Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm looking at surface temps and that's probably more a concern, but luckily there will be plenty more runs they go hand in hand to some degree tho. you need an optimal phase to get the best solution. how often does that stuff work out for us? it could for sure but people should be more skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 idk- i don't think the nam is bad. less precip and a weaker solution but it's splitting hairs a bit at this point. 850 plenty south. A bit of hp to the n&w (1022 not that exciting but it's in a good spot). Just like the entire stretch leading up, nailing down the interaction of the vorts is tough. 18z kinda stretched them out. Doesn't mean they can't hold hands a little better in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm looking at surface temps and that's probably more a concern, but luckily there will be plenty more runs Yeah, surface temps are torchy on this run and I don't see a good reason why. Cloudy with north winds and precip falling and temps are going to jump into the low-mid 40s on Sunday? That doesn't make a lot of sense. I'll take my chances with northerly flow at the surface and 850 temps near -5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Can we please five-post MillzPirate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Can we please five-post MillzPirate? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah, surface temps are torchy on this run and I don't see a good reason why. Cloudy with north winds and precip falling and temps are going to jump into the low-mid 40s on Sunday? That doesn't make a lot of sense. I'll take my chances with northerly flow at the surface and 850 temps near -5C. I was puzzled by that as well. The srefs do the same thing. One of the mets in the Philly subforum mentioned last night that because of data sampling, we might not really have a good handle until the runs tonight. I wonder if we will have it even by then. Hey, at least it's been something to do weatherwise besides gripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 ? I think it has something to do with your post quality. Might want to follow my lead...read more post less. I'm just lurking and reading. It's about quality not post count. Not every post requires your response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah, surface temps are torchy on this run and I don't see a good reason why. Cloudy with north winds and precip falling and temps are going to jump into the low-mid 40s on Sunday? That doesn't make a lot of sense. I'll take my chances with northerly flow at the surface and 850 temps near -5C. Agree. It would only make sense if temps at sunrise were close to 40 and that is very unlikely. We'll see I guess but unless my memory is completely gone, temps aren't going to rise much until precip ends and clouds thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think it has something to do with your post quality. Might want to follow my lead...read more post less. I'm just lurking and reading. I dont see why, just telling it how it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I dont see why, just telling it how it is.... Well pointing people towards a single ensemble member and saying that it shows potential is not "telling it how it is" - ensembles are lower res and are meant to be used together - not individually. So if one single ensemble shows it that doesn't mean it's automatically in the realm of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Well pointing people towards a single ensemble member and saying that it shows potential is not "telling it how it is" - ensembles are lower res and are meant to be used together - not individually. So if one single ensemble shows it that doesn't mean it's automatically in the realm of potential. We have a potential storm to track. That in itself, is exciting, given the pathetic winter we have had so far. Right, Beford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 We have a potential storm to track. That in itself, is exciting, given the pathetic winter we have had so far. Right, Beford? That doesn't excuse not adding anything to the discussion. I realize he is not the only one but still. Also...I'm not sure your post has anything to do with what my point was. I wasn't arguing that it is not nice to have a storm to track...I'm trying to show why people are asking why he is not 5-posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Agree. It would only make sense if temps at sunrise were close to 40 and that is very unlikely. We'll see I guess but unless my memory is completely gone, temps aren't going to rise much until precip ends and clouds thin. If you look at the 12Z NAM, temps start spiking in the early afternoon as precip rates let up, then when the next batch of heavier precip comes in at around 2 pm, the temps start falling again. The model seems to tie the temps to rate of precip, which on the 18Z was signifcantly lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I dont see why, just telling it how it is.... You don't really know much so why are you telling people anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 You don't really know much so why are you telling people anything? Though additionally - I think things would work smoother if you just used the report button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If you look at the 12Z NAM, temps start spiking in the early afternoon as precip rates let up, then when the next batch of heavier precip comes in at around 2 pm, the temps start falling again. The model seems to tie the temps to rate of precip, which on the 18Z was signifcantly lighter. Ah, didn't dig that deep into temp variance over time. Good catch and makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Though additionally - I think things would work smoother if you just used the report button Does that still work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So what is this I hear about a Super Bowl storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So what is this I hear about a Super Bowl storm... curious minds would like to know ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 1-2" with warm BL to start.... fml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 1-2" with warm BL to start.... fml looks like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 gfs, id say not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 gfs, id say not good. Without details this isn't a very informative post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS looks the same to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS to me looks like a widespread T-1"..... light showery stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS looks the same to me. Its a bit worse. QPF split - HGR and west is 0.25... EZF to CHOish south 0.25... everywhere else in LWX CWA is .1 to .25. There is lil phasing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Its a bit worse. QPF split - HGR and west is 0.25... EZF to CHOish south 0.25... everywhere else in LWX CWA is .1 to .25. There is lil phasing at all I think everyone is getting a little too worked up run to run. The global models are just not going to pin down .1 to .25 variances across the MA to our satisfaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Its a bit worse. QPF split - HGR and west is 0.25... EZF to CHOish south 0.25... everywhere else in LWX CWA is .1 to .25. There is lil phasing at all Yea I didn't like the look of the phasing, lets hope 0z comes back in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Its a bit worse. QPF split - HGR and west is 0.25... EZF to CHOish south 0.25... everywhere else in LWX CWA is .1 to .25. There is lil phasing at all p009 will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 p009 will save us! Can you clean up this thread a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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