Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's a sheared out look with the northern stream dominant. Maybe when I get home thiings will look better. This could be llike the last crappy event. At least it has a nice 50 50 low in place. That's a first. yeah i mentioned that earlier after 12z.. it's about as good as the natl has looked all yr maybe not including oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 maybe we'll get your usual north side superband and pop out a solid dusting. This is still intriguing because some solid precip is still awfully close. We'll have to see if we get a last minute shift but with this being less than 24 hours out now that is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's a sheared out look with the northern stream dominant. Maybe when I get home thiings will look better. This could be llike the last crappy event. At least it has a nice 50 50 low in place. That's a first. You know it's a bad winter when Wes starts using words like crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 This is still intriguing because some solid precip is still awfully close. We'll have to see if we get a last minute shift but with this being less than 24 hours out now that is pretty unlikely. yeah it could still return north. it could also probably sink further south. i would have at least hoped, with always low expecations, that the gradient was not right overhead. then again this could just be an episode of white rain imby and it doesnt matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Id say a shift is as likely as ever. Tons of moving parts. Plus why would anyone get down about a NAM run? Decent QPF isn't even that far away. the nam seems to have moved more toward the euro in the speed of the 500 low. it could be wrong but you'd think as we get closer they'd get closer to being right. with less interaction or even none between the streams we end up back with what we were looking at about 36-48 hours ago. i guess "conventional wisdom" likes heavier precip just south but it also dislikes the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Im putting more weight in the 21z SREF's at this point. While the NAM trend is important the high res models and tomorrow's RUC and HRRR are going to be telling within the first couple hours after 12z whether this will slide south with flurries or we have a chance of a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Maybe we can do ok without a phase or just a partial. The problem is still the first 100 mb....it's too warm...the NAM is likely 90% rain% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Maybe we can do ok without a phase or just a partial. we can hope.. but without that injection of mid-lvl energy passing to our south it's harder to envision a very snowy scenario. hard to believe it takes till next tuesday to get it here (actually looks OK if it werent for the northern stream screwing it) when it passes. the difference between 500mb from 12z to 0z is actually sorta laughable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's the nam. This may end up being one of a million examples of why we should never doubt the euro. The euro is a god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I've never stepped on to the ledge based on a run of the NAM and I'm not starting now. Let's wait till Yoda asks how to interpret the GFS before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm dubious of that. That's one way to stay optimistic...I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 That's one way to stay optimistic...I just don't see it. Wasnt the nam pretty cold in our 'ecents' so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It still won't stop people from posting the Canadian. I hate when they do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Wasnt the nam pretty cold in our 'ecents' so far? When the NAM is the coldest depiction it "has to be right because of its resolution" when's its warm, well that's another story. And yes it has generally been the coldest guidance for our very limited set of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I hate when they do that The only two models really worth looking at are the GFS and Euro. If you have to post the UKMET or GGEM you likely aren't getting any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's the nam. This may end up being one of a million examples of why we should never doubt the euro. Euro was showing the low level sounding issues too from the beginning...but it should have a shot to snow later in the game if it can precipitate all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The only two models really worth looking at are the GFS and Euro. If you have to post the UKMET or GGEM you likely aren't getting any snow. that and the constant reference to individual ensemble members are sure signs usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I-95 event 2/8-2-10? my b-day blizzard.. i think i called it before you went out on your 2.5 week limb. i'll fight you for naming rights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I think another 20 pages and we should have a good Idea whether we're getting a trace or 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 gfs has more interaction in the streams than the nam and a considerably better solution qpf wise. i'd be tempted to think it's more right tho some blend probably still best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 gfs has more interaction in the streams than the nam and a considerably better solution qpf wise. i'd be tempted to think it's more right tho some blend probably still best. Yea was doing a side by side comparison to 18z and 12z and I liked the earlier stream interaction. I wouldn't discount the NAM because we may get absolutely nothing out of this system, but there is minimal guidance taking a certain side yet were so close to the storm. One does wonder the meaning of the lower res ensembles being much more agressive for us, but that happens with operational models all the way up until the storm, so for us to say it is going to trend to them simply because they are showing something different is not a guarantee, something which dtk would likely agree with. All and all though, 0z is an improvement from the last run and gives us a bit of a bone to come back for some more model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 This is awesome, good luck guys and gals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah. Looks like 0.35? So how is this going to work? Starts raining at 2-3pm tomorrow and rains all night and then stops? So when I walk outside at 1am it will be raining? it's still more agressive than the euro tho and the nam moved sorta toward the euro. ee rule? i don't think we change over till after midnight here and it could be closer to morning. even if it snows we might only get down to like 34-35? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 This is awesome, good luck guys and gals! uh.....we *do* get snowstorms down here. "Awesome" is probably not the appropriate adjective to describe what our best case scenario is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Nothing worse than interlopers back patting us for cartop snow at 35 degrees like we live in Jacksonville. Seriously. I'm going to go out on a limb here (not really) and say he's trolling. 2/5/10 was awesome by itself, but I won't lie -- SNE getting shut out made it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 uh.....we *do* get snowstorms down here. "Awesome" is probably not the appropriate adjective to describe what our best case scenario is. ha. i set my initial response invisible after posting it. was not that diplomatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 CWG map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 id be nervous on the north end given the euro/nam but im not smart enough to say whether they're more right than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 This is awesome, good luck guys and gals! T-1" is soo awesome. Try not to get jealous if you can help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Waiting for a met or ddweatherman to tell me how deep the freezing layer has to be to get -sn. 925mb? 950? You probably want it down to 0C at about 950mb...though 925mb will work if the precip is coming down pretty hard...this is what to look for on a sounding, not what actually happens...usually the model sounding will have the 0C wetbulb a little too high if the precip is coming down well. The GFS has the wetbulb 0 height at 928mb at 06z and down to 956mb by 12z Sunday...so if its pretty close to accurate, you'd likey flip to snow sometime after 06z...or even around 06z is the precip is coming down good...but the latter component could be an issue. The NAM is actually quite similar but it has a steeper lower level lapse rate below the wetbulb height...I'm not sure if that's correct, but it would make it tougher if it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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