yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 p009 will save us! Not p007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Not p007? relying on phasing is lose. on to the zwyts storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Either way, the nrn edge of the snow shield should have a relatively "decent" band of precip moving across the area, and then pushing off to the se. That's where the best mid level frontogenesis and deformation will be. Tough to say where it sets up, but where ever this does end up developing, I could see this as a band of enhanced echoes in a broad area of relatively weak echoes, right on the nrn edge of the snow shield. Here's what I mean. Notice the area near nrn MD and srn PA. There is some decent mid level frontogenesis at 700mb, indicating by the convergence of vectors and also lift present. You can also see in the 850-500mb vv/rh chart of the little max area of deeper moisture over srn PA at 09z Sunday. This is a very weak signal, but I could almost envision an area of lighter echoes and a band of more enhanced echoes moving from wnw-ese over the area. Maybe MD or srn PA? I think placement is the question. Also, boundary layer issues may happen if the GFS is right, so higher elevations will have two advantages. Extra lift on ne flow and colder boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 annnd hampton roads gets the shaft again. we got the precip, just need the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 p009 will save us! I haven't had access to the internet for the last two days. Had to drive to a funeral. Even now I'm on a PC without all my bookkmarks. Makes lloking at everything awkward. For us, I don't see accumulations as it looks like light precip and marginal boundary layers. If it's more I[ll look like a lazy bum to the CWG crowd as there was no way i could look at stuff until now and even now it wouuld be hard writing any article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Maybe we can get that little system on Monday night edge closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I haven't had access to the internet for the last two days. Had to drive to a funeral. Even now I'm on a PC without all my bookkmarks. Makes lloking at everything awkward. For us, I don't see accumulations as it looks like light precip and marginal boundary layers. If it's more I[ll look like a lazy bum to the CWG crowd as there was no way i could look at stuff until now and even now it wouuld be hard writing any article. I'm sure they'll live. Hope all is well. My major inquiry assuming/if they are wrong is why the ensembles of the gfs have been so much more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Note: why don't we try calling this the psuhoffman storm or something for luck Ian? That one was a great one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm sure they'll live. Hope all is well. My major inquiry assuming/if they are wrong is why the ensembles of the gfs have been so much more bullish. A good question. Case in point the 18z GFS ensemble mean... there is a large area of 0.25+ QPF over the area and the 0c 850 line is right over top of DC and moving south at hr 36. At hr 48, there 850s are -3ish and 0.10 QPF around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Note: why don't we try calling this the psuhoffman storm or something for luck Ian? That one was a great one. Yeah, Ian.. Hop on that tout de suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Individual ensembles LOOK like they could be snow at 30 and 36... but the 850 0c line isn't that far away to the south on most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah, Ian.. Hop on that tout de suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm sure they'll live. Hope all is well. My major inquiry assuming/if they are wrong is why the ensembles of the gfs have been so much more bullish. In general, it's not that surprising that they are so different. The current operational GEFS members are run at ~1/3 the resolution of the operational (i.e. very coarse), and even utilize a different (older) set of physical parameterizations. There is a resolution increase for the GEFS members scheduled to happen this month. As to why they are more bullish for this particular event, I'd have to do some more digging as I haven't been paying that close attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I don't think the models really have a clue yet...doesn't mean it will be in our favor, but the SREF and 18Z ENS mean are still much wetter than the OPS.....This is a tricky synoptic setup in a rapidly changing pattern with many moving pieces and involving a phase.....the northern stream s/w is still in Alberta....We have a general idea but the details are going to keep changing...... My WAG (not worth much) is whether or not the northern stream is more amplified or not the s/w is going to be quicker than progged.....this could mean an earlier/deeper phase and better storm (SREF/ENS)....or it could mean a progressive semi-whiff with no phase or 2-parts (Euro)...I think the 18z GFS solution is the least likely of the latest solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 In general, it's not that surprising that they are so different. The current operational GEFS members are run at ~1/3 the resolution of the operational (i.e. very coarse), and even utilize a different (older) set of physical parameterizations. There is a resolution increase for the GEFS members scheduled to happen this month. As to why they are more bullish for this particular event, I'd have to do some more digging as I haven't been paying that close attention. too busy working on Roseanne's election? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I don't think the models really have a clue yet...doesn't mean it will be in our favor, but the SREF and 18Z ENS mean are still much wetter than the OPS.....This is a tricky synoptic setup in a rapidly changing pattern with many moving pieces and involving a phase.....the northern stream s/w is still in Alberta....We have a general idea but the details are going to keep changing...... My WAG (not worth much) is whether or not the northern stream is more amplified or not the s/w is going to be quicker than progged.....this could mean an earlier/deeper phase and better storm (SREF/ENS)....or it could mean a progressive semi-whiff with no phase or 2-parts (Euro)...I think the 18z GFS solution is the least likely of the latest solutions Good post and i agree... this might be one of those systems that we might not get a firm grip till the 12z runs tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 spot on zwyts. evolution in this case is near impossible to nail down until the interaction is fully resolved. i don't care how well a model is programmed. With this setup, tiny shifts can = very large downstream solutions. Tomorrow is either going to be really fun or...........well, let's not even think about that...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Not really on topic here but a cool shot anyway. That's a pretty expansive ull spinning over the plains. If you run various loops it really gives you an idea of how complicated the setup is. You can see the ns vort up in canada getting ready to head into the us. Tomorrow is going to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Note: why don't we try calling this the psuhoffman storm or something for luck Ian? That one was a great one. psuhoffman hasn't posted in quite some time...we only name it after a person that is bullish on a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The synoptic setup is pretty interesting and uncommon I think....I think this event has very high bust potential in either direction, but probably more against us since we live in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The synoptic setup is pretty interesting and uncommon I think....I think this event has very high bust potential in either direction, but probably more against us since we live in DC If this event craps the bed, at least we have an interesting pattern over the next 10-15 days.....I think we will be doing a lot of model watching....hopefully something will pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 If this event craps the bed, at least we have an interesting pattern over the next 10-15 days.....I think we will be doing a lot of model watching....hopefully something will pan out agreed, there was a lot of complaining when the models backed off the long range cold a few days ago, but the pattern still looks much better till about the 17th or so....not perfect, but having a chance is a lot better than what we have come out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 If this event craps the bed, at least we have an interesting pattern over the next 10-15 days.....I think we will be doing a lot of model watching....hopefully something will pan out It certainly looks more interesting than a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks like 6 of the 11 individ 18z GFS ensembles on Raleigh give around 2" of snow in DC. 2 are close (1" or so) and 3 are nothing or very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks like 6 of the 11 individ 18z GFS ensembles on Raleigh give around 2" of snow in DC. 2 are close (1" or so) and 3 are nothing or very little I think 10 ot the 11 give my area greater than 1" and 3 are 4" +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks like 6 of the 11 individ 18z GFS ensembles on Raleigh give around 2" of snow in DC. 2 are close (1" or so) and 3 are nothing or very little I'm setting the sucess bar very low with this event.... I need to see: Snow falling: If no real stickage needs to be 0.5 mi viz at some point or if just -SN needs to stick to cars, grass, etc.... non accumulating -SN will be nice to watch but will not meet the criteria for success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 1" IMBY or FAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The synoptic setup is pretty interesting and uncommon I think....I think this event has very high bust potential in either direction, but probably more against us since we live in DC I think DC is in the precip shield- just a question of all snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I think 10 ot the 11 give my area greater than 1" and 3 are 4" +. we need one of the varsity operational models (GFS or Euro) to wax us good at some point....looking for inspiration from ensembles and junior varsity models is starting to make me feel icky and gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Widespread T-1" looks accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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