PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I feel OK since I'll likely get the superband that always sets up to the north and west of the heaviest QPF stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I feel OK since I'll likely get the superband that always sets up to the north and west of the heaviest QPF stripe. "if" it ends up being close to what it's being proged now, my guess is there will be a 30+/- mile area, north to south, with a WNW/ESE trajectory that will max out snow based on temps and qpf I'm not sure this type of setup will be like a 1/30/10 that did have that superband since temps are marginal high elevations west of DC seem to be the sweet spot now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This storm is more important than 2/5/10-2/6/10. Most important day of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM is ALL RAIN imby through 48 hrs, and it's not even close at 51 hrs, surface temp is 1C so that would certainly be snow gonna' loose a fair bit of that qpf total to rain EDIT: not much qpf falls through 48 hrs; I am an idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM is ALL RAIN imby through 48 hrs, and it's not even close at 51 hrs, surface temp is 1C so that would certainly be snow gonna' loose a fair bit of that qpf total to rain You think its really gonna be that warm? We'll have to see. Also we only get like .08 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 You think its really gonna be that warm? We'll have to see. see EDIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 see EDIT Also see mine haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM is ALL RAIN imby through 48 hrs, and it's not even close at 51 hrs, surface temp is 1C so that would certainly be snow gonna' loose a fair bit of that qpf total to rain EDIT: not much qpf falls through 48 hrs; I am an idiot We you anyway... 12z RGEM should be intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So to get this straight - looks like a 2 piece system - most of the first piece is rain - then the upper support comes and could be mainly snow. Nam is usually too wet Wet bulb crash between 54 and 66 - Wet snow on grass and 1 - 2 inches at best. Need a phase to bring cold air down. Trends show wetter, but not colder. Nam on board - GFS - better but not there. It is as clear as mud! I am sure the next models will clear it up and it will all be clear by 12 Z Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Us northern MD peeps need it to come a little bit further north if we want to see anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Us northern MD peeps need it to come a little bit further north if we want to see anything decent. That would be nice...but define decent? As of now according to NAM its a 2 inch event or so for BWI/Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Us northern MD peeps need it to come a little bit further north if we want to see anything decent. There is always a heavy band north and west of where the models put the heaviest QPF. It is usually over Leesburg after those guys spent 3 days whining about being fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 That would be nice...but define decent? As of now according to NAM its a 2 inch event or so for BWI/Baltimore That would be more than I have gotten in any event this winter - so that is decent. There is always a heavy band north and west of where the models put the heaviest QPF. It is usually over Leesburg after those guys spent 3 days whining about being fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1014 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2012 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- INCREASED POPS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING FROM SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BAND...WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE LWX CWA...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RECENT WARM WEATHER AND MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F SATURDAY WILL REALLY LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WERE ADDED ACROSS THE DC METRO FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER GUIDANCE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE CONFIDENT FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Barely, but snow in N VA and DC at 48 on 12z RGEM. Snow in MD as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM snowfall I sense another Frederick screw job coming, just like in the October storm. Being in a valley has not been kind to my area this year as we are pitching a complete shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 next watch it overphase and be rain the nam is nice overall with other players too -- 50/50ish low and ridging backing into greenland. what's modeled is not very common here tho so kinda hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Barely, but snow in N VA and DC at 48 on 12z RGEM. Snow in MD as well RGEM ain't bad and consistent with other models remember, NAM has bulk of our stuff failing after 48 hrs and RGEM looks to do the same imho http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_048.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Not sure if big diff right now... but note the popup of the 0.25+ QPF field in N KY/SE IL/S IN at 30 on 12z. Was further south on 06z at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I sense another Frederick screw job coming, just like in the October storm. Being in a valley has not been kind to my area this year as we are pitching a complete shutout. I can see that, too. Temps at the boundary layer appear to be just so marginal, during the overrunning part, especially. Hard to believe that is a major concern the first week in Feb. Being on Parr's Ridge 15mi. south of you has been good (relatively) for Clarksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Looks wet/warm to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 next watch it overphase and be rain the nam is nice overall with other players too -- 50/50ish low and ridging backing into greenland. what's modeled is not very common here tho so kinda hard to believe. A rex block in the center of the country is rare in itself so the setup is not going to be very easy to apply a lot of the typical caveats. The very basics still apply though in that you want to see the vortmax track south of DC for the best deformation precip and you still want northerly flow in the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Way better QPFwise... whether that's rain or snow is another quesion though. Precip here at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 According to Camden Walker of the Capital Weather Gang: "This is more like 1" of snow maximum vs. nothing." See http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak That's just Camden's opinion. He's not speaking for CWG there. Situation is too complicated to box it in like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 A rex block in the center of the country is rare in itself so the setup is not going to be very easy to apply a lot of the typical caveats. The very basics still apply though in that you want to see the vortmax track south of DC for the best deformation precip and you still want northerly flow in the BL. yeah if the vort goes north of us im mostly disinterested.. tho gymengineer will come in with those special cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 500mb on the 12z GFS looks better. Closer to the 12z NAM than 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 wow Here ya go bud, good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 500mb on the 12z GFS looks better. Closer to the 12z NAM than 06z GFS. Do I see interaction at 45 on h5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Eh...the GFS is "meh" ish...not quite as aggressive as NAM...little warmer too..Maybe squeeze out an inch in Baltimore on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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