Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM about .60 qpf for jyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Looks like NAM gives an event total for DC of about .5" of precip which translates into... 3" of snow, the rest -rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 850 temps are plenty cold and the storm starts with 850 temps well below zero...this will be mostly snow. Sunday temps are around freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am not sure I'd spend much time worrying over thermal profiles when the overall features are still changing every six hours... true, but this run does not support accumulating snow on paved surfaces....maybe a bit towards the wee hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 850 temps are plenty cold and the storm starts with 850 temps well below zero...this will be mostly snow. Sunday temps are around freezing Yea 2-4 incher on the nam, still improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am not sure I'd spend much time worrying over thermal profiles when the overall features are still changing every six hours... +1 Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am not sure I'd spend much time worrying over thermal profiles when the overall features are still changing every six hours... Slightly flawed logic...the problem is that we've got dewpoints at the start of the overunning event in the mid to upper 30s (no dry air to cool the lower column)...if you want the cooler/drier air to get here sooner...you miss the phase and you have no big deal for the second event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Well, looks like all of the models will be losing the storm now. Oh well. I don't get this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Deep Creek gets 5-8 inches which is where I am headed sunday morning through Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I don't get this post. Once we create individual storm threads, we usually fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Slightly flawed logic...the problem is that we've got dewpoints at the start of the overunning event in the mid to upper 30s (no dry air to cool the lower column)...if you want the cooler/drier air to get here sooner...you miss the phase and you have no big deal for the second event. ..I found this post really educational/insightful. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Slightly flawed logic...the problem is that we've got dewpoints at the start of the overunning event in the mid to upper 30s (no dry air to cool the lower column)...if you want the cooler/drier air to get here sooner...you miss the phase and you have no big deal for the second event. Maybe at 18Z a cold high pressure will magically appear to our north. Seems as likely as anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Deep Creek gets 5-8 inches which is where I am headed sunday morning through Monday It will be funny if the storm trends stronger and your backyard gets more than Deep Creek, that would be hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Davis, WV ski areas look to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I don't get this post. Ji started the thread. Bad karma. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Holy hell! I just saw all the frames of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Maybe at 18Z a cold high pressure will magically appear to our north. Seems as likely as anything else. we can hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 this is still changing, but for the better at last it's been almost 2 years (2/10/10) since things broke in our favor; hopefully the trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Anyone care to venture a guess on snow start time / end time for this system? A. Sat 11pm - Sun 11am B. Sun 3am - Sun 3pm C. Sun 7am - Sun 7pm D. What storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Once we create individual storm threads, we usually fail. Got it. Little slow I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Anyone care to venture a guess on snow start time / end time for this system? A. Sat 11pm - Sun 11am B. Sun 3am - Sun 3pm C. Sun 7am - Sun 7pm D. What storm? I love a good bar time snow... so I'm hoping for a 9PM SAT to 9AM SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Total precip for the NAM DC looks to be about 0.50, mountains of WVA look to get 1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Holy hell! I just saw all the frames of the NAM. I think its funny because it screws NYC on north just like the storm exactly two years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 this is still changing, but for the better at last it's been almost 2 years (2/10/10) since things broke in our favor; hopefully the trend continues This... and I am hoping this one continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Slightly flawed logic...the problem is that we've got dewpoints at the start of the overunning event in the mid to upper 30s (no dry air to cool the lower column)...if you want the cooler/drier air to get here sooner...you miss the phase and you have no big deal for the second event. Don't smack me around for asking this, but wouldn't heavier precip (like that being modeled) help to cool the column as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 thats sure is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Don't smack me around for asking this, but wouldn't heavier precip (like that being modeled) help to cool the column as well? It physically can occur (not saying it will)....honestly I haven't looked at the soundings from the 12z NAM to even see what we have to deal with regarding p-types for the overruning event.. EDIT: as depicted by the 12z NAM...freezing levels are near 900 mb (with surface temps in the low to mid 40s, dewpoints in the upper 30s) for most of the heavier overrunning precipitation...and even then the heaviest rates stay mainly south of DC...it really looks like snow changes hinge on the mid-level feature...which frankly has trended towards being a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 storm qpf totals on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Treatment of the vort rotating in from the NW and interacting with our storm makes all the difference Good (NAM): Bad (GFS): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 storm qpf totals on the nam So close to being better, great trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.