yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 15z SREFs came in wetter QPF wise The 0.5 QPF line on the 24 hr map is to our north near KBWI... it was south of DC at 9z near KEZF. Plus the 0.25 line went way into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 good thing im going to deep creek sunday morning you may want to leave early....not sure how the minivan will handle in all of that elevation snow on 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 In a complex solution it's usually safer to run toward the idea that either it won't come together as modeled or it will do so too late, in the wrong spot, etc. As was already noted the Euro was a bit dry in the last snow event but not as bad as some would lead us to believe. It could very welll be it's mishandling the 500 low... but there is plenty of rationalization in this thread that's at least somewhat questionable if not from everyone. And I said leaning toward *lower* totals. Guilty as charged. E-wood's map isn't bad at all. It could easily take .4+ qpf to get 2" of snow to accumulate unless we somehow squeeze out below freezing surface temps. I have my doubts about that and I hope I'm proven way wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 My prediction: Low end, coating on grassy surfaces High end: 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 My prediction: Low end, coating on grassy surfaces High end: 1" I'd still like to see a few more model runs to make any sort of predictions... this thing could vary wildly depending on very small factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 QPF field a bit NE on the 18z NAM at 18 hrs when comparing it to the 12z NAM at 24 (see northeast NE for example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 QPF field a bit NE on the 18z NAM at 18 hrs when comparing it to the 12z NAM at 24 (see northeast NE for example) True. But look at 500mb. It looks slightly worse in terms of the upcoming phase potential. But hopefully it looks better in later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 how? it's 2 quick moving systems, with marginal cold air, and minimal dynamics. I doubt I'll see an inch unless it's on grass. if we end up with a situation like last winter with an ULL moving overhead, yeah, things could turn out dramatically different from Randy's prediction. but so far that's not on the table. I think youve seen the solutions that COULD arise ala GGEM, p009 GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 301 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2012 && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GETS PUSHED FARTHER EAST AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FURTHER CUTTING OFF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AN EAST-WEST SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FRONT THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH LIKELIES SPREADING EAST TO ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT COULD SEE ALL SNOW...BUT FOR NOW WENT RAIN/SNOW FOR LOCATIONS WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY /SINCE COLD AIR CONTROLS FRONTS/. PRECIP WILL BE SOMEWHAT NARROW ACROSS THE FRONT...SO GREATER DETAIL CAN BE PROVIDED BY LATER SHIFTS. MAX TEMPS LIMITED DUE TO NEARLY-IF NOT COMPLETE CLOUD COVER...MID TO UPR 40S NORTH...50F DC AND SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...12Z MODEL SUITE OF THE ECMWF...SREF...NAM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HANG BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH BANDED PRECIPITATION CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM AND SREF REMAIN THE COLDEST OF THE 4 SOLUTIONS WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BACKING FLOW TAKING SHAPE. THIS POSES SOME CONCERN FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN NOTORIOUSLY COLD FOR THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER. SIDED TOWARD A BLEND BUT DID STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH SNOWFALL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CHANGEOVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION EAST INTO THE KIAD-KDCA-KBWI METRO. ANTECEDENT WARM TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY KEEP VERY MUCH FROM ACCUMULATING ON URBAN ROADWAYS BUT A DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF COLDER AIR DOES FILTER IN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND DID PUSH LIKELY POPS FURTHER NORTH TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WE ALSO EXTENDED POP CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This is going to be close on the 18z NAM at 33 hrs on h5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think youve seen the solutions that COULD arise ala GGEM, p009 GFS.... Why would you even seriously consider those outliers? It's the Canadian and one ensemble member? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 ewww at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Why would you even seriously consider those outliers? It's the Canadian and one ensemble member? I never said to consider them, but the poster acted as though there was no potential there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Guilty as charged. E-wood's map isn't bad at all. It could easily take .4+ qpf to get 2" of snow to accumulate unless we somehow squeeze out below freezing surface temps. I have my doubts about that and I hope I'm proven way wrong. true. im not necessarily running to the euro verbatim but im leery of totally dismissing it as well in favor of finding the wettest models. as usual some middle ground is probably worthwhile.. tho in a phase or semi phase not much is set in stone around here quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 good thing im going to deep creek sunday morning I'll be there next weekend...hope the zwtys storm pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Partial phase at 42? Can't exactly tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 ewww at the NAM you may want to wait for the run to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Partial phase at 42? Can't exactly tell yeah its phasing at that point, prob too late for much good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 yeah its phasing at that point, prob too late for much good sure about that? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F03%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=042&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 sure about that? http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L I think youre forgetting what 12z looked like in comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 you may want to leave early....not sure how the minivan will handle in all of that elevation snow on 68 were leaving around 8:00am...a bit nervous about this..and not in the mini van Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think youre forgetting what 12z looked like in comparison I still think you should wait until the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think youre forgetting what 12z looked like in comparison I'm pretty sure 18z's are always a bit off lol, but I have a feeling 0z could be something to smile at. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the vort is definitely more strung out this run and the max is trailing a good bit. timing loves to screw us.. just remember that at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm pretty sure 18z's are always a bit off lol, but I have a feeling 0z could be something to smile at. We'll see. did you say anything in this post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Glass half full outlook... 1. We have the potential to see snow late Saturday into Sunday 2. It was just 60+ degrees 3. Models are hinting at cold and snow solution next weekend...possibly We have a lot to be thankful for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the vort is definitely more strung out this run and the max is trailing a good bit. timing loves to screw us.. just remember that at least. and with the weaker forcing, weaker precip on sunday and a sloppy mix of rain/snow in the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 looks like right around .25 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the vort is definitely more strung out this run and the max is trailing a good bit. timing loves to screw us.. just remember that at least. I'm looking at surface temps and that's probably more a concern, but luckily there will be plenty more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 and with the weaker forcing, weaker precip on sunday and a sloppy mix of rain/snow in the big cities. yeah that's a good point too. it is the nam which is like a bouncy ball but certainly nothing set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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