WVclimo Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 we need one of the varsity operational models (GFS or Euro) to wax us good at some point....looking for inspiration from ensembles and junior varsity models is starting to make me feel icky and gross I hear ya. The 12Z NAM was so pretty, but was way left of the rest of the guidance with the NS vort dropping in to the low. Then 18Z brought it back east, screwing up the phase. I really am not expecting snow to stick in my yard, but even if its falling and melting Sunday morning, I'm satisfied. But I will be rooting hard and watching temps tomorrow, hoping to exceed my heaviest snow since 10/29, 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 we need one of the varsity operational models (GFS or Euro) to wax us good at some point....looking for inspiration from ensembles and junior varsity models is starting to make me feel icky and gross What is the NAM to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 What is the NAM to you? The mascot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Widespread T-1" looks accurate. dc/balt and east probably about tops.. maybe 1-2" if we're really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 dc/balt and east probably about tops.. maybe 1-2" if we're really lucky. maybe by the end of March we can nickel and dime our way to 4-5" on the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I WOULD LOVE! A 10/29 repeat here in WV. Skeptical until I see it happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 maybe by the end of March we can nickel and dime our way to 4-5" on the season that's kinda painful but i guess it would be nice to see it snow a few more times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 dc/balt and east probably about tops.. maybe 1-2" if we're really lucky. Completely agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Berk put out a call on FB... looks good to me. 1 to 2 inches most of us... less than 1 inch far E and SE potions of LWX CWA... 2 to 4 inches FDK to westminister down to CHOish and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 that's kinda painful but i guess it would be nice to see it snow a few more times i was kidding....it would be painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 i was kidding....it would be painful we'll get at least a 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 hope you guys can come away with something from this...enjoy the well reasoned discussions of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 00z NAM has started... let's hope we get some good runs tonight in the 00z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 FWIW, 21z SREFS drier... 0.25 line around FDK/BWI... 0.5 line went south to near RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 NAM will back off tonight, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 This is going to be an interesting NAM run... tongue of weak QPF/moisture in LWX CWA at 18z tomorrow per 00z NAM... 18z wasn't even close. Sim radar at 18 hrs shows precip, rain? 850s are cold enough attm. Also, look in IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Pretty blah north of DC through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Pretty blah north of DC through 24. No chance of a meaningful phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 just isn't even close to a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 NAM will back off tonight, I think. Yup, we're sunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 DCA and south 0.25+ QPF... I am guessing half and half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 One upside right now is that IAD is sitting at 35 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It lightly precipitates DC to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 well we're back to where we were headed the night before last night into yesterday morning.. heck of a gradient. i agree more shifts are possible into tomorrow but i'd think the models are getting a better handle on the speed of the vorts. never bet on a good phase unless it shows up 6 days out and continues on every run after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 DCA and south 0.25+ QPF... I am guessing half and half? Precip is light the whole time. This won't be snow if it just spits for 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Precip is light the whole time. This won't be snow if it just spits for 18 hours. maybe we'll get your usual north side superband and pop out a solid dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It lightly precipitates DC to death. It's a sheared out look with the northern stream dominant. Maybe when I get home thiings will look better. This could be llike the last crappy event. At least it has a nice 50 50 low in place. That's a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's a sheared out look with the northern stream dominant. Maybe when I get home thiings will look better. This could be llike the last crappy event. At least it has a nice 50 50 low in place. That's a first. yeah i mentioned that earlier after 12z.. it's about as good as the natl has looked all yr maybe not including oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 maybe we'll get your usual north side superband and pop out a solid dusting. This is still intriguing because some solid precip is still awfully close. We'll have to see if we get a last minute shift but with this being less than 24 hours out now that is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's a sheared out look with the northern stream dominant. Maybe when I get home thiings will look better. This could be llike the last crappy event. At least it has a nice 50 50 low in place. That's a first. You know it's a bad winter when Wes starts using words like crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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