 80% chance of rain and snow tomorrow with accumulation of less than half an inch possible.

lol

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When it says light snow... It means LIGHT snow. I have to be looking at a dark object to see the falling flakes.

Yeah I'm starting to see tiny flakes coming down! I can see the flakes against my evergreen trees.

RPM model is spitting out 1.4" for here. Will see...

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12 z ECMWF

LSE: 0.13"

MSN: 0.10"

MKE: 0.05"

SBM: 0.06"

CID: 0.21"

DVN: 0.13"

PIA: 0.11"

RFD: 0.07"

ORD: 0.05"

MDW: 0.06"

DEC: 0.11"

STL: 0.17"

PAH: 0.18"

VPZ: 0.09"

LAF: 0.09"

IND: 0.11"

MIE: 0.13"

OKK: 0.11"

FWA: 0.11"

HAO: 0.11"

DAY: 0.14"

CMH: 0.14"

TDZ: 0.09"

CLE: 0.08"

MKG: 0.11"

BTL: 0.09"

GRR: 0.08"

ADG: 0.10"

DTW: 0.06"

PHN: 0.04"

YKF: 0.03"

YYZ: 0.05"

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12 z ECMWF

LSE: 0.13"

MSN: 0.10"

MKE: 0.05"

SBM: 0.06"

CID: 0.21"

DVN: 0.13"

PIA: 0.11"

RFD: 0.07"

ORD: 0.05"

MDW: 0.06"

DEC: 0.11"

STL: 0.17"

PAH: 0.18"

VPZ: 0.09"

LAF: 0.09"

IND: 0.11"

MIE: 0.13"

OKK: 0.11"

FWA: 0.11"

HAO: 0.11"

DAY: 0.14"

CMH: 0.14"

TDZ: 0.09"

CLE: 0.08"

MKG: 0.11"

BTL: 0.09"

GRR: 0.08"

ADG: 0.10"

DTW: 0.06"

PHN: 0.04"

YKF: 0.03"

YYZ: 0.05"

Some reduction in QPF around here on the 12z runs. Might have to settle for an inch if they're right.

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Some reduction in QPF around here on the 12z runs. Might have to settle for an inch if they're right.

Even though it'll fall tonight, temps are really climbing today. Couple that with light rates and they'll be quite a bit of melting as it hits the ground. I think we'll do good if we get an inch. Meh.

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