Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'm sorry you didn't get snow tonight and your "silver bullet" changeover temperature was a sham for DC. Sounds like thermodynamics > local knowledge > model soundings! In which section of the thermodynamics lesson plan does it tell you to issue a WSW for 5-9" on 12/26/10 when it was obvious to anyone with a pulse it was going to miss us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 In which section of the thermodynamics lesson plan does it tell you to issue a WSW for 5-9" on 12/26/10 when it was obvious to anyone with a pulse it was going to miss us? What are you talking about? I could be forgetting but I don't remember issuing any WSW I think you have me confused with someone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 How many have you had tonight? I'll bet this band brings you your 20 flakes. Wasn't trying to be a jerk as much as I'd rather not hear about d6+ modeled storms while we are hoping the nam was right a few hrs ago. Plus there's a thread or two for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 What are you talking about? I could be forgetting but I don't remember issuing any WSW I think you have me confused with someone else? I meant you in the general sense. Anyway, it 's all good. Congrats on your degree and red tag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 In which section of the thermodynamics lesson plan does it tell you to issue a WSW for 5-9" on 12/26/10 when it was obvious to anyone with a pulse it was going to miss us? Local knowlede wins sometimes. It's doesn't always work out in that order. If there was a simple formula that was right in every case, monkeys could be pro mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I meant you in the general sense. Anyway, it 's all good. Congrats on your degree and red tag! No reason to get bent out of shape. And I have three degrees in atmospheric science so I don't appreciate being lumped in with any random met who made a bad call. Nor would any other met here, the anti-Red tag bias is getting kinda old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Local knowlede wins sometimes. It's doesn't always work out in that order. If there was a simple formula that was right in every case, monkeys could be pro mets. Yes very true he apparently just has it out for me tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Local knowlede wins sometimes. It's doesn't always work out in that order. If there was a simple formula that was right in every case, monkeys could be pro mets. I'm not even sure they are arguing the same thing...zwyts seems to be arguing that if the event was prolonged (like into this evening and overnight), that DC would be snowing eventually...and chris87 is arguing that it can rain with 0C temps from 925mb and up...I think both statements are true. DC would eventually change to snow with steady precip and no warm layer aloft via latent cooling of the column from the top down...however, before that happens, they would indeed be raining for a while before the lower 50-100mb cooled enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No reason to get bent out of shape. And I have three degrees in atmospheric science so I don't appreciate being lumped in with any random met who made a bad call. Nor would any other met here, the anti-Red tag bias is getting kinda old. We have a lot of operational and research mets in our region who can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. There are certainly a number of non degreed who can give red taggers a beatdown in forecasting. Meant in a friendly way and exaggerated a bit but you get the picture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No reason to get bent out of shape. And I have three degrees in atmospheric science so I don't appreciate being lumped in with any random met who made a bad call. Nor would any other met here, the anti-Red tag bias is getting kinda old. You should get a super duper red tag then! There was no magic bullet. Thats been my experience. I never doubted you when you were posting the 950mb temps from the RUC as our best indicator and in fact I asked for met guidance last night on how far down we needed to be below freezing on a sounding to intuit snow. I'm a lawyer with only one law degree and not a met. I'd be happy to get an education on synoptic rain events with a warm boundary layer here in mid winter with the surface in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 35/33 Rain/Snow mix Can not go over to all SN out here for this event so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 We have a lot of operational and research mets in our region who can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. There are certainly a number of non degreed who can give red taggers a beatdown in forecasting. Meant in a friendly way and exaggerated a bit but you get the picture.. I fully agree. I respect many of you guys as equals and some as much more when it comes to forecasting but I can't help a good debate, although I could be a bit less aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 You should get a super duper red tag then! There was no magic bullet. Thats been my experience. I never doubted you when you were posting the 950mb temps from the RUC as our best indicator and in fact I asked for met guidance last night on how far down we needed to be below freezing on a sounding to intuit snow. I'm a lawyer with only one law degree and not a met. I'd be happy to get an education on synoptic rain events with a warm boundary layer here in mid winter with the surface in the mid 30s. Frankly I'd rather there be no tags at all....ill look and see what I can find out about those events. No hard feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 35/33 Rain/Snow mix Can not go over to all SN out here for this event so far... i just went out im pretty sure it's all rain but maybe i saw a flake in the light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I fully agree. I respect many of you guys as equals and some as much more when it comes to forecasting but I can't help a good debate, although I could be a bit less aggressive. well forecasting is pretty independent of some of the guts of things. tho the very best forecasters i know of all do have a red tag... or would if they posted here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Frankly I'd rather there be no tags at all....ill look and see what I can find out about those events. No hard feelings. It's all good. Not trying to be a dick-wad. I have a long long history of defending mets for having taken the hard maths and sciences when most of us took sociology 101 and did bong hits. Many/most of us couldn't hack that kind of rigorous course load or subject matter. So I don't try and diminish that accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It's all good. Not trying to be a dick-wad. I have a long long history of defending mets for having taken the hard maths and sciences when most of us took sociology 101 and did bong hits. Many/most of us couldn't hack that kind of rigorous course load or subject matter. So I don't try and diminish that accomplishment. It's cool..I can be more dickwad than helpful when trying to convey information. My area of research is so far away from forecasting maybe you shouldn't believe me anyways...I spend all my days studying drought and evapotranspiration (way more exciting than it sounds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 well forecasting is pretty independent of some of the guts of things. tho the very best forecasters i know of all do have a red tag... or would if they posted here I don't know anyone who is an upper upper echelon short/medium range forecaster who isn't a met. There are some mets who I am flummoxed that they got a degree but you can say that about any discipline even in the sciences. Though I've never tried to maintain that liberal arts degrees are tantamount to science/engineering degrees. They aren't. The subject matter is easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wasn't trying to be a jerk as much as I'd rather not hear about d6+ modeled storms while we are hoping the nam was right a few hrs ago. Plus there's a thread or two for that. guilty, but I learned a long time ago when you can see the moon through the overcast (like tonight), it's hard to get excited and everyone seemed to be in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 F-uck this event. I'm not staying up until 5am to see -sn sticking to a car top. I will stay up to see the euro give us 0.0" frozen QPF in the next 240 hours and then hopefully wake up in April when our average high is 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I don't know anyone who is an upper upper echelon short/medium range forecaster who isn't a met. There are some mets who I am flummoxed that they got a degree but you can say that about any discipline even in the sciences. Though I've never tried to maintain that liberal arts degrees are tantamount to science/engineering degrees. They aren't. The subject matter is easier. you know me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 F-uck this event. I'm not staying up until 5am to see -sn sticking to a car top. I will stay up to see the euro give us 0.0" frozen QPF in the next 240 hours and then hopefully wake up in April when our average high is 88 Sad storm... Two winters now in DC with nothing..I missed the late jan event last winter bc I was out of town. I pretty much hate my snow life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I don't know anyone who is an upper upper echelon short/medium range forecaster who isn't a met. There are some mets who I am flummoxed that they got a degree but you can say that about any discipline even in the sciences. Though I've never tried to maintain that liberal arts degrees are tantamount to science/engineering degrees. They aren't. The subject matter is easier. forecasting is a lot about knowing what leads to what which is a lot about watching for a long time in addition to research. pretty much anyone can watch every model run for 10 years in a row and figure out which things lead to what and be right a good deal of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 i just went out im pretty sure it's all rain but maybe i saw a flake in the light IAD been primarily rain for this event. Part one was all rain. Part two has some snow mix. Nothing major and all ground surfaces are wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 you know me Me and you could hold our own on some numerical contests but we aren't going to wow anyone with our knowledge of mid level frontogenesis or CCB's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Me and you could hold our own on some numerical contests but we aren't going to wow anyone with our knowledge of mid level frontogenesis or CCB's a lot of that is jargon.. it's really just about where the purple is on the gfs at 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Have a mix of ice pellets, snow and a few drops, all light. 34.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 IAD been primarily rain for this event. Part one was all rain. Part two has some snow mix. Nothing major and all ground surfaces are wet. storm came and went quicker than expected was the main deal i think. people always act surprised when it snows because it never snows but most of the forecasts for at least the last day or so indicated those places would get snow. so it happened at 5 instead of 9. one day we'll take what we've all learned about a fast pattern and a spitoff piece of precip and not get all excited about the models which show an unlikely phase 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No real Precip Here just some fog. You know what that means? Time to bust out the friggen lasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 storm came and went quicker than expected was the main deal i think. people always act surprised when it snows because it never snows but most of the forecasts for at least the last day or so indicated those places would get snow. so it happened at 5 instead of 9. one day we'll take what we've all learned about a fast pattern and a spitoff piece of precip and not get all excited about the models which show an unlikely phase 2 days out. I was just expecting a quicker change to snow out this way regardless of the starting time. It happened north and west, but Sterling east never got in to the snow. It was more than likely due precipitation staying light more than the temperature. A tough and very humbling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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