WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 FWIW 0z NAM drops .12 at JYO overnight Also shows precip at least through early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 1.1" was the total for Clarksburg with the first batch. 31.9/32 here now with 1mph N breeze and some flurries passing thru. That sheared out streak in the northern stream upstream looks interesting. I wonder if that is what the NAM is picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 1.1" was the total for Clarksburg with the first batch. 31.9/32 here now with 1mph N breeze. That sheared out streak in the northern stream upstream looks interesting. I wonder if that is what the NAM is picking up. the nam looked pretty interesting in the upper levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Incoming ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 NAM shows 0.14 for KOKV from now until tomorrow morning. I hate watching radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 NAM shows 0.14 for KOKV from now until tomorrow morning. I hate watching radar. It really does suck you in, which is not fair, but thats what we do, so no biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Incoming ! Look west young man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Sitting at 37 degrees. Hoping to see a coating on the patio furniture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Look west young man. I have a steady temp no wind and 93% RH. Most times of the year those obs mean the precip isn't over. With the boundary around wouldn't take much to precipitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 it's snowing again now. Been a nice winter day. I was in Martinsburg this afternoon taking care of some business. Our town is never prettier than when it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looks like it we can get some decent precip out of this wave it should stick on the roadways this time. Road temps have dropped quite a bit. http://www.chart.state.md.us/travInfo/weatherStationData.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 what is your location? Gaithersburg MD about 10 miles NW of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 we were looking at a property in Harpers Ferry late this morning and came home just as the precip started. even then snow was mixed in, and I have been out on the porch a lot today/tonight just looking at how pretty it is here. the only bad thing is that when it precipitates I lose the view of the Apps from our bedroom, but at least today it's been snow. I spent almost 20 years in DC wishing I were out here for winters like this and even though it's a low snowfall winter, I have really enjoyed this winter so far (albeit with appropriately lowered expectations). but still, as I said earlier this winter, Shenandoah Valley winter! Zwyts promised me a mid-March bomb last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 thanks! there is an option in your profile to specify your location--it's really helpful to add so we all know where you are. I saw that! I was encouraged. Went and fixed it after you asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Light snow has just started up again. 31.9/32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 With the Dacula radar shifted as far west as it will go for the Mid Atl. it makes it look like Kokomo, Ind. is a precip factory. It sure looks like that band is going to set up over us later on. Snowing at a decent clip here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 nice little blob heading this way....might pass just to my North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Weatherbug's are not always accurate...33 seems low to me based on surrounding obs, but maybe you were close....point is you were going to go to snow (you were already mixing) assuming we actually had more precip....I don't ever recall an event in mid winter where the column from 875-900 mb and up was below freezing and it was a prolonged synoptic rain event with temps in the mid 30s....and this event was no different.....nobody was going to get hour after hour of rain and 34 with this setup...I'm not saying anyone advanced that idea, but when it looked like more of a prolonged event into the overnight hours, anyone suggesting an all rain event with temps in the low to mid 30s would have busted This goes along with what we mentioned last night with the model soundings...when they start showing 0C from 925-950mb during steady precip, its usually only a matter of itme before it snows regardless of what they try to show at the surface unless you have a wind off the ocean which this event did not...and a wind off the ocean usually will struggle to have 0C as low as 925-950mb anyway, so those cases are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Weatherbug's are not always accurate...33 seems low to me based on surrounding obs, but maybe you were close....point is you were going to go to snow (you were already mixing) assuming we actually had more precip....I don't ever recall an event in mid winter where the column from 875-900 mb and up was below freezing and it was a prolonged synoptic rain event with temps in the mid 30s....and this event was no different.....nobody was going to get hour after hour of rain and 34 with this setup...I'm not saying anyone advanced that idea, but when it looked like more of a prolonged event into the overnight hours, anyone suggesting an all rain event with temps in the low to mid 30s would have busted I want a 1a precip type report, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Light snow has just started up again. 31.9/32. I just saw a few flakes as well. Maybe we will get lucky and get another nice band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Snow starting back up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 radar looks good for you I think so...this stuff looks to head through DC as well...maybe the 0z NAM will be right...goodness you would think it could get a 12 hour forecast right..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not to be overly optimistic, but the SE trajectory of that banding in OH looks like it's heading straight for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not to be overly optimistic, but the SE trajectory of that banding in OH looks like it's heading straight for the metro It never pays to be overly optimistic here for snow but it does look like some more flakes should fall overnight....Euro bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It never pays to be overly optimistic here for snow but it does look like some more flakes should fall overnight....Euro bust CMC for president. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I think so...this stuff looks to head through DC as well...maybe the 0z NAM will be right...goodness you would think it could get a 12 hour forecast right..... the 0z nam spit out an underwhelming 0.02" qpf after 6z at DCA. so if it's right, we'll get some flurries/sprinkles inside the beltway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I just use 36-37 as general idea of going to snow as I don't think this setup supported a prolonged rain event if one could maintain that temp or lower based on my experience....If one looks at old metars which I do all the time we see that over and over in rain to snow events....obviously the 925-950mb layer is the one that actually matters, but 36-37 or lower usually suggests that that layer is there or getting there soon Yes...as long as there is no inversion (which you have stated many times) then its usually a pretty good temp to base a mix/changeover on. 36 seems to be a favorite number here when we are changing over in a a situation with no warm layers aloft. Realistically you want that 0C height getting below 950mb as the flakes have a hard time surviving more than 400 meters of above freezing air....but seeing 925-950mb on the models knowing mod/heavy precip will be around ensures that the 0C will continue to lower without aid of warm air advection which this type of event clearly lacked. So that's why its typically good to look for those wetbulb zero heights on the soundings when steady precip is around...it can kind of give a threshold for changeovers. Models generally don't lower those wetbulb heights fast enough in those setups. N and central MD saw this play out with more snow in the afternoon than models gave originally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 only in this winter would we get a 5H map like this and absolutely nothing to show for it http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F05%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 CMC for president. Silly....Canadians can't run for president Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Silly....Canadians can't run for president Zing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.