aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 the 0z nam spit out an underwhelming 0.02" qpf after 6z at DCA. so if it's right, we'll get some flurries/sprinkles inside the beltway... Yep...I was just thinking this batch right now looks to run through dc....everything is light overnight for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Coming down a bit harder now...flakes size growing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Weatherbug's are not always accurate...33 seems low to me based on surrounding obs, but maybe you were close....point is you were going to go to snow (you were already mixing) assuming we actually had more precip....I don't ever recall an event in mid winter where the column from 875-900 mb and up was below freezing and it was a prolonged synoptic rain event with temps in the mid 30s....and this event was no different.....nobody was going to get hour after hour of rain and 34 with this setup...I'm not saying anyone advanced that idea, but when it looked like more of a prolonged event into the overnight hours, anyone suggesting an all rain event with temps in the low to mid 30s would have busted It was my ob. There are plenty of events that have all rain when the first 100 mb are above freezing, anyone with a basic knowledge of atmospheric thermodynamics and cloud physics would agree. Snow doesn't usually fall though that deep of a warm layer especially in this case, with light to moderate rates in a saturated column. Yes it would had eventually changed over due to CAA, but the precip was over before the column was cool enough to support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yep...I was just thinking this batch right now looks to run through dc....everything is light overnight for sure i wasn't saying nam is necessarily right... just that if it is, we're talking next to nothing. we want the nam to be wrong if this is going to overperform... the localized nature of these bands will be make this stuff overnight hard to model right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The radar has been weird this evening. Earlier we had light snow under no echo, and now, well out of the last echo, still snowing nicely with large flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 GFS looks like it's trying to set us up for something interesting day 6'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 If it doesn't miss to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 i wasn't saying nam is necessarily right... just that if it is, we're talking next to nothing. we want the nam to be wrong if this is going to overperform... the localized nature of these bands will be make this stuff overnight hard to model right.... I'm with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was right....Day 6+ HM storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 If it doesn't miss to the south Sure looks like bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was right....Day 6+ HM storm Geeze what a perfect damn setup 1039 high over the lakes, slp just east of ORF, whew.... Buy,buy,buy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 not much with that band....some rain/pixie mixed in with it....soooo...eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 cool...show me an example of a prolonged synoptic rain event in mid winter with surface temps in the mid 30s here that fits that criteria....I am certainly willing to be proven wrong.... and congrats on having the same temp as HGR when they were getting moderate snow and I was 5-10 miles to your south at 37-39.... Sure thing I'll dedicate the thread to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Geeze what a perfect damn setup 1039 high over the lakes, slp just east of ORF, whew.... Buy,buy,buy Wrong thread get out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was right....Day 6+ HM storm It's probably going to snow next weekend no matter what the GFS has to say now. The pattern looks ripe. Of course for Ian's sake, I'll wait until the CMC gets on board before I get too excited. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 35/35 for me and you...I suspect Silver Spring might be in the upper teens by now If I see 20 flakes this storm will become a success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 35/35 for me and you...I suspect Silver Spring might be in the upper teens by now I'm sorry you didn't get snow tonight and your "silver bullet" changeover temperature was a sham for DC. Sounds like thermodynamics > local knowledge > model soundings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wrong thread get out I didn't start talking about it, but I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I didn't start talking about it, but I understand. I was hoping others might take the hint too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was hoping others might take the hint too How many have you had tonight? I'll bet this band brings you your 20 flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 In which section of the thermodynamics lesson plan does it tell you to issue a WSW for 5-9" on 12/26/10 when it was obvious to anyone with a pulse it was going to miss us? What are you talking about? I could be forgetting but I don't remember issuing any WSW I think you have me confused with someone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 How many have you had tonight? I'll bet this band brings you your 20 flakes. Wasn't trying to be a jerk as much as I'd rather not hear about d6+ modeled storms while we are hoping the nam was right a few hrs ago. Plus there's a thread or two for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 In which section of the thermodynamics lesson plan does it tell you to issue a WSW for 5-9" on 12/26/10 when it was obvious to anyone with a pulse it was going to miss us? Local knowlede wins sometimes. It's doesn't always work out in that order. If there was a simple formula that was right in every case, monkeys could be pro mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I meant you in the general sense. Anyway, it 's all good. Congrats on your degree and red tag! No reason to get bent out of shape. And I have three degrees in atmospheric science so I don't appreciate being lumped in with any random met who made a bad call. Nor would any other met here, the anti-Red tag bias is getting kinda old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Local knowlede wins sometimes. It's doesn't always work out in that order. If there was a simple formula that was right in every case, monkeys could be pro mets. Yes very true he apparently just has it out for me tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Local knowlede wins sometimes. It's doesn't always work out in that order. If there was a simple formula that was right in every case, monkeys could be pro mets. I'm not even sure they are arguing the same thing...zwyts seems to be arguing that if the event was prolonged (like into this evening and overnight), that DC would be snowing eventually...and chris87 is arguing that it can rain with 0C temps from 925mb and up...I think both statements are true. DC would eventually change to snow with steady precip and no warm layer aloft via latent cooling of the column from the top down...however, before that happens, they would indeed be raining for a while before the lower 50-100mb cooled enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No reason to get bent out of shape. And I have three degrees in atmospheric science so I don't appreciate being lumped in with any random met who made a bad call. Nor would any other met here, the anti-Red tag bias is getting kinda old. We have a lot of operational and research mets in our region who can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. There are certainly a number of non degreed who can give red taggers a beatdown in forecasting. Meant in a friendly way and exaggerated a bit but you get the picture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 35/33 Rain/Snow mix Can not go over to all SN out here for this event so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 We have a lot of operational and research mets in our region who can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. There are certainly a number of non degreed who can give red taggers a beatdown in forecasting. Meant in a friendly way and exaggerated a bit but you get the picture.. I fully agree. I respect many of you guys as equals and some as much more when it comes to forecasting but I can't help a good debate, although I could be a bit less aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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