chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 You should get a super duper red tag then! There was no magic bullet. Thats been my experience. I never doubted you when you were posting the 950mb temps from the RUC as our best indicator and in fact I asked for met guidance last night on how far down we needed to be below freezing on a sounding to intuit snow. I'm a lawyer with only one law degree and not a met. I'd be happy to get an education on synoptic rain events with a warm boundary layer here in mid winter with the surface in the mid 30s. Frankly I'd rather there be no tags at all....ill look and see what I can find out about those events. No hard feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 35/33 Rain/Snow mix Can not go over to all SN out here for this event so far... i just went out im pretty sure it's all rain but maybe i saw a flake in the light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I fully agree. I respect many of you guys as equals and some as much more when it comes to forecasting but I can't help a good debate, although I could be a bit less aggressive. well forecasting is pretty independent of some of the guts of things. tho the very best forecasters i know of all do have a red tag... or would if they posted here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It's all good. Not trying to be a dick-wad. I have a long long history of defending mets for having taken the hard maths and sciences when most of us took sociology 101 and did bong hits. Many/most of us couldn't hack that kind of rigorous course load or subject matter. So I don't try and diminish that accomplishment. It's cool..I can be more dickwad than helpful when trying to convey information. My area of research is so far away from forecasting maybe you shouldn't believe me anyways...I spend all my days studying drought and evapotranspiration (way more exciting than it sounds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wasn't trying to be a jerk as much as I'd rather not hear about d6+ modeled storms while we are hoping the nam was right a few hrs ago. Plus there's a thread or two for that. guilty, but I learned a long time ago when you can see the moon through the overcast (like tonight), it's hard to get excited and everyone seemed to be in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I don't know anyone who is an upper upper echelon short/medium range forecaster who isn't a met. There are some mets who I am flummoxed that they got a degree but you can say that about any discipline even in the sciences. Though I've never tried to maintain that liberal arts degrees are tantamount to science/engineering degrees. They aren't. The subject matter is easier. you know me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 F-uck this event. I'm not staying up until 5am to see -sn sticking to a car top. I will stay up to see the euro give us 0.0" frozen QPF in the next 240 hours and then hopefully wake up in April when our average high is 88 Sad storm... Two winters now in DC with nothing..I missed the late jan event last winter bc I was out of town. I pretty much hate my snow life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I don't know anyone who is an upper upper echelon short/medium range forecaster who isn't a met. There are some mets who I am flummoxed that they got a degree but you can say that about any discipline even in the sciences. Though I've never tried to maintain that liberal arts degrees are tantamount to science/engineering degrees. They aren't. The subject matter is easier. forecasting is a lot about knowing what leads to what which is a lot about watching for a long time in addition to research. pretty much anyone can watch every model run for 10 years in a row and figure out which things lead to what and be right a good deal of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 i just went out im pretty sure it's all rain but maybe i saw a flake in the light IAD been primarily rain for this event. Part one was all rain. Part two has some snow mix. Nothing major and all ground surfaces are wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Me and you could hold our own on some numerical contests but we aren't going to wow anyone with our knowledge of mid level frontogenesis or CCB's a lot of that is jargon.. it's really just about where the purple is on the gfs at 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Have a mix of ice pellets, snow and a few drops, all light. 34.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 IAD been primarily rain for this event. Part one was all rain. Part two has some snow mix. Nothing major and all ground surfaces are wet. storm came and went quicker than expected was the main deal i think. people always act surprised when it snows because it never snows but most of the forecasts for at least the last day or so indicated those places would get snow. so it happened at 5 instead of 9. one day we'll take what we've all learned about a fast pattern and a spitoff piece of precip and not get all excited about the models which show an unlikely phase 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No real Precip Here just some fog. You know what that means? Time to bust out the friggen lasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 storm came and went quicker than expected was the main deal i think. people always act surprised when it snows because it never snows but most of the forecasts for at least the last day or so indicated those places would get snow. so it happened at 5 instead of 9. one day we'll take what we've all learned about a fast pattern and a spitoff piece of precip and not get all excited about the models which show an unlikely phase 2 days out. I was just expecting a quicker change to snow out this way regardless of the starting time. It happened north and west, but Sterling east never got in to the snow. It was more than likely due precipitation staying light more than the temperature. A tough and very humbling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 light snow in Bethesda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Well folks - DCA gets the Split again - precip going SE - gonna miss us. Cloudy and dry rest of the night. Next welcome to la nina in washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 more snow accumulation past 3 hours than yesterdays "heavier" event. 30.5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Well congrats who got snow. Looked like it pretty much went as planned. In this winter, gotta appreciate any mangled flake that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 steady very light snow and fog here for past 5 hours. sure is pretty daily low of 29.8 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Very light snow just started a few minutes ago with this dying band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 LOL, Midlo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Picked up another .75 sometime during the night. Sitting right on 1.75. Need another .25 to verify Ellinwoods forecast. Still snowing lightly with radar showing maybe one more round coming. Edit: Largest snow at my house since October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Ellinwood owned DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Saw some flakes mixing in with rain for the most part. Everything melted when it hit the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not expecting much with what the radar shows moving SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Snow guy with my 7 year old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 it snowed off and on overnight and the back edge of what looks to be the last band is coming through now. now on to Wednesday! Congrats... Send some east will ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Ellinwood owned DT. Agree completely. What snow? DT is believing his own hype machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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