mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the difference between a small event and a moderate one are small it seems, atmospherically speaking this could end up too warm come tomorrow or passing to our south we're just gunna' have to wait and see, which is a real pain in the arse because it sure would be nice to get certainty early in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 In the last accumulating snow we had, the Euro was a bit too dry, but the GFS and NAM were far too wet (remember the non-existent second wave?). Last winter, the drier Euro was closer to being right on a couple of events as well. An op Euro op GFS blend is much less satisfying than an op NAM and a GFS ens mean blend. The dry models just need to catch on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the euro is too slow with the initial closed low over the midwest to actually phase with the vort dropping down through canada....so no fun on Sunday...and a cold rain on Saturday night ...So yesterday it was: CMC RGEM JMA vs Euro, GFS, NAM, UKIE Now it's CMC RGEM JMA NAM vs Euro, UKIE, with GFS on the fence... Despite the trend, and not that weather forecasting is the same as model scoring, but I think that's still enough reason to keep a healthy skepticism... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Good luck well there is the kiss of death...event cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 DT shifted a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the euro is too slow with the initial closed low over the midwest to actually phase with the vort dropping down through canada....so no fun on Sunday...and a cold rain on Saturday night I think Matt or someone else mentioned that if the Euro went with its bias of doing that, it would look like cr@p the fact that the reason why it does look like cr@p is because of hanging back the energy is good imho vs. some other issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 DT shifted a lot. Yeah... Wasn't he saying a few days ago that there was no chance of anything, and anyone who said otherwise was just wrong? I like the DT/JB forecast model - whatever it says, go opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Good luck Wonder if he saw the Euro. But really the issue is obviously phase or no phase. Some do it and some don't. 18z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think Matt or someone else mentioned that if the Euro went with its bias of doing that, it would look like cr@p the fact that the reason why it does look like cr@p is because of hanging back the energy is good imho vs. some other issue yeah it does fit into the narrative of the euro bias...unfortunately that doesn't mean its incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 a kitten dies everytime a weenie uses the ensemble mean to forecast p-type... In that case don't ever ban WinterWxLuvr.. i hate cats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 now this does shock/encourage me http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72072.gif It's nice to see SNE steal our snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 yeah it does fit into the narrative of the euro bias...unfortunately that doesn't mean its incorrect. it does if you're a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 OK, I'll say it first it's hard to believe we're only going to get .1-.2" out of this http://beta.intellic...ue&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 OK, I'll say it first it's hard to believe we're only going to get .1-.2" out of this http://beta.intellic...ue&animate=true you do know that's like saying you're going to go with the NHC extrapolation over all available hurricane guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 In that case don't ever ban WinterWxLuvr.. i hate cats I'm sure you'll be able to find posts where I did that. Oh, after you learn to read, that is. But thanks for another wonderful contribution to the discussion. Hope your PMS ends well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 you do know that's like saying you're going to go with the NHC extrapolation over all available hurricane guidance. of course, I was just fooking around because somebody always says the radar looks more than the models predict Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 you do know that's like saying you're going to go with the NHC extrapolation over all available hurricane guidance. We must extrapolate further by examining the NAM simulated radar. Looks like a pretty good match. http://mag.ncep.noaa...6_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 JMA backed down on qpf by almost 1/2 from 0Z .25"+ now and it's a tick warmer fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 OK, I'll say it first it's hard to believe we're only going to get .1-.2" out of this http://beta.intellic...ue&animate=true Classic DC split setting up already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 JMA backed down on qpf by almost 1/2 from 0Z .25"+ now and it's a tick warmer fwiw What about the CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 JMA backed down on qpf by almost 1/2 from 0Z .25"+ now and it's a tick warmer fwiw support from our friend http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_036m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 What about the CRAS? hey, it's a JI thread I had to post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 support from our friend http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_pcp_036m.gif ol' Mrs. Cras is a warm one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Classic DC split setting up already So I wasn't the only one that saw it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Figures after I post that qpf will probably not back down from where we are now it's doing just that. I guess it's my fault. I'm a good guy so only throw small rocks please. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Figures after I post that qpf will probably not back down from where we are now it's doing just that. I guess it's my fault. I'm a good guy so only throw small rocks please. lol It is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Figures after I post that qpf will probably not back down from where we are now it's doing just that. I guess it's my fault. I'm a good guy so only throw small rocks please. lol Lots of banking on a near perfect phase. I guess that's to be expected at this point in our craptastic winter. I'd lean toward lighter totals still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Forecast out of the Millersville Wx Center http://snowball.mill...ooks/latest.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Forecast out of the Millersville Wx Center http://snowball.mill...ooks/latest.jpg in this winter, 48 hrs out, anyone's guess is as good as another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Forecast out of the Millersville Wx Center http://snowball.mill...ooks/latest.jpg They need some Accuwx hype graphics to make the storm name seem more scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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