mattinpa Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 NAM is north and doesn't look bad for you guys. We all hope for what we can get in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 yep, 6Z NAM much wetter but surface is warmer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 No suprises with the 06Z GFS compared to the 00Z. The ensemble mean is also in good agreement with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 06Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Its 12-15 hrs from the start of the "event." Its hard to get excited about accumulating snow of any kind in the Metro area based on model data. I'm out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looking at the NAM similated radar against real time it looks as if the system is running a little quicker then modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 it's 33 degrees and mostly cloudy....I would think we would need some sun to reach the projected high of 49 here....maybe a good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 it's 33 degrees and mostly cloudy....I would think we would need some sun to reach the projected high of 49 here....maybe a good sign? Given that the precip is coming in sooner I would think high temps will fall short of projections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 12z NAM seems about the same precip wise but a bit cooler closer to the surface....might be able to squeeze out a sloppy inch back this way...better than nothing I say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's an overnight event on the NAM at least so that's a positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The NAM runs this morning just brought hope back it would seem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah, NAM still looks surprisingly healthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The NAM runs this morning just brought hope back it would seem... GFS was wet too so...we will see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 GFS was wet too so...we will see I guess SREF as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 6Z GFS has about .25 in of precip at 35 degrees or lower, would probably be mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LWX has less than an inch for Deep Creek lake on their point and click forecast....seems low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LWX has less than an inch for Deep Creek lake on their point and click forecast....seems low LWX does not do forecasts for Garrett county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LWX does not do forecasts for Garrett county. Right....NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 leesburg must live in a mtn valley he's always colder than everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 6z gfs prints out 2-3 inches for the DC metro if you were a believer in raleighwx snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 leesburg must live in a mtn valley he's always colder than everyone else I will use JYO just for you...36 now....should go up once the planes start taking off in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 this suggests some decent qpf this run of GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 this suggests some decent qpf this run of GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L Seems a little drier, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 meh, no lift it's wasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah, GFS is a total disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 another non-event why we should expect anything different this year, idk at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Another episode of As the Models Turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Per the GFS, tomorrow is meh, time to look forward to the disappointment at the end of the upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Of course the nam and sref come in wetter then the gfs is drier... Its just funny at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Another episode of As the Models Turn Still quite a bit of variability run-to-run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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