Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 This is still intriguing because some solid precip is still awfully close. We'll have to see if we get a last minute shift but with this being less than 24 hours out now that is pretty unlikely. yeah it could still return north. it could also probably sink further south. i would have at least hoped, with always low expecations, that the gradient was not right overhead. then again this could just be an episode of white rain imby and it doesnt matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 This is still intriguing because some solid precip is still awfully close. We'll have to see if we get a last minute shift but with this being less than 24 hours out now that is pretty unlikely. Id say a shift is as likely as ever. Tons of moving parts. Plus why would anyone get down about a NAM run? Decent QPF isn't even that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Id say a shift is as likely as ever. Tons of moving parts. Plus why would anyone get down about a NAM run? Decent QPF isn't even that far away. the nam seems to have moved more toward the euro in the speed of the 500 low. it could be wrong but you'd think as we get closer they'd get closer to being right. with less interaction or even none between the streams we end up back with what we were looking at about 36-48 hours ago. i guess "conventional wisdom" likes heavier precip just south but it also dislikes the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 the nam seems to have moved more toward the euro in the speed of the 500 low. it could be wrong but you'd think as we get closer they'd get closer to being right. with less interaction or even none between the streams we end up back with what we were looking at about 36-48 hours ago. i guess "conventional wisdom" likes heavier precip just south but it also dislikes the edge. Maybe we can do ok without a phase or just a partial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Im putting more weight in the 21z SREF's at this point. While the NAM trend is important the high res models and tomorrow's RUC and HRRR are going to be telling within the first couple hours after 12z whether this will slide south with flurries or we have a chance of a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Maybe we can do ok without a phase or just a partial. The problem is still the first 100 mb....it's too warm...the NAM is likely 90% rain% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Maybe we can do ok without a phase or just a partial. we can hope.. but without that injection of mid-lvl energy passing to our south it's harder to envision a very snowy scenario. hard to believe it takes till next tuesday to get it here (actually looks OK if it werent for the northern stream screwing it) when it passes. the difference between 500mb from 12z to 0z is actually sorta laughable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The problem is still the first 100 mb....it's too warm...the NAM is likely 90% rain% I'm dubious of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 we can hope.. but without that injection of mid-lvl energy passing to our south it's harder to envision a very snowy scenario. hard to believe it takes till next tuesday to get it here (actually looks OK if it werent for the northern stream screwing it) when it passes. the difference between 500mb from 12z to 0z is actually sorta laughable.. It's the nam. This may end up being one of a million examples of why we should never doubt the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's the nam. This may end up being one of a million examples of why we should never doubt the euro. The euro is a god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I've never stepped on to the ledge based on a run of the NAM and I'm not starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I've never stepped on to the ledge based on a run of the NAM and I'm not starting now. Let's wait till Yoda asks how to interpret the GFS before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm dubious of that. That's one way to stay optimistic...I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The euro is a god It still won't stop people from posting the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 That's one way to stay optimistic...I just don't see it. Wasnt the nam pretty cold in our 'ecents' so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It still won't stop people from posting the Canadian. I hate when they do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Wasnt the nam pretty cold in our 'ecents' so far? When the NAM is the coldest depiction it "has to be right because of its resolution" when's its warm, well that's another story. And yes it has generally been the coldest guidance for our very limited set of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I hate when they do that The only two models really worth looking at are the GFS and Euro. If you have to post the UKMET or GGEM you likely aren't getting any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The euro has had one good run all winter and DT had to ruin it with a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's the nam. This may end up being one of a million examples of why we should never doubt the euro. Euro was showing the low level sounding issues too from the beginning...but it should have a shot to snow later in the game if it can precipitate all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 When is the last time we got an all rain event in early February with the entire column from 900mb up below freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Euro was showing the low level sounding issues too from the beginning...but it should have a shot to snow later in the game if it can precipitate all night. Yes. No way it is an all rain event. Once we hit 37 it's snow. I don't ever remember a mid winter event that was 35 and rain without a warm layer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The only two models really worth looking at are the GFS and Euro. If you have to post the UKMET or GGEM you likely aren't getting any snow. that and the constant reference to individual ensemble members are sure signs usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Euro was showing the low level sounding issues too from the beginning...but it should have a shot to snow later in the game if it can precipitate all night. I-95 event 2/8-2-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Where's scooter? He'll deliver us snow even if no model does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I-95 event 2/8-2-10? my b-day blizzard.. i think i called it before you went out on your 2.5 week limb. i'll fight you for naming rights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 my b-day blizzard.. i think i called it before you went out on your 2.5 week limb. i'll fight you for naming rights. You can have that one. I'll name the 3/23 event that has a 976 low and gives WV climo 6.5" and me and you a 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I think another 20 pages and we should have a good Idea whether we're getting a trace or 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 gfs has more interaction in the streams than the nam and a considerably better solution qpf wise. i'd be tempted to think it's more right tho some blend probably still best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 gfs has more interaction in the streams than the nam and a considerably better solution qpf wise. i'd be tempted to think it's more right tho some blend probably still best. Yeah. Looks like 0.35? So how is this going to work? Starts raining at 2-3pm tomorrow and rains all night and then stops? So when I walk outside at 1am it will be raining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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