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The feb 4-5 storm (Obs/Discussions)


Ji

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The NAM was awful with this event. I know you tend to like it in the short range but I'm not always sure why other than you are an HPC guy. Perhaps we get another area of precip later this evening but the Euro destroyed it on this event just like it did on 10/29 and 1/22.

I didn't like this event for us. With sheared events, the nam often gives us too much precip. I generally like it's surface temps if all the other fields look similar to those of the GFS and euro. When they differ, the euro usually wins for QPF but not for temps as it is often too warm. I wouldn't count on much with the evening stuff.

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I didn't like this event for us. With sheared events, the nam often gives us too much precip. I generally like it's surface temps if all the other fields look similar to those of the GFS and euro. When they differ, the euro usually wins for QPF but not for temps as it is often too warm. I wouldn't count on much with the evening stuff.

I'm not counting on later though I wouldn't mind seeing some flakes fall.

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Im on a phone. Where do you live that you were 33 and rain? I don't remember seeing any Obs like that.

it's cool, i'm in silver spring, i was near 34/33 (33 now...check Lowell School weatherbug for nearest other ob to mine, 33 right now) for the last hour of the event...mostly rain/snow mix...never fully changed over...

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Nothing showing up even on composite radar, but I'm getting drizzle with some drops also. All liquid now, at 32.0 degrees.

Precip back to snow as rates pick up. Radar upstream looks like we might stay with snow showers the rest of the night. Cleared the snow board after today's fall. Will be interesting to see what can add up from spotty light snow.

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The Ohio moisture looks to be getting better organized...at least to my weenie eyes....looks pretty far North as well

Justin Berk agrees

This radar from ~8:30pm shows enhanced snow filling into northern Ohio. This is a sign of a jet streak or vort max swinging through the northern branch jet. There is some phasing going on, allowing moisture to pull north. The track will be north of morning models and what I hinted at as the first wave hit... So more snow likely to arrive midnight-2am and depart around sunrise. Another inch or so possible. Colder air will help places in AA Co and DC area get some. There will be some flurries and showers before midnight, but also some melting with temps 33F-35 in many places. So the overall snow vs. what you see on the ground in the morning will not be exactly the same.

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Looks like round 2 might be fun to watch out the window for a while. Wont amount to much but at least it will be all snow this time. I got mostly rain with round 1 until the very end. Nice to see the usual spots to the west and north get some accum. Alot of time was spent tracking so at least the ground turned white in some places.

Doesn't look like DT's map is in jeopardy of verfiying.

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Well that was a nice little surprise - we drove from Germantown up to Frederick around 5:30 to go out for dinner and it was snowing nicely all the way up. Got a table by the window and enjoyed watching the fat flakes illuminated by the streetlights. An inch ain't much but you gotta take what you can get in a winter like this!

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