Sunny and Warm Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Found this nice animation that shows the current Nina in the East Pacific at shallow depths, but also shows a large warm anomoly in the West Pacific at around 150m. It appears to pushing against the Nina, so this could be the first signs of a coming Nino. I'm not certain of lag times, but since it's only early February, there's plenty of time for a weak Nino by fall. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah that could be the starting of an El Nino. Some meteorologist have suggested a switch to El Nino conditions during the summer. La Nina usually doesn't last more than 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 If this upcoming MJO episode is able to successfully propagate eastward, I think the chances go up substantially of a El Nino resurgence in 2012. This would generally support the increased propagation of kelvin waves that would in fact help to push warmer waters eastward through low level westerly wind bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Look from my studies in school have showed a 60-70% chance of El Nino after back to back La Ninas. Only about 20-30% for 3rd La Nina. Super slim for neutral but it can happen. From what it looks like to me we will be having a weak-moderate west based El Nino and that little boy will start too truly show his face around Christmas 2012 like usual. Just a preliminary and not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Look from my studies in school have showed a 60-70% chance of El Nino after back to back La Ninas. Only about 20-30% for 3rd La Nina. Super slim for neutral but it can happen. From what it looks like to me we will be having a weak-moderate west based El Nino and that little boy will start too truly show his face around Christmas 2012 like usual. Just a preliminary and not a forecast. A west based Nino is more favorable to a good winter in the USA northeast than an east based Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 If this upcoming MJO episode is able to successfully propagate eastward, I think the chances go up substantially of a El Nina resurgence in 2012. This would generally support the increased propagation of kelvin waves that would in fact help to push warmer waters eastward through low level westerly wind bursts. El Nina?! Not sure if you meant el niño, or la Nina. Judging by your eastern push statement, I'm sure you meant el niño.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Sunny and Warm, West based weak-moderate El Nino"s are the best when it comes to above average snowfall, but not always the cold. If teleconnections are right, then you have winters like 2002-2003 or 2009-2010. The window for winters like that for the mid-Atlantic at 1:7 ratio. Yes it can happen every couple of years, but chances for well above average I lean on the ratio. I believe there will be lots of excitement forecasting next winter 2012-2013. Does not mean at all that it can happen next year, because it could. I know crazy JB theory is one to watch, or just laugh at if he is wrong. His theory makes lots of sense to me and I am serious. I have always thought weather runs in cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Sunny and Warm, West based weak-moderate El Nino"s are the best when it comes to above average snowfall, but not always the cold. If teleconnections are right, then you have winters like 2002-2003 or 2009-2010. The window for winters like that for the mid-Atlantic at 1:7 ratio. Yes it can happen every couple of years, but chances for well above average I lean on the ratio. I believe there will be lots of excitement forecasting next winter 2012-2013. Does not mean at all that it can happen next year, because it could. I know crazy JB theory is one to watch, or just laugh at if he is wrong. His theory makes lots of sense to me and I am serious. I have always thought weather runs in cycles Yes, meant snow, not cold. "Good" winters to me mean snow without the bitter cold. Although where I live now, it doesn't much matter. As to your last point, there are a myriad of oscillations in the atmosphere, and I dare say we probably haven't even discovered half of them yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.