stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 yes...It's usually right anyway through 48...further north Yup. That's why I compared him with the best model. anyway, I need you to reply with a Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 does that represent the uncertainty "of a phase" or "where it phases"? it seems at least a light snow event is in the cards, the question is now becoming can it become a moderate one with a more "perfect" phase it's the spread of 500 mb heights from the individual members...more spread equals more disagreement...so i would say it says there is a great deal of uncertainty in the 500mb height field at this forecast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 yes...It's usually right anyway through 48...further north It;s what we expected...kind of catching on, but not as wet as the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 very dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 hopefully the BL is cool enuf to make it wintry good luck folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 very dry Drier than.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 disaster... .20. The euro hates us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Drier than.....? yes..marcus...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 very dry next.....j/k....Have to love its stubborness the event is over by 9am, 0.15"-0.20" QPF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 disaster... .20. The euro hates us quit your whining it will keep adding by tomorrow temps look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 very nice write-up...good thing we have a board though...I prefer to look at potential winter events through a lens other than whether it will affect travel, shut schools, stick to main arteries or cancel Johnny's piano recital True.. Where else would we quickly know every model is trending to the snowiest one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 quit your whining it will keep adding by tomorrow temps look good temps look terrible because there is hardly any precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 quit your whining it will keep adding by tomorrow temps look good Yea euro as Matt said should be slow to catch on, at least temps are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 In the last accumulating snow we had, the Euro was a bit too dry, but the GFS and NAM were far too wet (remember the non-existent second wave?). Last winter, the drier Euro was closer to being right on a couple of events as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the euro is too slow with the initial closed low over the midwest to actually phase with the vort dropping down through canada....so no fun on Sunday...and a cold rain on Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the difference between a small event and a moderate one are small it seems, atmospherically speaking this could end up too warm come tomorrow or passing to our south we're just gunna' have to wait and see, which is a real pain in the arse because it sure would be nice to get certainty early in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 quit your whining it will keep adding by tomorrow temps look good I don't expect the euro to get this correct...I said this at hour 30.....it is not going to get the phase properly...at 18z Sunday it still has a closed ULL over northeast Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 In the last accumulating snow we had, the Euro was a bit too dry, but the GFS and NAM were far too wet (remember the non-existent second wave?). Last winter, the drier Euro was closer to being right on a couple of events as well. An op Euro op GFS blend is much less satisfying than an op NAM and a GFS ens mean blend. The dry models just need to catch on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the euro is too slow with the initial closed low over the midwest to actually phase with the vort dropping down through canada....so no fun on Sunday...and a cold rain on Saturday night ...So yesterday it was: CMC RGEM JMA vs Euro, GFS, NAM, UKIE Now it's CMC RGEM JMA NAM vs Euro, UKIE, with GFS on the fence... Despite the trend, and not that weather forecasting is the same as model scoring, but I think that's still enough reason to keep a healthy skepticism... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Good luck well there is the kiss of death...event cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 DT shifted a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the euro is too slow with the initial closed low over the midwest to actually phase with the vort dropping down through canada....so no fun on Sunday...and a cold rain on Saturday night I think Matt or someone else mentioned that if the Euro went with its bias of doing that, it would look like cr@p the fact that the reason why it does look like cr@p is because of hanging back the energy is good imho vs. some other issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 DT shifted a lot. Yeah... Wasn't he saying a few days ago that there was no chance of anything, and anyone who said otherwise was just wrong? I like the DT/JB forecast model - whatever it says, go opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Good luck Wonder if he saw the Euro. But really the issue is obviously phase or no phase. Some do it and some don't. 18z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think Matt or someone else mentioned that if the Euro went with its bias of doing that, it would look like cr@p the fact that the reason why it does look like cr@p is because of hanging back the energy is good imho vs. some other issue yeah it does fit into the narrative of the euro bias...unfortunately that doesn't mean its incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 a kitten dies everytime a weenie uses the ensemble mean to forecast p-type... In that case don't ever ban WinterWxLuvr.. i hate cats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 now this does shock/encourage me http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72072.gif It's nice to see SNE steal our snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 before we even see the solution either way* , I don't trust the euro much in this setup...It is probably going to hold the southern branch energy back and phase it in too late.... *If it shows a wet/snowy solution, ignore my caveat the euro is too slow with the initial closed low over the midwest to actually phase with the vort dropping down through canada....so no fun on Sunday...and a cold rain on Saturday night I don't expect the euro to get this correct...I said this at hour 30.....it is not going to get the phase properly...at 18z Sunday it still has a closed ULL over northeast Kansas I think Matt or someone else mentioned that if the Euro went with its bias of doing that, it would look like cr@p the fact that the reason why it does look like cr@p is because of hanging back the energy is good imho vs. some other issue yeah it does fit into the narrative of the euro bias...unfortunately that doesn't mean its incorrect. it might be right but this isn't a solution I expect the euro to handle well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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