PatrickSumner Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I know, I know, it is very early in the ball game, but the GFS and EURO both show a storm. The EURO seems to be slightly faster which is surprising because it likes to hold energy back in the southwest. It has been trending west the past couple of runs now thus this thread. The 12Z GFS run is below (Hours 186 and 189 respectively) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 FWIW the models ATM shouldn't be trusted. They can't even look out 5 days so banking on D10 system is some serious speculation. Either way the time frame and the teleconections might hint at something. But this can go away as fast as it came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 here is what I am going to do for you guys Aking,Thunder,Chgo.Geos, Beast....buckle in this is our 10 incher and then call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Well it's something to watch again! If the NAO stays the same then I can see this system trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 EC storm or OTS. First call. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 EC storm or OTS. First call. Final call. God I hope not. Ill be in Maryland during this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Arctic blast really suppresses this system on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'm gonna guess this is an East Coast'er and maybe a Mid Atlantic system. The cold which may be diving into the middle of the nation will likely cause a system to spin up well East of the lakes. I think this may very well be the big storm of the Winter out East. As far as the Midwest-Lakes-Ohio Valley goes, I think we may be in the game for something around the 17th-22nd. I think the pattern could favor a snow storm or a healthy icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 GFS with a better pv "look" tonight, but the s/w is so far south, the arctic jet would have to dig just about into the gulf to find it lol. Yes...the threat for this time frame is still alive and well. May have to change the date to the 10-11TH instead of all the way through the 13TH. Will not play around with it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'm gonna guess this is an East Coast'er and maybe a Mid Atlantic system. The cold which may be diving into the middle of the nation will likely cause a system to spin up well East of the lakes. I think this may very well be the big storm of the Winter out East. As far as the Midwest-Lakes-Ohio Valley goes, I think we may be in the game for something around the 17th-22nd. I think the pattern could favor a snow storm or a healthy icing event. The GFS and the GGEM do show something around the 15th-16th for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Valentine's Day Storm for OV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Dates have been adjusted accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looking like it could be an I-70 special at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 EC storm or OTS. First call. Final call. It should be noted that the above call was for a storm centered around Feb 11th that will be going well out to sea. No trolling warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looking like it could be an I-70 special at this time. Every time I see people saying that we end up getting snow. So keep saying that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z run shows the system going into the lower lakes. Hopefully it will come back a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Only thing special happening in this thread is a Blue light special at k-mart. Pretty soon this will be pushed back to the deedler storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Only thing special happening in this thread is a Blue light special at k-mart. Pretty soon this will be pushed back to the deedler storm thread. 18Z GFS makes this a Great Lakes event. Not a massive amount of moisture, but would throw down a easy 2-4 along and north of I80 with more possible with lake enhancement. Things could still change either way going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This morning's ILX forecast discussion--possibly an WWA in store for my area for tomorrow? 000 FXUS63 KILX 121138 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 538 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 318 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING...PUSHING MUCH COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST WITH MORE NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC TAKING UP THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY STRETCHING OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING IN OVER THE SWRN CONUS...AS A SFC LOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS. ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHOTS AT PRECIP AS WAVES ROLL OUT OF THE SWRN US. FIRST EVENT STARTS OFF THE WEEK WITH MEASURABLE SNOW FRI AFTERNOON AND IN THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MINOR ISSUES WITH TIMING...MOSTLY AFFECTING WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL ACTUALLY GET GOING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT HINT OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST IS MID WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT OVER THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM WED NIGHT/THU...WITH THE LAST BITS OF THE NAM COMING TO THE SAME SOLN. MORE OF A DISCONNECT ON THE NEXT WAVE OUT OF THE SW LATER IN THE WEEK. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW... AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD...AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT SHIFT AS WELL...THE SFC WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING A BIT OF A WARM UP OVER YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN THE 20S...THOUGH STAYING MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING SNOW FOR MONDAY. GFS WAS A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM...THOUGH THE LAST SYNOPTIC RUNS HAD A LITTLE LESS OF A DIFFERENCE. THE 06Z NAM AND THE 00Z GFS HOLD OFF ON THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL AFTER 18Z IN THE WEST...KEEPING THE SNOW GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...THE SW HAS A CHANCE TO SEE AN EARLIER ONSET OF SNOW WITH A HIGHER SLR...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONGER DYNAMICS IN PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE...AND HAS MORE OF A 2 TO 3 RANGE. HPC QPF WAS BUMPED UP A BIT WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE...PUTTING ILX SWRN COUNTIES CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN START TIME AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION MISS BEFORE 18Z...HAVE PULLED BACK SOMEWHAT OVERALL...WILL DEFER TO NEXT SYNOPTIC RUN FOR ANY MAJOR DECISIONS. WILL BE BORDERLINE SITUATION EITHER WAY. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ITS RETREAT TUES MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FZDL BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT WAVE OVERALL IN A BIT OF A HURRY IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY PATTERN. HESITATE TO CALL A LOT OF ATTENTION TO THE BACK SIDE OF A RAPIDLY PROGRESSING SYSTEM WITH TIMING ISSUES. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE SWRN US ON WED...AND ALL MODELS AGREEING MORE THAN USUAL. HOWEVER...STICKING POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM REVOLVES AROUND THE FACT THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SEVERELY MODIFIED AND THE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SO UNIFORMLY IN THE FAVOR OF SNOW. SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS SLATED FOR RAIN...WITH A MESSY MIX FOR THE NORTH. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT. NEXT SYSTEM HAS MASSIVE TIMING DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF (SAT) AND THE GFS (SAT NIGHT/SUN) AND THE HANDLING OF THE EXIT OF THE WAVE OUT OF THE WEST IN THE FIRST PLACE. ECMWF PUSHES A SLIGHT WAVE AND STRINGS OUT THE REST...WHILE THE GFS DEEPENS OVER THE COAST BEFORE PUSHING A MORE MATURE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...PRECIP IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MIDWEEK UNTIL THE PIC BECOMES CLEARER. SAFE TO SAY THE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HJS && .AVIATION... ISSUED 538 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY AIRMASS. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED... THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM... EXPECTED TO BE A SNOW PRODUCER LOCALLY...WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. BAK && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I hope we get a clear night before it gets here so the temperatures will be lower. I also hope the air is dry so it cools a little when it arrives. Would be a shame to get snow all day that melts on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 My analysis: VD 2007 > whatever happens this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 My analysis: VD 2007 > whatever happens this week. 12z NAM, as per usual, is the "wettest" of the guidance bringing 0.25" QPF amounts through central IL on east through central OH. I'll disregard that, and make a first call of 1-2" for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Gonna go with 1-1.5" here. Long duration very light snow will slowly add up during the day and evening. It will be nice to see it snowing all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 12z NAM, as per usual, is the "wettest" of the guidance bringing 0.25" QPF amounts through central IL on east through central OH. I'll disregard that, and make a first call of 1-2" for LAF. I think we could squeeze out a couple inches here. I'm normally not a fan of long duration light events at this time of year due to the increasing sun angle but it looks like the vast majority of this event will come after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think we could squeeze out a couple inches here. I'm normally not a fan of long duration light events at this time of year due to the increasing sun angle but it looks like the vast majority of this event will come after dark. Yeah I can get on board with this line of thinking. Rates look pretty light, so the bulk falling during nighttime will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I'm so excited about this system!!!!! NOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 12z NAM, as per usual, is the "wettest" of the guidance bringing 0.25" QPF amounts through central IL on east through central OH. I'll disregard that, and make a first call of 1-2" for LAF. Even with that ratios will be terrible with wet snow, 0.25 would probaly yield less than 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Looks like a 1.5-2" here with the latest 12z runs. I'll be really close or over the 20" mark late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 My analysis: VD 2007 > whatever happens this week. The 2007 storm busted for St. Louis. It was mainly a sleet maker, and we ended up with 2.7 at Lambert. So for us, the 2012 storm could possibly outdo the 2007 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 As light as this snow probably will be, this looks to be one of the most widespread snow events anywhere in the country this season. A very large area should see some light snow accumulation. Im thinking a good inch here, but holding my breath for possibly 2". It looks like a vast majority of the precip falls tomorrow night (0.07-0.10") with temps in the 20s, so no problem there...then a few hundredths of probable wasted qpf in the form of wet snow during the day Tues as it warms to maybe the mid-30s. Either way a nice refresher snow looking likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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