CooL Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Strong chance that the GFS ensemble mean is out to lunch with a few shots of vodka too. For whatever reason they have been worse than awful lately. people are too quick to forget 2/6/10. The gfs ens mean always smooths things out and make things appear more north and juicier than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The GEFS doesn't have the resolution to resolve strong precip cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Ukie is the outlier here. Way south of the GGEM,Nam,GEFS and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 anyone remember the GEFS for the Feb 5, 2010..had MAJOR precip getting up here...nope, didnt happen..and neither is this...we wont see ONE FLAKE OR DROP of precip from this... Based on latest MOS, an ~20% chance of a rain or snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 people are too quick to forget 2/6/10. The gfs ens mean always smooths things out and make things appear more north and juicier than reality. I honestly can't believe this storm is still being discussed as a threat. Synoptic meteorology over models. It was laid out nicely by tornadojay earlier and many others. CAA...NW flow..no moisture...the chances of anybody in our forum seeing a flake are incredibly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I honestly can't believe this storm is still being discussed as a threat. Synoptic meteorology over models. It was laid out nicely by tornadojay earlier and many others. CAA...NW flow..no moisture...the chances of anybody in our forum seeing a flake are incredibly low. this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 What else is there to talk about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I honestly can't believe this storm is still being discussed as a threat. Synoptic meteorology over models. It was laid out nicely by tornadojay earlier and many others. CAA...NW flow..no moisture...the chances of anybody in our forum seeing a flake are incredibly low. It's an extremely unlikely threat. But the "synoptic" argument is actually based on the modeling that says we'll have CAA, a NW flow, no moisture etc... Sure, from a synoptic standpoint you can argue that the s/w trof axis is too far east (and it is) and that the baroclinic zone is offshore. But we're still mostly relying on the models to tell us what is synoptically possible. If the s/w dives further SW and buckles the flow up the coast then all of a sudden we have WAA, SW flow, and moisture. Yes it's pretty clear that this is a miss, but you don't have to look at a forecast souding to see that. And you also can't point to a forecast sounding to prove why this is an impossible event. Because it's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I honestly can't believe this storm is still being discussed as a threat. Synoptic meteorology over models. It was laid out nicely by tornadojay earlier and many others. CAA...NW flow..no moisture...the chances of anybody in our forum seeing a flake are incredibly low. absolutely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 What else is there to talk about? The next weekend storm; which has a much better chance; Gulf low, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The next weekend storm; which has a much better chance; Gulf low, etc. I think it has the better chance for something significant. But since the GFS ensembles now bring light-mod precip. to Philly, I guess there's an outside chance NYC could see minor accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 a met posted last nite that this may not be resolved to the kicker comes on shore...which will be..... the 0z models tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 SREF went north again with the precip. . 10 line is close to the south shores. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F03%2F2012+15UTC&rname=PRECIP+MEANSPRD&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=054&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 SREF went north again with the precip. . 10 line is close to the south shores. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Its dead anthony. It has been dead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 a met posted last nite that this may not be resolved to the kicker comes on shore...which will be..... the 0z models tonite. By then, I hope we finally get agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Its dead anthony. It has been dead! I am just holding on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 SREF went north again with the precip. . 10 line is close to the south shores. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Interesting that this is the furthest north the SREFs have shown the precipitation getting for this storm. Let's see what happens once the energy gets better sampled at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 18z Nam is south with the precip and slightly south from the 12z run. Sref goes north and Nam goes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 18z Nam is south with the precip and slightly south from the 12z run. Sref goes north and Nam goes south The differences in the models right now is simply unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am just holding on It is a long, long shot my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I agree that we should get another 1 or 2 small to moderate snowfalls. With a Feb snowfall at least the accumulations stick around for a while but the March accumulations melt away too quickly. Wishful thinking! in 2001-02 the AO was negative for about a month in December but went very positive in January 2002 and beyond...This year the AO was very positive and now changed to negative...la nina is stronger also..I'll settle for a Feb/Mar like 1975...we got 11" of snow and 8" on 2/12/75...April 75 was cold...we might be headed for a similar ending... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 in 2001-02 the AO was negative for about a month in December but went very positive in January 2002 and beyond...This year the AO was very positive and now changed to negative...la nina is stronger also..I'll settle for a Feb/Mar like 1975...we got 11" of snow and 8" on 2/12/75...April 75 was cold...we might be headed for a similar ending... From your mouth to Gods ears. I remember Tex would point to the frigid air in Alaska and say it was on its way to New York City . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 does it really matter? We'd be talking .10-.20 of QPF with temps in the 30's...what's that going to stick to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 does it really matter? We'd be talking .10-.20 of QPF with temps in the 30's...what's that going to stick to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am just holding on Instanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 SREF went north again with the precip. . 10 line is close to the south shores. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M From what I've observed with previous storms that went with more of an ESE type track, having precipitation in southern Michigan indicates that the area has a better chance of seeing snow. With this storm, precipitation doesn't make it into southern MI with most models. This one's definitely over for NYC, the most that could come out of it is probably mostly cloudy skies and some flurries to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Is it even worth it to mention that the 18Z GFS shifted south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Is it even worth it to mention that the 18Z GFS shifted south? Your a NWS met. I hope you are not playing us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Instanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. just like those with that so called pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 in 2001-02 the AO was negative for about a month in December but went very positive in January 2002 and beyond...This year the AO was very positive and now changed to negative...la nina is stronger also..I'll settle for a Feb/Mar like 1975...we got 11" of snow and 8" on 2/12/75...April 75 was cold...we might be headed for a similar ending... 2/12/75 relived ====click on gordon barnes link http://donswaim.com/wcbssoundpage.html#People Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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