Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 that's interesting and good proof why one doesn't use a 48 hour forecast to nowcast....and if I remember correctly 48 hours ago had some breaks in the cloud cover during early portions of today, thus why MOS was probably a bit higher....you get in to the 950 mb to 850 mb layer and the GFS forecasts from 48 hours were much more in line... I think it was pretty obvious we werent getting into the low 50s today. Anyway, my wet bulb is 37/38. I think later this evening we get snow if we can get precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 only because it was the model that showed essentially no snow every model forecast that has shown no snow 36 hrs+ has been right, whether the GFS or EC Even though it had the low going through Minneapolis just a few days ago? Only about 1000-2000 miles off on the low placement 3 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I think it was pretty obvious we werent getting into the low 50s today. Anyway, my wet bulb is 37/38. I think later this evening we get snow if we can get precip. Yeah, i was surprised to hear MOS was in the lower 50s...even 48 hours ago.. I think an hour or two on the back edge could be predominantly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caps1980 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Snowing pretty good right now in Hanover,PA just over the Mason/Dixon line...not sticking though. Current temp is 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 New NAM look wetter to me. I compared to 12z and I think it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Rain with flakes mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Quickly changing to mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Light snow here. Temp at 38.5. You'd think anyone getting into decent precip after dark is going to see possible accum. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 some decent embedded bands. could still shut off quickish to north despite early onset and maybe more snow to start than planned. what a sad little storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Radar looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 wet snow starting to mix with rain in Frederick. 36.9F after a high of 42F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Quickly changing to mostly snow Yup. I just woke up from a nap and it's snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 All rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownerd Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The snow is starting to stick, temp is down to 37.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 looking at RUC analyses in SW Pa...things are changing over to mostly snow when 950 mb temps get below zero...RUC forecasts that to occur around the DC area between 23z and 00z tonight... BWI isn't all that far from that line already on meso analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yup. I just woke up from a nap and it's snowing It is mixing back and forth here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Quickly changing to mostly snow Surprised. Backs up chris87's 950mb comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 90/10 RA/SN 35.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It is mixing back and forth here. the banding is probably doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 THEREFORE... PRIMARY CONCERN TURNS TO THE FGEN BAND DROPPING SWD. ASSOC DEEP LYR MSTR BGNG TO AFFECT NRN MD ATTM...AND WL BE A CONSIDERATION IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS/NRN SHEN VLY/N OF DC/METRO BALT FOR THE EVNG HRS. BASED ON TIMING AND OBSVD WX...HAD TO LEAN A BIT MORE ON SNW FOR PTYPE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THAT ELEMENT...BUT REAL-TIME OBS ADDING CONFIDENCE. SNW ACCUM MINIMAL. SUBFRZG TEMPS MOST LKLY W OF FDK...WHERE UP TO AN INCH PSBL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 the banding is probably doing it. Now that that heavier band is south of me, it's back to all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 it's cool we have something but after a week of tracking im kinda embarrased to be a weather fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 almost 50/50 RA/SN now in Ballenger Creek area of Frederick. 36.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Snow is picking up. Temp 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Ok flakes just started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Now that that heavier band is south of me, it's back to all snow once you cool enough it might stay all snow. but im sure it helped mix down colder air. i wonder what that spot north of poolesville is.. some solid echoes in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Rain/snow mix in Damascus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Sort of having some white rain now... Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Now that that heavier band is south of me, it's back to all snow Same in Frederick. All snow now at least at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Wow already having flakes mix in Towson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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