Ellinwood Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 You probably want it down to 0C at about 950mb...though 925mb will work if the precip is coming down pretty hard...this is what to look for on a sounding, not what actually happens...usually the model sounding will have the 0C wetbulb a little too high if the precip is coming down well. The GFS has the wetbulb 0 height at 928mb at 06z and down to 956mb by 12z Sunday...so if its pretty close to accurate, you'd likey flip to snow sometime after 06z...or even around 06z is the precip is coming down good...but the latter component could be an issue. The NAM is actually quite similar but it has a steeper lower level lapse rate below the wetbulb height...I'm not sure if that's correct, but it would make it tougher if it was. NAM is dry-adiabatic in the lowest levels... with precip falling on the north side of a warm front, I find it incredibly hard to believe that it would be that warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 NAM is dry-adiabatic in the lowest levels... with precip falling on the north side of a warm front, I find it incredibly hard to believe that it would be that warm at the surface. Yeah it did look a bit extreme...esp with that north wind draining down. Looks more like a sounding you'd see with a wind off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 You can have that one. I'll name the 3/23 event that has a 976 low and gives WV climo 6.5" and me and you a 0.5". Can we make it 3/21, so it can be my birthday storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 What are we looking for from the EURO? Consistency I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 FWIW, and yeah its not much, 00z GFS ensemble mean has -3 850s across DCA at 36. 0.25" QPF line runs from around BWI to IAD to MRB and it is snow north of EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 What are we looking for from the EURO? Consistency I guess? lots of color over our houses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 euro's the same So is that good or bad news? I see what ORH said below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 euro's the same It did cool noticeably at the surface...so might give a better chance for light snow even if precip is limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I really think getting snow tomorrow night is more for morale than anything else-- to "prove" to ourselves that the rest of this winter is not going to be a shut-out. Widely spaced, but still existing, snowfalls (even the ones that don't stick well) help us keep the hope that something like a 3/09 will come along down the road. For me outside of the beltway, just having a grass accumulation on Sunday morning will be enough to keep me still optimistic that something better will happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'd like to see some flakes flying tomorrow before bed.....I still like the idea of a relative "over-performer"....I'm calling for 0.5" IMBY to push me over 2" for the season We managed to see one that weenied beyond expectations on 1/9... I'll root for this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 NAM is north and doesn't look bad for you guys. We all hope for what we can get in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 yep, 6Z NAM much wetter but surface is warmer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 No suprises with the 06Z GFS compared to the 00Z. The ensemble mean is also in good agreement with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 06Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Its 12-15 hrs from the start of the "event." Its hard to get excited about accumulating snow of any kind in the Metro area based on model data. I'm out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looking at the NAM similated radar against real time it looks as if the system is running a little quicker then modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 it's 33 degrees and mostly cloudy....I would think we would need some sun to reach the projected high of 49 here....maybe a good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 it's 33 degrees and mostly cloudy....I would think we would need some sun to reach the projected high of 49 here....maybe a good sign? Given that the precip is coming in sooner I would think high temps will fall short of projections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 12z NAM seems about the same precip wise but a bit cooler closer to the surface....might be able to squeeze out a sloppy inch back this way...better than nothing I say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's an overnight event on the NAM at least so that's a positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The NAM runs this morning just brought hope back it would seem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah, NAM still looks surprisingly healthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The NAM runs this morning just brought hope back it would seem... GFS was wet too so...we will see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 GFS was wet too so...we will see I guess SREF as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 6Z GFS has about .25 in of precip at 35 degrees or lower, would probably be mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LWX has less than an inch for Deep Creek lake on their point and click forecast....seems low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LWX has less than an inch for Deep Creek lake on their point and click forecast....seems low LWX does not do forecasts for Garrett county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LWX does not do forecasts for Garrett county. Right....NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 leesburg must live in a mtn valley he's always colder than everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 6z gfs prints out 2-3 inches for the DC metro if you were a believer in raleighwx snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.