Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 NAM has 0.18" for LAF. More in line with the others. 1-2"...yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It is being overshadowed by the big storm down the line Yeah, that's gonna be a rainer here. So all aboard the PatrickSumner train for me. 0.9" to get to 20" for the season and I don't care what happens the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 NAM has 0.18" for LAF. More in line with the others. 1-2"...yep. Hopefully we can manage 11.2:1 ratios to crack 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think this could pack more of a punch than expected since it's pulling gulf moisture along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah, that's gonna be a rainer here. So all aboard the PatrickSumner train for me. 0.9" to get to 20" for the season and I don't care what happens the rest of the way. I don't care after 25". Would be nice to salvage one aspect of my winter outlook. Otherwise I will be awarding myself a big fat F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't care after 25". Would be nice to salvage one aspect of my winter outlook. Otherwise I will be awarding myself a big fat F. 25" should be good to go. Remember, my call of a March storm (biggest of the season) in my outlook. But yes, I'm learning quickly that I need to get out of the season prediction game. F+ for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 25" should be good to go. Remember, my call of a March storm (biggest of the season) in my outlook. But yes, I'm learning quickly that I need to get out of the season prediction game. F+ for myself. I've grown an aversion to predicting seasons as I've learned more about weather. I didn't even put out an outlook this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I've grown an aversion to predicting seasons as I've learned more about weather. I didn't even put out an outlook this year. I really just do it for fun, but the results haven't been pretty lately. Lots to learn evidently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think this could pack more of a punch than expected since it's pulling gulf moisture along with it. Which area(s) do you think this system may pack more punch? Local forecast is for 1-3". NAM came in a little wetter for this immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Meanwhile qpf really down here in SE MI. If the latest runs are correct we wont even get an inch of snow, perhaps just a half inch. Hope it changes. If it doesnt, no sweat as we had a very nice surprise Friday night. But i will be keeping an eye on if this system for sure, hoping its another one where the qpf is underdone, so looking forward to nowcast obs from those to my WSW. As bad as this winter has been, several of our snow events have seen 24-48hr leadtime qpf underdone (with Friday taking the cake). Odd in that it was usually the opposite in recent years, despite getting tons of snow qpf was often overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think somewhere in the .5-1.5" will be the total for here. Just another nickel to add to the till. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think somewhere in the .5-1.5" will be the total for here. Just another nickel to add to the till. Nickel? That's more like a penny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nickel? That's more like a penny. Haha yeah! 18.6" vs. 68" last season at this time! Maybe by this time tomorrow I'll be above 20" for the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nickel? That's more like a penny. Pennies count too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 0z ECMWF LSE: 0.07" MSN: 0.08" MKE: 0.07" SBM: 0.06" CID: 0.17" DVN: 0.15" PIA: 0.10" RFD: 0.09" ORD: 0.07" MDW: 0.08" DEC: 0.13" STL: 0.22" PAH: 0.28" IND: 0.12" LAF: 0.14" VPZ: 0.06" MIE: 0.10" OKK: 0.11" FWA: 0.08" HAO: 0.13" DAY: 0.13" CMH: 0.15" TDZ: 0.06" CLE: 0.07" MKG: 0.10" BTL: 0.06" GRR: 0.08" ADG: 0.07" DTW: 0.03" PHN: 0.02" YKF: 0.03" YYZ: 0.01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Meanwhile qpf really down here in SE MI. If the latest runs are correct we wont even get an inch of snow, perhaps just a half inch. Hope it changes. If it doesnt, no sweat as we had a very nice surprise Friday night. But i will be keeping an eye on if this system for sure, hoping its another one where the qpf is underdone, so looking forward to nowcast obs from those to my WSW. As bad as this winter has been, several of our snow events have seen 24-48hr leadtime qpf underdone (with Friday taking the cake). Odd in that it was usually the opposite in recent years, despite getting tons of snow qpf was often overdone. I think that the qpf predicted by the Euro (as posted by Joe above) will be accurate. Even if the system drags in more moisture than predicted, there is a lot of low level dry air to overcome. Looks to be a virga fest at the onset. Now the Wed.-Thurs. system may be another story. I could see it overperforming. The problem is that it will rain for most in our sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12z NAM is wetter here fwiw. 2" would be nice to see. Down at WGN tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Clark and Floyd counties in Indiana (Jeffersonville/Clarksville/New Albany) are under a Winter Weather Advisory for 90% chance of snow tonight with accumulation of less than 1 inch possible and a 70% chance of rain and snow tomorrow with accumulation of less than half an inch possible. Meanwhile, Jefferson County KY (Louisville and across the river) only gets a Special Weather Statement for 90% chance of snow tonight with accumulation of less than 1 inch possible and an 80% chance of rain and snow tomorrow with accumulation of less than half an inch possible. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Healthy snow shield on the way, I'm all about some lunchtime snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 -SN at Rockford. Looks to be snowing here within an hour. 28° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 -SN at Rockford. Looks to be snowing here within an hour. 28° currently. When it says light snow... It means LIGHT snow. I have to be looking at a dark object to see the falling flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Snowing here... Its weird to see snow again. Silly winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 When it says light snow... It means LIGHT snow. I have to be looking at a dark object to see the falling flakes. most of northern illinois won't see half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 When it says light snow... It means LIGHT snow. I have to be looking at a dark object to see the falling flakes. Yeah I'm starting to see tiny flakes coming down! I can see the flakes against my evergreen trees. RPM model is spitting out 1.4" for here. Will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12 z ECMWF LSE: 0.13" MSN: 0.10" MKE: 0.05" SBM: 0.06" CID: 0.21" DVN: 0.13" PIA: 0.11" RFD: 0.07" ORD: 0.05" MDW: 0.06" DEC: 0.11" STL: 0.17" PAH: 0.18" VPZ: 0.09" LAF: 0.09" IND: 0.11" MIE: 0.13" OKK: 0.11" FWA: 0.11" HAO: 0.11" DAY: 0.14" CMH: 0.14" TDZ: 0.09" CLE: 0.08" MKG: 0.11" BTL: 0.09" GRR: 0.08" ADG: 0.10" DTW: 0.06" PHN: 0.04" YKF: 0.03" YYZ: 0.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nothing is sticking, except to some of the grassy areas. Streets are just wet. Even the old lady neighbor's roof is snow free still. Feb sun working some magic//grounds temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nothing is sticking, except to some of the grassy areas. Streets are just wet. Even the old lady neighbor's roof is snow free still. Feb sun working some magic//grounds temps. We have stickage here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12 z ECMWF LSE: 0.13" MSN: 0.10" MKE: 0.05" SBM: 0.06" CID: 0.21" DVN: 0.13" PIA: 0.11" RFD: 0.07" ORD: 0.05" MDW: 0.06" DEC: 0.11" STL: 0.17" PAH: 0.18" VPZ: 0.09" LAF: 0.09" IND: 0.11" MIE: 0.13" OKK: 0.11" FWA: 0.11" HAO: 0.11" DAY: 0.14" CMH: 0.14" TDZ: 0.09" CLE: 0.08" MKG: 0.11" BTL: 0.09" GRR: 0.08" ADG: 0.10" DTW: 0.06" PHN: 0.04" YKF: 0.03" YYZ: 0.05" Some reduction in QPF around here on the 12z runs. Might have to settle for an inch if they're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Now there is a steady light snow that I can see no matter where I look! Starting to stick in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Some reduction in QPF around here on the 12z runs. Might have to settle for an inch if they're right. Even though it'll fall tonight, temps are really climbing today. Couple that with light rates and they'll be quite a bit of melting as it hits the ground. I think we'll do good if we get an inch. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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